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ISTANBUL: Prof: Cyprus conflict could interrupt Turkey EU accession

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  • ISTANBUL: Prof: Cyprus conflict could interrupt Turkey EU accession

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Jan 4 2010

    Professor Akgün: Cyprus conflict could interrupt Turkey's EU accession


    Foreign policy expert Mensur Akgün has said that Turkey's accession to
    the European Union might come to a halt if the Cyprus conflict remains
    unresolved.

    `[Greek Cypriots] believe that Turkey will give in at the end when it
    becomes a member of the EU. But this is not a realistic option for the
    Greek Cypriots. They should realize that they lost leverage in the EU
    because many chapters are being blocked by them and France,' he told
    Today's Zaman for Monday Talk.

    Akgün added that Turkey has lost its desire to become a member of the
    EU and is not ready to make any sacrifice.

    `Even in the reform process, EU membership is a non-issue. Look at the
    debate on and around the Kurdish problem -- you won't see any
    reference to the Copenhagen political criteria,' he said.

    There is still hope because of the frequent talks scheduled between
    the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders in the coming weeks. Since
    September 2008, Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias and Turkish
    Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat have met more than 50 times under UN
    auspices to discuss a deal to reunify the island. The previous round
    of talks ended when Greek Cypriots rejected a UN settlement plan in a
    2004 referendum.

    Another foreign policy issue that will shake up the first few months
    of 2010 is Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Akgün, who recently
    returned from a working visit to Armenia, also answered our questions
    on that topic.

    The Armenian parliament is to decide on Jan. 12 whether or not the
    protocols signed with Turkey are constitutional. What do you think the
    outcome will be?

    The chief advisor to the Armenian president and the foreign minister
    say that the Constitutional Court in Armenia will approve the
    protocols. All civil society leaders also support the view that the
    approval process is a procedural matter. They also say that Turkey
    needs to move in that direction by the end of March at the latest in
    order to alleviate the Armenian opposition's reaction to the approval
    of the protocols.

    Do you think Turkey will be able to move swiftly in that regard?

    Turkey is in a difficult position because of the internal opposition
    and the reactions from Azerbaijan. It is difficult for Turkey to move
    forward without any tangible progress in the talks between Armenia and
    Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and the surrounding
    regions. But there is not much time, as April is the month when the
    issue of genocide becomes prominent and tensions rise. Both sides will
    face fiercer opposition domestically and internationally. So as agreed
    in the protocols, the Armenian side expects Turkey to take steps
    without linking its normalization of relations with Armenia to the
    conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian side
    believes that Turkey's conditions discourage the parties within the
    Minsk process. When asked for a gesture or a partial withdrawal, they
    usually refer to the Cyprus problem in which the withdrawal of
    military forces is linked to the overall settlement.

    So the Armenian side argues that Turkey's conditions help neither the
    rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia nor the rapprochement between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Yes, rightly or wrongly this is something Turkey should take into
    consideration. They have a point that the processes are parallel, but
    if one of the tracks becomes a precondition for [progress on] the
    other, then the cycle of conflict can never be broken. Moreover,
    Turkey is struggling with a spate of serious domestic problems such as
    the Kurdish problem, trying to settle the score with its unpleasant
    past. I don't think the government can shoulder yet another political
    burden and deal with the Armenian issue considering the opposition in
    Parliament and dissent in the streets. Needless to say, they don't
    want to jeopardize relations with Azerbaijan. All in all, it is not
    easy for Turkey to move forward unless there is some progress in the
    talks between the parties.

    More specifically, like what?

    Like progress in the Minsk process. But it is also possible that third
    parties trying to contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
    problem can put pressure on Azerbaijan or at least convince the
    Azerbaijani leadership of the virtues of rapprochement between Turkey
    and Armenia. I suspect that if left to its own pace and fate, the
    relations between Armenia and Turkey may stumble again. The best
    option for all of us would of course be progress in the Minsk process.

    `Turkey's EU accession might come to a halt'
    Turkish Cypriot President Talat said there is not much progress toward
    a peaceful settlement in Cyprus. Where is that process going?

    There is a ray of hope because of condensed talks between the Turkish
    and Greek Cypriot leaders in the coming weeks. But it is hard to
    expect concrete results from these talks.

    Why is that?

    Because the Greek Cypriots are not yet there and do not seem to be
    ready to accept a fair settlement similar to the Annan Plan. They also
    have some preconditions such as the withdrawal of Turkish troops from
    the island. Meanwhile, we have a very complex property problem ahead
    of us. The principle of bizonality conflicts with individual property
    rights. The Greek side believes that they have the upper hand due to
    Turkey's desire to become a member of the EU. They file cases against
    Turkey in the European Court of Human Rights and thus threaten to
    undermine Talat's capacity to negotiate.

