18:04:56 - 30/03/2010

The beginning of the process of Armenian-Turkish "rapprochement"
has created noticeable confusion in the whole field of perception
and interpretation of the reality by the Armenian expert community.

Armenian society has found itself in a situation, when states, which
are the most influential in the region - Russia and USA - have got down
to the business of establishment of normal neighborly relations between
Armenia and Turkey with laudable diligence, announcing at the same
time, that they expect progress in Nagorno-Karabakh problem settlement
as well. Noticeably different or even conflicting approaches of these
superpowers to many other important issues have surprisingly coincided
in the case of settlement of Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, which
has become a reason for some panic among us. The panic is resulted
by the fact, that real conditions of formation of new world order,
interests of main acting sides, programs and resources, underlying
philosophy of formation of that world order and its relationship
with steps and statements of purely propaganda nature are apparently
not assessed in Armenia, NKR and Diaspora. As a result, all groups
of society - clearly feeling the danger for Armenian interests,
which first of all originates from the prospective of surrender of
liberated lands, constituting part of NKR, to azeris - instinctively
demand from our political forces and statesmen to present the vision
of the future of already unsteady Armenia-NKR-Diaspora trinity, but
up to date we did not hear anything but unclear, obscure and empty
assumptions and good wishes (we do not consider here apocalyptic,
pessimistic forecasts, since these are display of helplessness and
decrepit state and are harmful as soon as impose on us the idea of
irreversibility of processes' dangerous development for us, thus as per
se non-constructive these cannot have any practical value). One says
"I do not believe Serj will surrender territories", the other tries
to persuade us that changing of status quo in Karabakh issue is not
gainful for super powers, third one seeks to assure us, that USA do
not have a strategic program for promoting Turkey's desire to expand
to the East, etc. In reality all of these statements may be qualifies
as good wishes, in the basis of which are underlying delusions of
overcoming definitely real dangers by their optimism. We have to
admit, that if current behavior of Armenia does not change and our
nation does not gain policy development and conduction quality, then
"Serj will surrender territory", status quo will be disturbed and
subject to the nature of those processes, USA may promote Turkey's
potential desire to expand to the East as well.

All of these may become reality within the scope of logic of new
world order formation and unless we understand what logic it is,
we will also not be able to understand our own steps, will be
helpless re neutralization of military, physical, economic, morale
dangers threatening us. The format of this article does not enable
end-to-end and comprehensive presentation of all features of issue
under discussion: we will try to talk in general about main factors
formatting present global situation and make some forecasts regarding
possible alternatives of further development of the situation,
by examining in that context the role of Armenia and its future
prospective as well.

I do not think that one may argue that collapse of USSR has been a huge
driver for recent global geopolitical changes. It is the collapse of
USSR that has proclaimed fall of bipolar world order, result of which
have been the initiation of globalization, NATO and EU enlargement by
USA and its allies. Countries which are opponents of these processes'
development, accuse, that USA along with its closest allies seek to
establish their rule in the whole world and as an alternative offer
the idea of multi-polar world. Let's first try to characterize what
is "establishment of global rule" (hereinafter EGR) by any country
or group of countries.

