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POST-WAR THEATER OF OPERATIONS
Professor Aleksei Malashenko (Supreme School of Economics)
WPS Agency
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
September 8, 2008 Monday
Russia
THE FUTURE OF THE FORMERLY NON-RECOGNIZED REPUBLICS: OPTIONS; The
Kremlin should start thinking about to do with South Ossetia and
Abkhazia now.
Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia inevitably raises
the following question: what next? What is to be done about or with
the formerly non-recognized republics now?
Our congratulations to South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the long-awaited
recognition. While they are celebrating, however, Moscow should
already start thinking about the future. Shall the Kremlin leave them
eternally independent and recognized by Russia, HAMAS, perhaps Belarus,
and a couple of other analogous regimes or accept them in the Russian
Federation at some later date?
Variant A: Independence
Independence for South Ossetia is made impossible by its size (much
smaller than the Moscow region, it has only between 70,000 and 100,000
in terms of population), irreducible economic inadequacy, and, finally,
by the inevitable pull of North Ossetia.
For Abkhazia on the other hand, official independence may evolve
into something wholly different - at least in theory. Some idealists
in it even now believe that bona fide independence may bring bona
fide dividends one fine day - something like a free economic zone,
tourists and capitals from abroad, and so on.
As for the Caucasus in general, it cannot expect anything good to stem
from sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This sovereignty sets a
precedent. There is Chechnya nearby. The chain of questions to be asked
is quite predictable: all right for Kosovo but not for Abkhazia? All
right for Abkhazia but not for Chechnya? This mentality is too deeply
rooted in some politicians in the Caucasus, even though they themselves
never miss a chance to reassure Moscow of their loyalty.
Borders were violated. Georgian borders, this time. There is, however,
a similar chain of questions that may be applied. If the Georgian
borders were revised, why not revise some others as well? Say, the
borders between Chechnya and Ingushetia (the Malgobek district),
Ossetia and Ingushetia (Prigorodny), borders between Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia... They are internal borders,
but regional mentality makes these moot issues a permanent source
of conflicts.
Variant B: Membership in the Russian Federation
Certain problems are encountered with it. De facto, the self-proclaimed
republics are already in Russia. South Ossetia is being restored with
Russian tax-payers' money. Russian businesses run whatever there is
to be run in Abkhazia - land itself, resorts, spas, beaches... In a
word, both territories are part of Russia economically and from the
standpoint of citizenship. What if their membership is formalized,
though?
Appearance of the two new subjects will alter the situation in the
Caucasus. Moreover, these changes are impossible to predict - and
therefore to draw contingency plans for.
For example, it will change the "format" of the dispute between
the Ingushetians and Ossetians over the Prigorodny district. It
will be no longer North Ossetia as one of the concerned parties,
it will be larger Ossetia. South Ossetians' short tempers meanwhile
are recognized everywhere, even in North Ossetia itself. Ingushetia
is unlikely to be overly happy.
Deterioration of the Ossetian-Ingushetian discord may result in a
situation where the Ingushetians facing Christian Ossetians will
start getting help from nearby Moslem enclaves in the Russian
Federation. Moreover, this help will be both official and informal.
The new Federation subjects are not going to be prosperous at all (that
much is clear). It is their own internal problems that they will bring
to Russia and that means ethnic clashes and clannish discord. Small
as it is, Abkhazia is a cauldron of Abkhazian, Russian, and Armenian
ethnic groups. Fighting for sovereignty, they have been standing by
each other so far. Absence of a common enemy, however, will rekindle
the existing conflicts. The authorities will keep the problem under a
lid at first, but it cannot be contained there for long. The Southern
Federal Region in the meantime has problems even without anything new
added to its plate. It won't take Abkhazia long to learn the difference
between the title of "freedom fighters" and Federation subjects.
There are the Olympic Games in Sochi to be considered as well. Should
the International Olympic Committee decide to deprive Russia of the
right to host the Winter Olympics in 2014, it will become a bona fide
tragedy for all of the Southern Federal Region.
Can Russia expect any benefits from absorption of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia? What South Ossetia is needed for is clear. Russia needs it
as a site for a fully-fledged military base against NATO approaching
its southern borders. As for Abkhazia, it will probably regain its
status of the Russian spa region (unless clannish wars and strife
make the Black Sea coast in Abkhazia too "hot" a spot even for
Russian tourists).
There is of course a roundabout way - South Ossetia and Abkhazia may
join the Russian-Belarussian union... but that is too fantastic an
option to ponder. The Kremlin will never be able to up gas prices for
Belarus in this case. On the other hand, it will deprive the Western
community of the chance to accuse Russia of annexation.
Variant C: Back into Georgia
That's a sheer impossibility. But what about conquest of the wayward
territories by sheer strength of arms? Say, with help from NATO? Even
that is unlikely.
Everyone in the region appears to be mesmerized by Russia's military
feat. By its unprecedented resolve and determination to take its
chances. Had the Kremlin failed to move in, all of the Caucasus would
have branded it as a weakling never to be taken seriously again. And
yet, battles are over. Time to go back to life in peace... but how can
it be accomplished if this "time of peace" never ends in Ingushetia,
Chechnya, or Dagestan?
