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  • Cameron Talks Turkey, But EU Membership Remains Elusive For Ankara

    CAMERON TALKS TURKEY, BUT EU MEMBERSHIP REMAINS ELUSIVE FOR ANKARA

    International Business Times
    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/39175/20100728/turkey-eu.htm
    July 28 2010

    On his recent trip to Turkey, the British Prime Minister David
    Cameron has aggressively campaigned for the country's membership
    into the European Union (EU), attacking the opposition as misguided
    and/or prejudicial.

    Cameron has vowed he would "fight" for Turkey's membership and that
    he is "angry" at the stalled progress. The British head of state
    declared that with its unique geographical and cultural position,
    Turkey could become an invaluable link between Europe and the Middle
    East, including Iran.

    In a speech before the Turkish Parliament in Ankara, Cameron praised
    Turkey as "vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital
    for our diplomacy."

    As Cameron has also alluded to, Turkey has the second largest army
    in NATO, and has served as an important ally in the war in Afghanistan.

    Turkey is also a crucial conduit for oil and gas pipelines heading
    towards Europe.

    Cameron is also seeking to establish better trade links between
    Britain and Turkey, with the strategy of doubling their value over
    the next five years.

    While Mr. Cameron may indeed genuinely want Turkey in the EU club -
    Britain, after all, has long advocated for its inclusion - his words
    may mean little to the 27-member bloc, many of whom, particularly
    France and Germany, actively oppose Turkey's entry.

    Both Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the
    French president, have espoused that Turkey be given a "privileged
    partnership" with the EU, but nothing more.

    Turkey has officially been a candidate for EU membership since December
    1999 and accession negotiations commenced in October 2005.

    But, like a jilted bride, Turkey remains on the outside looking in -
    and for a whole host of reasons.

    "There are still considerable obstacles to Turkey's accession," said
    Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics
    Ltd. in London. "While Mr. Cameron's intervention will obviously be
    welcomed by Ankara, entry remains years, more likely decades, away."

    For one thing, Turkey is a historic enemy of EU member Greece and has
    refused to fully recognize the government of another EU member, Cyprus.

    Turkey also has a long and poor record on human rights - its treatment
    of women, of political prisoners, and of the restive Kurdish minority
    in the Southeastern part of the country, the state's prosecution of
    certain human rights defenders, writers and journalists, among other
    things, all violate EU values.

    While Turkey has indeed instituted some reforms - for example,
    abolishing the death penalty, imprisoning senior military and police
    officers for committing acts of torture, and the allowance of Kurdish
    language in radio and television broadcasts - changes have been too
    few and too slow for most EU observers.

    Another particularly contentious point that seems to have no hope
    of resolution lies with Turkey's activities during World War I when
    up to two million Armenians are believed to have been murdered in
    a state-sponsored mass extermination program. Turkish governments
    ever since has refused to even acknowledge the killings, much less
    apologize for them.

    Robert C. Holderith, president & chief executive officer of Emerging
    Global Shares, said another important reason for blocking Turkey is
    because they have refused to support the EU's sanctions against their
    neighbor and trading partner, Iran.

    "It really has more to do with politics than economics," Holderith
    said. "Bulgaria and Romania are both EU members, but they are emerging
    markets and they are, by many measures, poorer than Turkey."

    Holderith believes that while Cameron may indeed want to expand the
    U.K.'s trading relationship with Turkey, the British leader might
    actually be acting on behalf of the United States, which wants to stay
    out of this affair, but clearly wants Turkey to remain a strategic
    military partner in NATO in Iran's backyard.

    Perhaps the least-openly discussed grievance against Turkey is that
    it is a large and overwhelmingly Muslim nation.

    Turkey is a nation of more than 72-million, with two-thirds of the
    population under 35. As such, some European critics fear that Turkey's
    entry into the EU might prompt an influx of more immigrants into
    European nations which are already struggling with high unemployment
    and budget crises.

    To partially offset the fears of Britons and Europeans who oppose
    further immigration, Cameron suggested that the UK would impose
    provisional restrictions on the right of Turks to live and work in the
    UK after it joined the EU -- as Britain currently does with Bulgarians
    and Romanians.

    But with its high birth rate, Turkey is projected to overtake Germany's
    as the most populous state in Europe by 2020.

    Given their large population, a Turkish presence in the EU would
    vastly change the make-up of the European Parliament.

    "Turkey would automatically have great influence in the [European]
    Parliament, second only to Germany, by strength of numbers alone,"
    Holdedrith said. "That Parliament has the power to make trade laws and
    agreements. It's a big strategic problem for those who oppose Turkey."

    The Turkish economy - which would be the sixth largest in Europe if it
    were formally included - has actually performed quite well this year,

    Turkish GDP surged 11.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter
    of 2010 -- the best pace since the second quarter of 2004 -- after
    posting a 6 percent advance in the fourth quarter of 2009.

    Apparently, Turkey has so far been unhurt by growing economic woes
    in Western Europe, its biggest export market. (The Turkish economy,
    however, shrank 4.7 percent in 2009 - including a huge a 14-plus
    percent drop in the first quarter of that year - another victim of
    the global recession).

    Trade Minister Nihat Ergun has forecast that Turkey's economy could
    grow as much as 8 percent in 2010, according to Turkey's Ihlas News
    Agency. (The International Monetary Fund expects Turkey to expand by
    a more modest 6.3 percent in 2010.)

    Turkey boasts a tightly regulated banking system which has avoided the
    viral excesses of the global financial crisis. Unemployment is rather
    high, at 13.7 percent, but the Ankara government expects it to fall.

    Holderith also notes that the Turkish Lira currently trades at about
    half the value of the Euro.

    "If you want to buy a Mercedes Benz, it'll cost you twice as much,
    all things being equal, if you're in Turkey," he said.

    "The equalization of these two currencies - however, that would work
    -- could create an opportunity for the Germans, French and British
    to be able to sell to the Turks at a lesser price."

    Although this would benefit European manufacturers, Germany and France
    probably feel the trade-off is not worth the risk.

    While the Turkish economy is accelerating, Shearing cautions that
    Turkey remains a relatively poor county and, if it were allowed to
    join the EU, would likely need substantial EU structural funds -
    which would not be politically popular.

    To illustrate the status of the Turkish economy, Holderith explains
    that his company defines 'emerging market' as an economy with a GDP
    per capita of between $2,000 and $20,000. Turkey is currently at
    about $13,000. (By comparison, the U.S. is at $46,000, France and
    Germany are each in the low $40,000s, while China is at $8,000).

    However, Holderith believes Turkey will eventually join the EU -
    though it may take up to the years.

    "These Western European countries will eventually realize that they
    need to be closely tied with the faster-growing economies in their
    region," he said.




    From: A. Papazian
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