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  • Rice faces a key test in visit to Turkey

    Rice faces a key test in visit to Turkey
    By Brian Knowlton

    International Herald Tribune
    Wednesday, February 2, 2005


    WASHINGTON Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Ankara this
    weekend for talks likely to test her fence-mending talents as much as
    will her stops in Paris and Berlin. The United States and Turkey are
    still trying to recover from an unusually bitter pre-Iraq war
    dispute. .

    After a new Muslim-dominated government blocked an urgent Pentagon
    request for access to Turkish territory that would have permitted a
    northern push into Iraq, some Turks called the U.S. negotiators
    arrogant and peremptory; the American side appeared taken aback by the
    new Muslim power centers in a long-secular country..

    The strains remain vivid, according to Turkish and American officials
    as well as analysts at a conference here of the American Turkish
    Council and the Atlantic Council..

    And as Turkey opens talks in October on European Union membership,
    U.S.-Turkish ties might face further strains..

    "Turkish-EU relations are at an all-time best," said Omer Taspinar,
    director of the Turkey Program at the Brookings Institute, "while
    trans-Atlantic relations are going through one of their worst
    patches." So even as the Bush administration cites Turkey as a model
    of the Western-oriented Muslim democracy that President George W. Bush
    wants for the region - he underscored this goal in his inaugural
    speech and may repeat it Wednesday in his State of the Union address -
    relations between the two countries remain raw..

    How bad is Turkish public opinion toward the United States?.

    A current best-selling thriller in Turkey is based on the premise that
    strains over Iraq escalate into a major U.S. war on Turkey, said Soli
    Ozel, a professor of international relations at Bilgi University in
    Istanbul. The scenario seems absurd. But a June 2003 survey by the Pew
    Research Center found that 71 percent of Turks worried that the United
    States was a potential military threat..

    The war changed opinion dramatically. The 2003 poll found that 83
    percent of Turks viewed the United States unfavorably, up from 55
    percent the previous year. And 82 percent of Turks expressed
    disappointment that Iraqi forces had not fought harder against the
    U.S. coalition..

    "Turkey is on the receiving end of America's grand designs in the
    Middle East," said Ozel, and as a neighbor of Iran, Iraq and Syria,
    the Turks would like a voice on how those designs are carried out. .

    The invasion of Iraq "simply has broken the back of U.S.-Turkish
    relations," Taspinar said. .

    The containment of Iraq had been a cornerstone of America's ties to
    Turkey, a NATO partner, said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington
    Institute. "It has been damaged." A major unknown is how the situation
    in Iraq, particularly northern Iraq, will evolve..

    The administration hopes the unexpected success of the Iraqi elections
    will give it a boost as Rice begins her trip Thursday. The elections
    underscored "how important it is for all of us to encourage and
    support those steps," the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher,
    said Monday..

    But Turks have a series of worries..

    Turkey is deeply concerned that the Kurds of northern Iraq,
    strengthened by election results and with a decade's experience of
    near-autonomy, will declare independence, emboldening
    separatist-minded Kurds in Turkey..

    Turks believe that some in the Bush administration - including Deputy
    Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who led the failed access
    negotiations - would not try to block an independent Kurdistan..

    Many Turks say the U.S. failure to apprehend and turn over Iraq-based
    Kurdish extremists of the PKK group reflects a double standard by an
    administration that calls the war on terrorism a top priority. "The
    PKK is the thorn in Turkey's foot, and it needs to be taken out,"
    Cagaptay said. "There's no other way to move forward on U.S.-Turkish
    relations." .

    Preston Hughes, a retired U.S. Army colonel and Turkey expert, said
    that the U.S. approach on the PKK "has caused bitter frustration and
    even anger at the highest levels" in Turkey..

    Turks also worry about a Kurdish takeover of the northern Iraqi city
    of Kirkuk, which controls great oil wealth. Taspinar went so far as to
    suggest that Turkey might "go it alone in northern Iraq" if "there is
    a civil war centered around Kirkuk between the Kurds, the Arabs and
    the Turkmens." Turks would also like reassurances about neighboring
    Iran. "We are really waiting, biting our nails," over the possibility
    of a U.S. attack on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, Ozel said..

    What else would Turks like to hear from Rice? Clearly, analyst said,
    an unequivocal assertion that the United States opposes an independent
    Kurdistan and, above all, a concerted push for Israeli-Palestinian
    peace. .

    Taspinar's advice: "Public diplomacy should not be seen as an
    alternative to changes in policy." .


    Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said that as EU
    accession talks progress, a shift away from the United States might
    widen. "Turkey's imagination, its talent, is inevitably going to be
    drawn toward Europe," Parris said. .


    While the United States and Europe may be vying for Turkish attention
    and business, their hopes for Turkey largely coincide: Both want to
    see it ensure the rights of ethnic Armenians and Kurds, of women and
    of trade unions. And both want a resolution of the decades-old
    controversy over divided Cyprus. .


    As fence-mending proceeds, many Turks acknowledge that they, too, have
    work to do. Cagaptay suggested that the government and elite needed to
    work "to filter out the vast amount of anti-American talk" and to
    counter widespread anti-American conspiracy theories..


