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TBILISI: Separatist provinces are about to become part of Russia

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  • TBILISI: Separatist provinces are about to become part of Russia

    Rezonansi, Tbilisi, Georgia
    Aug 30 2008


    Separatist provinces are about to become part of Russia


    Mari Otarashvili


    Abkhazia, South Ossetia seeking membership of military alliance

    It was reported yesterday that Abkhazia is planning to join the
    Russia-Belarus union. Abkhazia is effectively prepared to become a
    Russian province. Russia, meanwhile, it taking some steps to safeguard
    the security of the separatist republics: along with preparing to
    establish military bases there, Moscow is also working to make them
    part of the "collective security system".

    If countries like Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
    and Uzbekistan follow Russia's example and recognize the independence
    of Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia, they will have to send
    their troops to the two provinces in the event of an armed
    conflict. Political analyst Mamuka Areshidze has suggested, however,
    that this is mere PR since these republics are actually under Russia's
    protection.

    Following Russia's decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia
    and the so-called South Ossetia on 26 August, the two provinces are
    expected to from a military alliance with Moscow. Russia's Interfax
    news agency has reported that Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia
    could become members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
    [CSTO]. According to the same source, the member-states of the
    organization will discuss the possible accession of Abkhazia and the
    so-called South Ossetia on 5 September.

    Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
    Uzbekistan are the current members of the CSTO. If these countries
    recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, their
    accession to the organization will only be a matter of time.

    What is CSTO and how important is it for Abkhazia and the so-called
    South Ossetia to join it? Rezonansi spoke to political analyst Mamuka
    Areshidze about these questions.

    Armenia, Belarus likely to recognize separatist republics

    [Rezonansi] Are Belarus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
    Uzbekistan to follow Russia's example and recognize the independence
    of Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia?

    [Areshidze] Most of the residents of these countries are
    pro-Russian. It is possible that such a precedent (the accession of
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia to the organization) will create another
    precedent. At any rate, Russia has been working for a long time now to
    make this happen. Since Kazakhstan has been Russia's ally, Moscow has
    worked intensively in that country. However, Kazakhstan also has
    certain ties with Georgia, which is the reason why Nazarbayev has
    refrained from supporting Russia's move.

    Tajikistan has a puppet government that has only been able to retain
    power through the support of the Russian armed forces. Kyrgyzstan is
    under dual influence. As you know, there is a US military base
    there. Russia will therefore find it quite difficult to obtain the
    country's consent. As for Uzbekistan, its leader always acts according
    to the situation and hence it is possible that he will take certain
    steps on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    I am convinced that Armenia and Belarus are the two countries that are
    set to support the recognition of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's
    independence.

    [Rezonansi] What kind of an organization is the CSTO and how valuable
    would its membership be for Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia?

    [Areshidze] If these countries recognize the independence of Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia, they will have a duty to ensure their
    security. This means that they will have to send their troops and
    armaments to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the event of a war.

    [Rezonansi] Does this mean that the membership is important?

    [Areshidze] I would not say that it is important as it is more of a PR
    move. Should a conflict arise, the Russian army would once again have
    to be the "saviour" of the Abkhaz and the Ossetians. This is PR as
    they want to show that an international organization has backed
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They do not have the resources to aid the
    Abkhaz and the Ossetians. The powerful Russia will have to protect
    them but it still wants to be able to say that an international
    organization has recognized the independence of the separatist
    republics.

    [translated from Georgian]
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