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BAKU: New Transnistria Precedent - ANALYTIC

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  • BAKU: New Transnistria Precedent - ANALYTIC

    NEW TRANSNISTRIA PRECEDENT - ANALYTICS

    Azeri Press Agency
    May 29 2008
    Azerbaijan

    New model may be formed on settlement of frozen conflicts

    Bucharest. Dr. Fakhri Karimli-APA. All the conflicts inherited from
    the former USSR are in the area of GUAM member states: Abkhazia, South
    Ossetia (Georgia), Nagorno Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Transdnestria
    (Moldova). They are also called "frozen conflicts". But it seems
    if the developments go on like this, we will soon witness "melting"
    of the latter.

    Chairman of Moldova's parliament Marian Lupu met with his counterpart
    from "Transnistria Republic of Moldova" Yevgeny Shevchuk in Brussels
    on May 14. They decided to restore the discussions on Transnistrian
    conflict as soon as possible. They discussed free travel of people
    along both banks of the Dniester and mutual confidence-building
    measures. The meeting on this level was last held seven years
    ago. Shevchuk's visit to Brussels is also interesting from other
    aspect, he is the first separatist leader to enter the area of EU
    member states, after Moldova asked the European Union to lift the
    travel ban off the Transnistria leaders.

    The travel ban was lifted after the meeting between the President of
    Moldova Vladimir Voronin Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov in Bendery
    (Tighina) on April 14. In exchange for this, Igor Smirnov allowed
    travel of Moldovan official in the separatist republic. They decided to
    continue these contacts and dialogue on the level of commissions. The
    last meeting on this level was held in August, 2001,later the
    situation became tense after Moldova imposed political and economic
    blockade on Transnistria with the help of Ukraine and the process of
    negotiations in the format 5+2 (USA< Russia, Ukraine, European Union,
    OSCE + Moldova) was suspended. Voronin was even not allowed to attend
    the burial of his mother, who had been from Transnistria.

    "Today Moldova is close to the peaceful solution of the Transnistrian
    conflict whenever it was", said President Vladimir Voronin at the
    XV meeting of Central European leaders in Ohrid, Macedonia on May
    6. "My country is looking forward for the sustainable solution of
    this conflict only within the "5+2" format and it can be an example
    of peaceful solution of frozen conflict within the independence,
    sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country". Moldovan foreign
    minister Andrei Stratan shared the president's optimism. "Moldova
    believes in the solution of Transnistrian conflict by the end of the
    year". It is clear that EU leads the peace process formally and the
    initiative comes from Russia. Russia is playing this role not for the
    first time. Russian Kozak plan, promoted by the Russian envoy Dmitriy
    Kozak was rejected by the Moldovan president just before its signing
    in 2003 and even Russian president Vladimir Putin returned home from
    the airport. Afterwards Russian-Moldovan relations worsened sharply
    and Russia banned import of Moldovan wines. Details of current peace
    plan are not clear as Kozak plan, but it is clear that essence in
    both documents was not changed. The question is that Moldovan refusal
    of NATO integration and GUAM membership and Russian guarantee for
    the Moldovan territorial integrity instead of presence of Russian
    troops in Transnistrian region. It means that Moldova receives back
    the Transnistrian region and enters to the Russian political orbit.

    In a word, Russia began to implement new tactic on the frozen
    conflicts after the Kosovo experience. Moscow is planning to
    control not the separatist region, but entire country. It is not
    new tactic in fact. When Moscow and Kiev disputed over the Black
    Sea fleet after USSR collapse, Russia curbed separatist mood of
    local Russian-speaking population and preferred to make Ukraine its
    political hostage instead it. It resulted with the Crimean autonomous
    status and turning of Sevastopol, the base of Black Sea fleet, into
    the special territorial-administrative unit. Now Russia tries to get
    second Serbia in the Eastern Europe at Moldova's cost.

    Transnistrian conflict was always evaluated as more prospective than
    other conflicts, because it has no ethnic character and there are
    no sharp confrontation between the sides and ethnic cleansing and
    the conflict resulted with killing of few number of peoples (1000
    people). Transnistrian is populated with the relative majority of
    Moldavians. Transnistrian cars and residents are frequently seen in
    the Chisinau, who travel to Europe with Moldovan passports. There
    is experience of peaceful solution of Gagauz conflict in 1995, which
    resulted with the autonomous status of Gagauzian Republic. Moldova has
    been the agrarian country since the Soviet period and Transnistria is
    a decisive region for the country because more than half of industrial
    capacity of the country was located in this region as a result of
    intentional policy of USSR. Uniting with Moldova opens for Transnistria
    prospects of EU integration from the enclave. EU leaders repeated
    for many times that EU would sponsor unification process in Moldova.

    Moldova faced difficult choice, though it can be a new
    precedent. Igor Smirnov, current President of Transnistria has
    presented draft agreement on cooperation and friendship between
    Moldova and Transnistria Moldavian Republic during the meeting in
    Bendery. The agreement covers equal status of the two sides, their
    bilateral sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in
    domestic affairs. The conflict can be solved within the framework of
    international legal norms and political-economical realities. Moldova
    should refuse inheritance over Transnistria. Moldova and Transnistria
    can become federative state basing on horizontal relations. Separatist
    leaders should take important posts in central authorities, Moldova
    should declare its neutralism, pay $1.5 billion-debt of Transdniestr to
    Gazprom and parties and people of separatist region should participate
    in parliamentarian elections in 2009.

    Current developments have reached to decisive stage: establishment
    of new Transnistria precedent or repetition of old Kozak experience
    will depend on directions of developments.
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