    What would motivate the Greek Cypriots to have a positive approach in
    reconciliation?

    They could be motivated if they are convinced that Turkey's accession
    to the European Union might come to a halt if the Cyprus conflict
    remains unresolved. Otherwise, they believe that Turkey will give in
    at the end when it becomes a member of the EU. But this is not a
    realistic option for the Greek Cypriots. They should realize that they
    lost leverage in the EU because many chapters are being blocked by
    them and France. Turkey lost its appetite to become a member and is
    not ready for any sacrifice. Even in the reform process, EU membership
    is a non-issue. Look at the debate on and around the Kurdish problem,
    you won't see any reference to the Copenhagen political criteria.

    Is it possible that Turkey's accession negotiations might stop in 2010?

    It is possible, although no one wants that. Not the Greeks, not the
    Turks, not the French -- no one desires that. But when we look at
    practical developments, we move toward that direction. We may not have
    any chapters to negotiate. As you know, eight chapters have been
    suspended due to Turkey's non-compliance with its customs union
    responsibilities, that is to say, for not opening its air and sea
    ports to Greek Cypriot flagged vessels. Five of the chapters are de
    facto blocked by France to discourage Turkey from full membership. The
    Greek Cypriots announced recently that they will block six more
    chapters. There are other obstacles and conditions for progress in
    Turkey's accession, not to mentions the ones blocked by Turkey due to
    benchmarks.

    Do you see other obstacles in front of Turkey's EU accession process?

    There are no other issues blocking Turkey's EU accession process. In
    the field of foreign policy, Turkey and the EU complement each other.
    They are on parallel tracks, be it in the Caucasus or in other places.
    The only question mark may emerge with regard to Iran. But as a member
    of the UN Security Council, Turkey will act in conformity with its
    decisions. Unilateral actions or sanctions will not be appreciated by
    Turkey, but it is highly unlikely for such actions or sanctions to
    come from the EU.

    `Turkey part of solutions, not problems'
    You don't seem to support the idea of an `axis shift' in Turkey's
    foreign policy.

    This is not a realistic debate. There is no shift in Turkey's foreign
    policy orientation. Obviously some countries and even some analysts
    didn't like to see Turkey involved with the problems in surrounding
    regions and claimed that Turkey was distancing itself from its Western
    allies. It is true that Turkey deals with problems and is sometimes
    outspoken about them, but this does not mean that Turkey is
    exclusively focusing on the Middle East and calibrating its foreign
    policy on the basis of what they see there. When it comes to its
    neighborhood, Turkey does not have to be successful in all of its
    attempts to solve problems either. The process sometimes is as
    important as the result. You can't achieve everything you desire all
    the time.

    Are you talking about Turkey's role in talks between Israel and Syria?

    Yes, last time Turkey failed, but it was not because of what Turkey
    did. It was because of Israel's intervention in Gaza and its results,
    the human tragedy. Moreover, don't expect miracles from Ankara. Turkey
    may also fail to bring peace to the region just like the US, the EU,
    Russia and even China do. But failures should not deter us from
    mediation, arbitration or facilitation. In terms of determination,
    there is an -- if you wish to call it that -- axis shift in Turkey's
    foreign policy. It is more conciliatory and more oriented toward
    problem-solving. Turkey no longer wants to be associated with problems
    but with solutions.

    What would you say about some of Turkey's other initiatives in the
    neighborhood? Do you see any success stories?

    We see some tangible results from this reconciliatory mindset. For
    instance, there is a huge shift in the perception of northern Iraqi
    Kurds. They are no longer seen as archenemies of Turkey. Ankara is
    collaborating with them on several fronts. We are likely to reap the
    benefits in the fight against terrorism and in settling our own
    Kurdish problem. On the Armenian front, despite obstacles, we also see
    progress. These two protocols have at least been signed.

    Turkey recently tabled a new offer for the solution of the Cyprus
    conflict and asked the EU to keep only one of its promises made to the
    Turkish Cypriots in return for opening ports and airports to the Greek
    Cypriots. Needless to say, Turkey can solve neither its own problems
    nor problems faced by others alone. No one can. But it can facilitate
    their solution. I believe such a Turkey is much better for all of us
    than a Turkey resisting any kind of solution, aggressive, revisionist
    and basing its policies on ethnic and religious brotherhood.

    04 January 2010, Monday
    YONCA POYRAZ DOÄ?AN Ä°STANBUL
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