EGR phenomena may be characterized as the establishment of rule of
one group of people over all other groups under some organizational
form, with all resulting material advantages. During known history
of mankind EGR has had its substantial and semantic-philosophic
development phases: a) intra-continental phase - when struggle for
EGR has had geographical limitations and it has been possible to talk
about although huge in territorial sense, but only partial EGR by any
state formation. This phase is particularly typical for Eurasia and
Central and South America (before conquista) and has displayed through
Achaemenid Iran, the Hellenic Empire of Alexander the Great and Rome's
Republican Empires, which have been followed by Byzantine Empire,
Arabian Caliphate and Turk-Mongolian Empires, as well as through Maya,
Aztec and Inca states, b) new geographical appropriations' phase -
when relevant balance of powers settled down in Eurasian territory
forced part of European countries to start capturing and colonization
of geographical zones located out of Eurasian territory, as a result of
which Great Britain, Spain, Holland, Portugal and France have become
transoceanic empires, there has ended the process of capturing of the
whole livable territory of the Earth's land and determination of its
nationality, c) I phase of struggle for integral EGR - this phase has
reached the peak of its development in the beginning of 20th century,
when most economically powerful countries have divided into two
rival camps and have started WW1, as a result of which victory fell
to the share of Anglo-Saxon wing and its allies. This has been the
first and unsuccessful attempt to establish uni-polar world order,
d) II phase of struggle for integral EGR - this phase has started by
WW2. This war again has ended with the victory of Anglo-Saxon wing,
but this time there has been formed a bipolar world order, one pole
of which has constituted of most developed countries and Japan, with
exceptional Anglo-American leadership, and the other pole - of USSR
with its Eastern European allies and China, e) Phase of struggle for
EGR in post-soviet period, principles of formation of new world order
-we are currently witnesses and participants of this phase.

It should be underlined here, that struggle for EGR has objective
nature, and it does not depend on personal preferences and wishes. The
peculiarity of that struggle is the fact that its final result assumes
establishment of uni-polar world order, and the paradox is that
establishment of uni-polar world contains objective preconditions for
its break-up. EGR by any state or alliance lets it secure the highest
level of own standard of life, managing of material, financial and
intellectual resources of the resting world, and besides intrusion
of its value system to the others as a consequence. Transformation
of multi-polar or bipolar world order into uni-polar and recurrence
of opposite process are conditioned by some peculiarities lying
in the basis of human economic activity, turning to which here is
not appropriate; still we have to mention that realization of this
geopolitical changes has usually been accompanied by very significant
human and material losses. It comes out that on one hand struggle
for EGR and uni-polar world is inevitable, and on the other hand
unipolarity is temporary phenomena and after its establishment there
should be expected a break-up of the pole and establishment of bi-
or multipolarity. This is the principle. Results of WW2 - victory
of USA-Great Britain-USSR alliance over Germany and its allies
and formation of socialistic countries camp leaded by USSR - have
provided to the West a unique chance to breach this principle. This
has given a possibility to establish a false bipolar world order
which has existed until the collapse of USSR. This bipolarity has
been false, since alliances of states of which have consisted poles
have formulated objectives of struggle for EGR in different ways,
which has provided Anglo-American alliance a unique chance to gather
around it world's most developed Western European countries and Japan,
i.e. even its former enemies. The declared core of this group has
been the struggle against Soviet expansionism. Using the fact that
USSR has been struggling for EGR solely in ideological field and
has been spending huge resources for success in it, Anglo-American
alliance has reached absolute advantage in the economic sphere,
securing sharp and unprecedented growth of its and its ally states'
living standard, with all subsequent advantages. By initiating the cold
war Anglo-American alliance has prevented struggle for EGR between
Western states and has secured its own leadership among allies. The
"confidential" transfer of nuclear weapon production technology to
the USSR has served for the same purpose. Thereby there has developed
the so called "golden billion", that is the group of most developed
countries with about one billion of population. Existence of USSR
and its allies' camp has secured hegemony of Anglo-American alliance
within the limits of "golden billion". Dismantling and collapse of
USSR have caused serious damage to those positions. As long as there
has existed USSR Anglo-American alliance has had no reasons to be
afraid of loosing its influence in European Union and especially on
French-German core. USSR successor - new Russia - has in fact applied
for participation in "golden billion" by refusing from ideological
struggle for EGR and communism doctrine. In the judgment of ruling
Russian elite Russia has made the most important steps required for
joining "golden billion": It has collapsed USSR, Has refused from
communism doctrine, Has stopped being military threat for the West.

By the effort of Anglo-American alliance that application has been
denied and there has been developed a stronghold consisting of
Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and Georgia to separate Russia from
its potential European allies. Joining of Russia to "golden billion"
club will jeopardize Anglo-American positions, since it may create a
temptation to establish Russian-French-German alliance, thus resulting
in appearance of poles within the scope of "golden billion" itself and
blow it up from the inside. This is a very serious threat not only for
Anglo-American domination within the framework of "golden billion",
but is also fraught with the danger of beginning of WW3. It is obvious
that in nuclear world this scenario will be disastrous. Therefore,
the issue should be solved in a way, that while staying out of "golden
billion", Russia will get a sufficient role and weight in the world,
within the context of economic processes of on-going global changes.