Professor Aleksei Malashenko (Supreme School of Economics)
WPS Agency
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
September 8, 2008 Monday
Russia
THE FUTURE OF THE FORMERLY NON-RECOGNIZED REPUBLICS: OPTIONS; The
Kremlin should start thinking about to do with South Ossetia and
Abkhazia now.
Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia inevitably raises
the following question: what next? What is to be done about or with
the formerly non-recognized republics now?
Our congratulations to South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the long-awaited
recognition. While they are celebrating, however, Moscow should
already start thinking about the future. Shall the Kremlin leave them
eternally independent and recognized by Russia, HAMAS, perhaps Belarus,
and a couple of other analogous regimes or accept them in the Russian
Federation at some later date?
Variant A: Independence
Independence for South Ossetia is made impossible by its size (much
smaller than the Moscow region, it has only between 70,000 and 100,000
in terms of population), irreducible economic inadequacy, and, finally,
by the inevitable pull of North Ossetia.
For Abkhazia on the other hand, official independence may evolve
into something wholly different - at least in theory. Some idealists
in it even now believe that bona fide independence may bring bona
fide dividends one fine day - something like a free economic zone,
tourists and capitals from abroad, and so on.
As for the Caucasus in general, it cannot expect anything good to stem
from sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This sovereignty sets a
precedent. There is Chechnya nearby. The chain of questions to be asked
is quite predictable: all right for Kosovo but not for Abkhazia? All
right for Abkhazia but not for Chechnya? This mentality is too deeply
rooted in some politicians in the Caucasus, even though they themselves
never miss a chance to reassure Moscow of their loyalty.
Borders were violated. Georgian borders, this time. There is, however,
a similar chain of questions that may be applied. If the Georgian
borders were revised, why not revise some others as well? Say, the
borders between Chechnya and Ingushetia (the Malgobek district),
Ossetia and Ingushetia (Prigorodny), borders between Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia... They are internal borders,
but regional mentality makes these moot issues a permanent source
of conflicts.
Variant B: Membership in the Russian Federation
Certain problems are encountered with it. De facto, the self-proclaimed
republics are already in Russia. South Ossetia is being restored with
Russian tax-payers' money. Russian businesses run whatever there is
to be run in Abkhazia - land itself, resorts, spas, beaches... In a
word, both territories are part of Russia economically and from the
standpoint of citizenship. What if their membership is formalized,
though?
Appearance of the two new subjects will alter the situation in the
Caucasus. Moreover, these changes are impossible to predict - and
therefore to draw contingency plans for.
For example, it will change the "format" of the dispute between
the Ingushetians and Ossetians over the Prigorodny district. It
will be no longer North Ossetia as one of the concerned parties,
it will be larger Ossetia. South Ossetians' short tempers meanwhile
are recognized everywhere, even in North Ossetia itself. Ingushetia
is unlikely to be overly happy.
Deterioration of the Ossetian-Ingushetian discord may result in a
situation where the Ingushetians facing Christian Ossetians will
start getting help from nearby Moslem enclaves in the Russian
Federation. Moreover, this help will be both official and informal.
The new Federation subjects are not going to be prosperous at all (that
much is clear). It is their own internal problems that they will bring
to Russia and that means ethnic clashes and clannish discord. Small
as it is, Abkhazia is a cauldron of Abkhazian, Russian, and Armenian
ethnic groups. Fighting for sovereignty, they have been standing by
each other so far. Absence of a common enemy, however, will rekindle
the existing conflicts. The authorities will keep the problem under a
lid at first, but it cannot be contained there for long. The Southern
Federal Region in the meantime has problems even without anything new
added to its plate. It won't take Abkhazia long to learn the difference
between the title of "freedom fighters" and Federation subjects.
There are the Olympic Games in Sochi to be considered as well. Should
the International Olympic Committee decide to deprive Russia of the
right to host the Winter Olympics in 2014, it will become a bona fide
tragedy for all of the Southern Federal Region.
Can Russia expect any benefits from absorption of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia? What South Ossetia is needed for is clear. Russia needs it
as a site for a fully-fledged military base against NATO approaching
its southern borders. As for Abkhazia, it will probably regain its
status of the Russian spa region (unless clannish wars and strife
make the Black Sea coast in Abkhazia too "hot" a spot even for
Russian tourists).
There is of course a roundabout way - South Ossetia and Abkhazia may
join the Russian-Belarussian union... but that is too fantastic an
option to ponder. The Kremlin will never be able to up gas prices for
Belarus in this case. On the other hand, it will deprive the Western
community of the chance to accuse Russia of annexation.
Variant C: Back into Georgia
That's a sheer impossibility. But what about conquest of the wayward
territories by sheer strength of arms? Say, with help from NATO? Even
that is unlikely.
Everyone in the region appears to be mesmerized by Russia's military
feat. By its unprecedented resolve and determination to take its
chances. Had the Kremlin failed to move in, all of the Caucasus would
have branded it as a weakling never to be taken seriously again. And
yet, battles are over. Time to go back to life in peace... but how can
it be accomplished if this "time of peace" never ends in Ingushetia,
Chechnya, or Dagestan?