    See more of the world that matters - click here for home delivery of
    the International Herald Tribune. .

    < < Back to Start of Article

    WASHINGTON Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Ankara this
    weekend for talks likely to test her fence-mending talents as much as
    will her stops in Paris and Berlin. The United States and Turkey are
    still trying to recover from an unusually bitter pre-Iraq war
    dispute. .

    After a new Muslim-dominated government blocked an urgent Pentagon
    request for access to Turkish territory that would have permitted a
    northern push into Iraq, some Turks called the U.S. negotiators
    arrogant and peremptory; the American side appeared taken aback by the
    new Muslim power centers in a long-secular country..

    The strains remain vivid, according to Turkish and American officials
    as well as analysts at a conference here of the American Turkish
    Council and the Atlantic Council..

    And as Turkey opens talks in October on European Union membership,
    U.S.-Turkish ties might face further strains..

    "Turkish-EU relations are at an all-time best," said Omer Taspinar,
    director of the Turkey Program at the Brookings Institute, "while
    trans-Atlantic relations are going through one of their worst
    patches." So even as the Bush administration cites Turkey as a model
    of the Western-oriented Muslim democracy that President George W. Bush
    wants for the region - he underscored this goal in his inaugural
    speech and may repeat it Wednesday in his State of the Union address -
    relations between the two countries remain raw..

    How bad is Turkish public opinion toward the United States?.

    A current best-selling thriller in Turkey is based on the premise that
    strains over Iraq escalate into a major U.S. war on Turkey, said Soli
    Ozel, a professor of international relations at Bilgi University in
    Istanbul. The scenario seems absurd. But a June 2003 survey by the Pew
    Research Center found that 71 percent of Turks worried that the United
    States was a potential military threat..

    The war changed opinion dramatically. The 2003 poll found that 83
    percent of Turks viewed the United States unfavorably, up from 55
    percent the previous year. And 82 percent of Turks expressed
    disappointment that Iraqi forces had not fought harder against the
    U.S. coalition..

    "Turkey is on the receiving end of America's grand designs in the
    Middle East," said Ozel, and as a neighbor of Iran, Iraq and Syria,
    the Turks would like a voice on how those designs are carried out. .

    The invasion of Iraq "simply has broken the back of U.S.-Turkish
    relations," Taspinar said. .

    The containment of Iraq had been a cornerstone of America's ties to
    Turkey, a NATO partner, said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington
    Institute. "It has been damaged." A major unknown is how the situation
    in Iraq, particularly northern Iraq, will evolve..

    The administration hopes the unexpected success of the Iraqi elections
    will give it a boost as Rice begins her trip Thursday. The elections
    underscored "how important it is for all of us to encourage and
    support those steps," the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher,
    said Monday..

    But Turks have a series of worries..

    Turkey is deeply concerned that the Kurds of northern Iraq,
    strengthened by election results and with a decade's experience of
    near-autonomy, will declare independence, emboldening
    separatist-minded Kurds in Turkey..

    Turks believe that some in the Bush administration - including Deputy
    Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who led the failed access
    negotiations - would not try to block an independent Kurdistan..

    Many Turks say the U.S. failure to apprehend and turn over Iraq-based
    Kurdish extremists of the PKK group reflects a double standard by an
    administration that calls the war on terrorism a top priority. "The
    PKK is the thorn in Turkey's foot, and it needs to be taken out,"
    Cagaptay said. "There's no other way to move forward on U.S.-Turkish
    relations." .

    Preston Hughes, a retired U.S. Army colonel and Turkey expert, said
    that the U.S. approach on the PKK "has caused bitter frustration and
    even anger at the highest levels" in Turkey..

    Turks also worry about a Kurdish takeover of the northern Iraqi city
    of Kirkuk, which controls great oil wealth. Taspinar went so far as to
    suggest that Turkey might "go it alone in northern Iraq" if "there is
    a civil war centered around Kirkuk between the Kurds, the Arabs and
    the Turkmens." Turks would also like reassurances about neighboring
    Iran. "We are really waiting, biting our nails," over the possibility
    of a U.S. attack on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, Ozel said..

    What else would Turks like to hear from Rice? Clearly, analyst said,
    an unequivocal assertion that the United States opposes an independent
    Kurdistan and, above all, a concerted push for Israeli-Palestinian
    peace. .

    Taspinar's advice: "Public diplomacy should not be seen as an
    alternative to changes in policy." .


    Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said that as EU
    accession talks progress, a shift away from the United States might
    widen. "Turkey's imagination, its talent, is inevitably going to be
    drawn toward Europe," Parris said. .


    While the United States and Europe may be vying for Turkish attention
    and business, their hopes for Turkey largely coincide: Both want to
    see it ensure the rights of ethnic Armenians and Kurds, of women and
    of trade unions. And both want a resolution of the decades-old
    controversy over divided Cyprus. .


    As fence-mending proceeds, many Turks acknowledge that they, too, have
    work to do. Cagaptay suggested that the government and elite needed to
    work "to filter out the vast amount of anti-American talk" and to
    counter widespread anti-American conspiracy theories..
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