In that sense it has been very important, that during the convention
of Russia's ruling party "United Russia" there has been adopted the
new ideological doctrine of Russia - Russian conservatism, which may
be considered as declaration of refusal of RF from struggle for EGR.

Our impression is that repulsiveness of Anglo-American alliance has
become an unpleasant surprise for the establishment of RF during
1990s. Administrations of Putin and Medvedev, succeeding Yeltsin,
perhaps have perceived this Anglo-American rejecting position as a
reality, which rather than deep analysis requires counteraction. As a
result of that, foreign and home policy carried out by RF during last
decade has accordingly become more aggressive and authoritarian, and
its most bright display has been Russian-Georgian war. It maybe said
that Anglo-American alliance has succeeded in modeling the process of
geopolitical developments in a way that Russia by itself has perhaps
unwillingly become their ally through scaring away Europeans by its
actions. We suppose that the surprising coincidence of approaches, that
show USA, Great Britain and Russia in the processes of Armenian-Turkish
rapprochement and Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, should be considered in
this very context. At that, currently it is noticeable even by naked
eye that through excitation of Armenian issue and threat of official
recognition of Armenian Genocide USA is simply causing anti-American
moods in Turkey, thus stimulating the tendency of the establishment of
that country to obtain strategic partner in the person of Russia. At
the same time it may be said that USA is coolly watching unprecedented
persecutions of top-level militaries, which are its support in Turkey,
without interfering into developments in no way. It may be said
that USA has simply surrendered militaries, which are their trusted
and faithful support in Turkey, to political opponents. If process
continues with the same logic then Turkey will also be once and for
all left out of "golden billion" like Russia, which will naturally lead
to the establishment of Russian-Turkish strategic alliance. By the way
there should be underlined that new Russian doctrine of conservatism is
substantially affected by the ideology of "eurasism", which advocates
the necessity of the establishment of Turkic-Slavonic alliance. That
is, currently there are already in place philosophical-ideological,
economic (unprecedented growth of Russian-Turkish commodity turnover)
and geopolitical (necessity of development and launching of dangers
originating from the East for the purpose of securing Anglo-American
element's domination within European Union) preconditions for the
establishment of RF-Turkey alliance. In the end, this alliance will
form geopolitical zone of modern "barbarians", which will be called
on one side to secure Anglo-American domination in EU by terrorizing
Europeans, and to balance growing ambitions of China on the other,
while at the same time fragmenting Eurasia into three large confronting
parts. Presently, for Russia there is perhaps foreseen the leading role
in the geopolitical camp of "barbarians", which will separate European
Union from South-Eastern Asia. Turkey, which has chosen Islamism, may
deservingly pretend for the role of number two in that camp. This camp,
which will include Russia, Turkey, Central Asian countries, so far
part of South Caucasus, Iran, Pakistan, the most part of Arab world,
thanks to its exceptional cultural, religious, ethnic and economic
multiplicity and antipathy, will be a zone of cultural instability and
conflicts. Existence of such zone is aimed at securing the exceptional
Anglo-American domination within "golden billion", including European
Union, which will in its turn secure the preservation of USA-Great
Britain tandem's leading positions in the world.

