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BAKU: Ukrainian Analyst: New Declaration On Nagorno-Karabakh May Be

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  • BAKU: Ukrainian Analyst: New Declaration On Nagorno-Karabakh May Be

    UKRAINIAN ANALYST: NEW DECLARATION ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH MAY BE ADOPTED
    T. Teymur

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics/62 918.html
    March 2 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Day.Az interview with senior consultant at Ukraine's National Institute
    of International Security Problems Elena Kotelyanets.

    In your opinion, how will the Azerbaijan-Ukraine ties develop further
    under the new President Viktor Yanukovych?

    Azerbaijan is a key post-Soviet country the relations with which are
    especially important for Ukraine. Possible diversification of energy
    supply to our country depends on proper model of this relationship.

    Maintaining friendly and mutually beneficial Ukrainian-Azerbaijani
    relations meets national interest of both countries.

    Worthy of note is that the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani relations were
    established in mid-1990s and have not been corrected since then. In
    our opinion, their current model is a chronic and unbalanced because
    of the lack of comprehensive analysis and feasibility study into
    foreign policy strategy.

    Given Yanukovych's campaign rhetoric that deepening cooperation
    between the CIS countries is priority, one should expect pragmatism in
    relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan: transition from declarative
    mood and emotion to economic feasibility and mutual benefit.

    And how do you see the future of GUAM? Will the new Ukrainian President
    change country's foreing policy towards this organization?

    Lack of last year's summit of the GUAM member states, which failed to
    compensate for the meeting of the Parliamentary Assembly and activities
    at the Foreign Ministry level, confirmed limited resource base of the
    organization and low interest in its further development both by the
    participants themselves and external donors. We can assume that without
    reforms, GUAM's official status will continue to decline and as a
    result the regional organization for economy and security may turn into
    only a political and consultative forum for participating countries.

    It is likely that under a new president, Ukraine (together with
    Georgia) will cease to be a locomotive for the development of the
    organization and main initiator of reforms. Because Yanukovych is
    more interested in regional initiatives aimed at development of
    free economic zones, rather than deeper cooperation within such
    organizations as GUAM. The Ukrainian side is likely to agree with
    the new informal status of the organization as a kind of platform
    for discussion and consultation.

    What are Ukraine's chances for further integration with the European
    Union and NATO?

    Key task of national foreign policy is to preserve Ukraine's
    non-aligned status. This is the main thesis of Viktor Yanukovych's
    election campaign which he will realize as a president of the country.

    Nevertheless, under the new leadership Ukraine's will not radically
    refect to integrate with the NATO because the current Ukrainian
    legislation regulates the Ukraine's integration with Euro-Atlantic
    structures.

    Any change in country's foreign policy requires corrections to the
    national security strategy which the current leadership can not
    afford due to absence of parliamentary majority. However, Ukraine
    may review its Euro-Atlantic policy gradually. Thus, it is possible
    that we abandon the rhetoric of integration with NATO and informally
    replace it with close cooperation with the Euro-Atlantic structures
    under the Individual Partnership Plan.

    Under new political situation inside the country, Ukraine will
    unlikely give up Euro-Atlantic aspirations and will continue to
    cooperate with the EU in the region through "Eastern Partnership"
    policy and "Black Sea Synergy" which, in turn, will bring us closer
    to obtaining associate membership.

    What, in your opinion, we should expect from the Nagorno-Karabakh
    negotiations for next few months?

    Recently intensified Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations may be indicative
    of a certain progress in finding solutions to the conflict as well as
    preparation of a framework agreement on the matter. A new declaration
    like the Mein Dorf Declaration may be adopted as well. As a key
    mediator in settlement of the Karabakh conflict, Russia is trying
    to revive this agreement and give it a new meaning. This scheme,
    which failed in late 2008, may become realistic under new conditions
    after the U.S. stimulates the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian
    relations.

    However, whatever outcome of subsequent meetings between the presidents
    of the conflicting parties is, it is necessary to understand that
    warming Russian-Turkish, Armenian-Turkish and Russian-Azerbaijani
    relations will impact the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. The
    result will also depend on political will and the level of compromise
    of the conflicting parties, as well as consensus among the major
    global players on the various components of the settlement of the
    Karabakh conflict.
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