ON FORECASTS
Gagik Terteryan

http://noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=5744
02.05.2011

The efficient activity of our political elite assumes adequate expert
service. In particular, political leadership must have an opportunity
to receive from the expert community the elaborations concerning:

~Upatterns and peculiarities of the history of Armenia and Armeniancy
("knowledge of past"); ~Uintellectual and economic potential
and problems of the national society, taking into consideration
the factor of multiculturalism, multilingualism and adherence to
various confessions of some part of the Armeniancy; ~Usocial and
economic, demographic and domestic political situation in the RA,
NKR and Javakhq; ~Ucontent and orientation of the military and
political processes in the region; ~Ulogics and tendencies of global
civilizational, geopolitical, macro-economic and social processes
("adequate perception of the world order"); ~Upossible developments
and scenarios in military-political, social-economic and other spheres
in short-term, mid-term and long-term outlook ("knowledge of future").

Such kind of work implies more orderliness and availability of
appropriate expert community which is possible only under the
consolidation of the resources of the entire Armeniancy with the
usage of possibilities of modern informational and communicational
technologies.

At the same time the efficient activity of the expert and research
community is possible only when national and political elite:

~Udefines clearly formulated goals to the implementation of which the
whole Armeniancy should tend, ~Uforms necessary and optimally arranged
"critical mass" of the intellectual resources, ~Uprovides positive
feedback with the expert community and political elite.

Let us single out among the aforementioned issues those to which,
despite their topicality, today, in our opinion, not enough attention
is paid.

Forecasting of possible geopolitical developments. This issue is
especially topical, as Armenia is involved in military and political
processes of regional and global character. Those processes are:

~UThe process of recognition of the status of the NKR and the
Armenian Genocide by the international community and the relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey in this context; ~UThe issue of Javakhq
and issues of transport communications connected with it, complicated
relations between Russia and Georgia; ~UConfrontation of Iran with
Israel and US which directly affects Armenia; ~URadicalization of
political and national orientation in Turkey, actualization of the
Kurdish issue and relations with the Turkish republic in this context.

As a result of being involved in regional and global developments,
Armenia is very sensitive in the aspect of the current process of
formation of the multi-polar system. It is also known that multi-polar
system is less rigid and less controlled structure that is why it
tends to local conflicts and geopolitical shifts, i.e., there are more
preconditions for risks for Armenia. So, it is obvious, that in order
to implement efficient foreign policy both situational forecasting
and evaluation of possible developments in the future, revealing of
the tendencies, forecasting and drafting scenarios are necessary.

Forecasting of possible social transformations. Alongside with the
changes in the global political realities in modern world large-scale
changes in social sphere are also taking place. Mainly due to the
permanently ongoing informational and communicational revolutions the
content of inter-personal, social, intra-national and international
relations has changed.

Today the shift of the democratic societies to "post-democratic" ones
is taking place. Here the tendency of decreasing of the role of the
state and increasing of the role of the big business can be observed.

As a result of those processes in globalized network
internet-communities new, virtual forms of democracy appear and
formation of a "virtual human" (homo virtualicus) is taking place.

Those changes, according to some researchers, may even acquire
revolutionary form, the rudiments of which can be observed not only
in developing countries but also in Europe. It is obvious that all
those processes cannot but affect Armeniancy without any geographic
restrictions.

It is natural that under such dynamic conditions the efficient
managing of the state and society is possible only with the usage
of data about evolution of the national and public consciousness and
main trends of its transformations.

On the methods of researches. The researches in the aforementioned
spheres are supposed to be carried out in the following way:

~UTo analyze in the context of the national interests the forecasts
and scenarios elaborated by leading research centers which concern
the developments in the aforementioned spheres of both global and
regional scale. This function should be undertaken by a group of
specially chosen analysts.

~UTo order works on forecasting to the restricted number of experts
(no more than two experts in each sphere) who will be chosen in
accordance with the criteria set in advance. Such a method, which is
implemented in order to economize the resources, can conditionally be
called "Focus Delphi" as, unlike "Delphi method", it does not require
involvement of a big number of experts. The works are carried out
by the experts from Diaspora and Armenia with the involvement of
appropriate specialists of the leading world centers.

~ULogical, comparative and content analysis of the acquired results.

~UComplex discussion of the results with the usage of interdisciplinary
approaches and "brain storming" methods.

~UOn the ground of the discussions resulting documents are drafted and
conception for the implementation of the next stage of the researches
is elaborated.

~UThe resulting documents and recommendations based on them as well
as the plans of further researches are submitted to the heads of
the state and national structures which are responsible for decision
making on the level of Armenia and Armeniancy.

~UPart of the materials is published in the form of the an annual and
is widely spread over the information space (based on the concepts
of "future formation" through the information on the futuristic
forecasts).

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Another materials of author

~UPAX AMERICANA-2, OR GOOD BYE, AMERICA?[18.01.2010] ~USYSTEM SECURITY
AND INFORMATION SECURITY OF ARMENIANCY[25.12.2008] ~USTATE - CHURCH -
SOCIETY: ISSUES OF SPIRITUAL SECURITY[27.10.2008] ~UON THE COMPLEX OF
INFERIORITY AND "TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM"[04.10.2007] ~UNAGORNO-KARABAKH:
WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT?[16.07.2007]




From: A. Papazian