This kind of perspective of geopolitical developments contains both
serious threats and some new possibilities for Armenia. In this new,
ripening situation there have been once again seriously activated
the excitation of and speculations over Armenian question (i.e.,
Armenian-Turkish relations) and Nagorno-Karabakh issue. There is
being made an attempt to direct geopolitical processes taking place
in South Caucasus through internationalization of Genocide carried out
by Turkish authorities during WW1 and through turning consequences of
division of Armenia by the efforts of Russian-Azeri-Turkish alliance
in 1920-1922 into a good instrument for formation of "barbarian's"
zone. Recognition of the Armenian Genocide especially by USA, Great
Britain and Israel is a very serious and real threat for Turkey both
from the point of view of territorial integrity preservation and
undesirable perspective of paying huge compensation to the Armenian
nation, exposed to Genocide. The problem of Armenian territories found
within Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhijevan issues,
are natural and logical outcome of Russian-Azeri-Turkish alliance's
actions. Thanks to that alliance Bolshevik Russia has established
its rule in South Caucasus and by means of Moscow and Kars Treaties
there has been solved the issue of future USSR-Turkey border, thanks
to Turkey Caucasian Tatars have got a chance to found a state on
a territory, which has been unsuitable with their ethnic, economic
and military potential, and Turkey - by creating preconditions for
securing its geopolitical advancement to the East and direct land
communication with the resting Turkic world, whenever there will be
an opportunity - has also neutralized threat originating from Armenia
and has recaptured Cilicia and some other territories by concentrating
its force in the West. We have to admit that Armenian state, in the
form of Soviet Armenia, has been preserved by the efforts of Russians
and solely for one reason - not letting Turkey to have its dreamed
direct land communication with sovietized Turkic world - Caucasian
Tatars and autonomous Turkic state formations within Central Asia
and Russia, since it has been obvious that in the course of time that
could have become a serious threat for the existence of USSR. After
the collapse of USSR the realities of 1918-1922 have returned and
interests of super powers and their actions proceeding from latter are
aimed at solving global problems through aggravating Armenian-Turkish
and Armenian-Azeri relations. We have to get used to the reality,
that main geopolitical meaning of Armenia for the great ones of this
world is related with separation of Turkey from the resting Turkic
world and having unsolved and seemingly unsolvable international and
territorial problems with neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan. In this
circumstances the price of the formation of Russian-Turkish alliance
proceeding from Anglo-American interest will be once again paid at the
expense of Armenian interests - Armenia and NKR will have to surrender
liberated territories and in that sense some ideological preparations
by the authorities of RA and NKR are already being marked. It may
be said, that formation of Russian-Turkish alliance will also mean
that by finally refusing from the idea of becoming part of "golden
billion" Russia actually agrees with the role that Great Britain,
USA and Israel prepare for it.

If Russian-Turkish alliance does not happen due to some reasons,
then geopolitical role of Turkey will continue decreasing, which will
most probably lead to internal explosion. The fact that military
elite of Turkey is currently deprived from huge foreign support of
the past is also a factor promoting it. Long-drawn destabilization
of situation in Turkey is also an acceptable choice from the point
of view of Anglo-American interests; with the only difference that
there will be necessary to put additional efforts for the prevention of
rapprochement of Russia and French-German core of EU. Such development
may also lead to loss of territories within the context of settlement
of Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since now it will make Azerbaijan to seek
ways for rapprochement with RF - by letting Russia to restore its
exceptional strategic presence in Azerbaijan Republic in return for
liberated territories, which are part of NKR.

Surrender of territories by NKR is also foreseen by the settlement
scenario suggested by Minsk Group, and Armenian-Turkish protocols
maybe considered as an additional factor supporting the realization
of that scenario. That scenario with all of its additional factors
may be qualified as false mean, declared objectives and real possible
outcomes of which have no connection at all.

In any case in all above mentioned scenarios geopolitical role of
Armenia and Armenian question in the wide sense is invariable - it
is the role of separator of Turkey from Turkic world, enemy and at
the same time the victim of Turkey. That is, all centers developing
and realizing policy on a global scale - USA, Great Britain, Russia,
China, France, Israel, some influential states of the Middle East -
have always encouraged, intensified and used Armenian-Turkish conflict
for their interests.

Existence of the Armenian question and confrontation with Armenians
has become a very serious challenge for Turkish state especially
starting from the second half of 19th century and up to now. As
a result, from the large number of Armenians living on a territory
lying between Constantinople and Baku there has remained a small wedge
populated by Armenians, which includes only population of Artsakh,
Javaghk and the Republic of Armenia, and Armenian question remains
one of the most important instruments of international powers for
putting pressure on Turkey.

Perhaps we (we mean Armenia and Turkey) will finally understand
that unless Armenia is not ready to change its geopolitical role
and Turkey refuses to understand strategic issues and interests of
Armenia requiring satisfaction related with the change of that role,
the situation will not change and ultimately either Turkey will sink
into a stream of long-drawn mutiny and decay, or the existence of
Armenian state and Armenian nation will appear under the danger of
disappearance in this last part of its cradle. We may witness that
current situation does not contain even minimal grounds for optimism.

Quality and substance of Armenian-Turkish relations may change only in
one case - if Turkey and Armenia realize that in strategic, long-term
sense current quality of relations is an extreme threat for them and
even collapse of one will not mean any benefit for the other. They
may win only together and by joint efforts.

As an example of such possible merging of efforts we will present
below a scenario, realization of which is up to will of authorities
and people of Turkey and Armenia and may solve both more than 100-year
old Armenian-Turkish cruel confrontation and Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

It is also very important that the program may be realized within
the context of both Russian interests and interests of other centers
of force. Suggested scenario, taking into account prevalent moods in
Armenia and Turkey, is so far theoretical, but taking into account
its major advantages for sides, we also do not rule out that its
international discussion may become an incentive for its practical
realization as well. Its major peculiarity is the fact that:

·In case of Turkey - it removes the obstacle for having direct land
communication with Turkic world, liquidates morale and legal effects
of the Armenian Genocide, as well as the opportunity of using the fact
of the Genocide as an instrument used against Turkey by super powers,
substantially reduces hostility and distrust of Diaspora and Armenia
people against Turkey,

·In case of Azerbaijan - it removes the obstacle for direct land
communication with its closest ally Turkey, provides a possibility
to return some of territories lost during Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
particularly in Trans-Araxian region and to realize re-settlement
of that territories, creates preconditions for a real Armenian-Azeri
reconciliation, ·In case of Armenia - it removes the danger of ever
being blockaded, provides persons subjected to Genocide in Turkey
and Azerbaijan and their heirs a possibility of receiving partial
compensation for material and morale losses sustained by them. Armenia
will unintentionally become one of the transit countries of the region.

In case of existence of such desire Turkey and Azerbaijan and,
respectively, Armenia and NKR may unite in one state or create
federative or confederative state formations. For the purpose
of escaping transformation of problems related with cultural and
historical heritage into political, territorial disputes, territory
of that formations may be declared a territory of Armenian-Turkish
or Armenian-Islamic heritage.

The basis for such development of events should be the exchange
of territories of strategic significance, unprecedented for sides,
in case of which Armenia and NKR transfer to Turkey and Azerbaijan
respectively Meghri region and Trans-Araxian liberated territories,
by being deprived of common border with Iran, and in return Turkey
transfers to Armenia a corridor with average width of 50-60 km with
an outlet to the Black Sea, thanks to which Armenia may not only
not be afraid of land blockade, but will also have in its territory
the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway. A global center, which will support
this program, will also get new, exceptional possibilities to have
an influence on geopolitical processes in the whole Eurasia and for
preservation or establishment of its EGR. Moreover, this scenario also
provides an opportunity for long-term cooperation of two power centers.

P.S. Except above mentioned, this scenario also contains number of
other advantages of strategic nature for Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan
and NKR, but for realization of all of these our societies should
be able to overcome the existing exceptional egocentrism and give
preference to strategic and long-term mutually beneficial solutions.

P.P.S. Presence of nuclear weapon in modern world compels new strategy
and tactics for settlement of interstate disputes and for winning
economic competition even to super powers. Use of force against a
country which has nuclear weapon (e.g. Iran) is very improbable. This
means that victory over such country is possible either by means of
application of strict economic sanctions (effectiveness of which is
usually low) or through disintegration and ruining of functioning of
public administration system using internal resources existing in it.

ARMAN MELIKYAN [email protected]