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"THE OSCE STRUCTURE AS A NEGOTIATION GROUND AND FORMAT NEEDS SERIOUS MODERNIZATION>>
Ruzan Ishkhanian
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=229:t he-osce-structure-as-a-negotiation-ground-and-format-needs-serious-modernizationr-&catid=1:all&Itemid=1
Tuesday, 31 May 2011 06:58
Senior Staff Scientist of the Political and Social Researches Institute
of the Black Sea-Caspian region, Scientific Associate of the RAS
Oriental Studies Institute Andrey Areshev also participated in the
international conference held in Stepanakert and called 'The legal,
political, and historical bases of the NKR establishment'. In his
interview to Azat Artsakh newspaper, he touched upon the peculiarities
of the current stage of the Karabakh conflict peaceful settlement and
considered them in the context of the geopolitical processes taking
place in the region.
- Mr. Areshev, as a political analyst, what are your forecasts on
the political processes taking place around the Karabakh conflict
and what do you think about the settlement process?
- The Karabakh conflict settlement is very complicated. In this regard,
there are quite different viewpoints and approaches, complicated with
many factors. First of all, the conflict started in the structure of a
common state. Some people consider that the conflict started in 1991,
but this approach is wrong. One should not ignore the nuances related
to the historical aspects of the conflict.
In particular, the AzerbaijaniRepublic, which was formed after the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, stated its refusal of the
succession to Soviet Azerbaijan, in the structure of which Nagorno
Karabakh had been. So, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan can be
noted only under a condition - Azerbaijan must return to the Soviet
Union. As of the current situation, the Karabakh conflict has left the
frames of the South Caucasus and has become a subject of attention
of different world states and forces. oomplicated correlation has
occurred in the negotiation process: negotiations are held within
the OSCE and meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents are
held under the mediation of Russia. We realize that Russia plays an
important role in the negotiation process. On the other hand, it is
also clear that the situation in the South Caucasus is far from the
Soviet realities, in particular, from the situation of the 90s. Great
players, and first of all the USA, entered the region, though not
always publicly, however, considerably impacting the negotiation
process. Public impact on the developments has the Russian Federation.
The existing complicated situation is a direct consequence of the
lasting tension between the USA and RF.
- Considering the existing political realities, what solution to the
issue do you see within the OSCE?
- The prospect of the conflict settlement in this format seems
fantastic to me. Similar expectations existed before the conference
in Astana and we saw the results. The speeches of the Armenian
and Azerbaijani Presidents run counter to each other. The Russian
diplomatic sources have repeatedly stated (I also support this
viewpoint) that the OSCE structure as a negotiation ground and format
needs serious modernization. In the current conditions, it is quite
difficult to resolve the issue within the frames. The same concerns
the European Union, which positions itself as an active player in
the South Caucasus, but doesn't sufficiently take the realities into
account. For instance, when Abkhazia was an unrecognized state, foreign
missions ignored it. Currently, when Abkhazia has become a subject
of international law after its recognition by the RF and some other
states, increased interest towards it and aspiration for establishing
official contacts with it is displayed by the Western and European
diplomatic missions. It should be realized that, on the one hand,
the involvement in the world processes gives certain possibilities,
and on the other hand, it provides some restrictions.
Especially if a country establishes relations with de jure
international and de facto Western donor organizations, it must assume
certain political commitments. In the prospect, it can even restrict
the possibilities for a political maneuver.
- Cooperation of European structures with unrecognized states,
including the NKR, is an obvious fact today. Do you think that Europe
can play the role of mediator in the conflict settlement?
- As of Europe's activeness, I'd note the following: there is really
an institute legitimizing Karabakh's participation in European NGOs
and this is, surely, very good. However, it should be realized that
currently, even the EU, as an active player, deals more with its own
problems, which are more than enough. So, it should be taken into
account that the Karabakh conflict will be on the periphery of EU's
attention. Second, the interest towards Karabakh will be considered
within the interest towards Azerbaijan as a transit territory and
energy supplier, and these are projects, around which intensive
lobbying processes are launched in the European Union, First, it is
the project of NABUCCO. Much was spoken here about the prospects of
European integration. Meanwhile, a political solution supposing any
actions will be adopted by the EU, while watching the reaction of
the USA. The sample of Abkhazia testifies this. On the other hand,
the adopted solution will have a tendency equating the responsibility
of the Azerbaijani and Armenian parties. The proposals, which Armenia
and Karabakh will get from the EU and generally from the Western
organizations, will have some disagreeable shade.
- If no political solution is achieved on any level - neither within
the OSCE nor the EU, and Azerbaijan tries to resume the war, what,
do you think, will the superpowers' actions be? Resumption of war is
unfavorable either for the West or Russia you know.
- You are right. This isn't favorable for anybody. I should also
note that different forces have quite different impulses. But, what
I see allows me to state with some optimism that the probability of
wide-scale military activities is small. Unjustified expectations
are finally gone.
From: Baghdasarian
Ruzan Ishkhanian
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=229:t he-osce-structure-as-a-negotiation-ground-and-format-needs-serious-modernizationr-&catid=1:all&Itemid=1
Tuesday, 31 May 2011 06:58
Senior Staff Scientist of the Political and Social Researches Institute
of the Black Sea-Caspian region, Scientific Associate of the RAS
Oriental Studies Institute Andrey Areshev also participated in the
international conference held in Stepanakert and called 'The legal,
political, and historical bases of the NKR establishment'. In his
interview to Azat Artsakh newspaper, he touched upon the peculiarities
of the current stage of the Karabakh conflict peaceful settlement and
considered them in the context of the geopolitical processes taking
place in the region.
- Mr. Areshev, as a political analyst, what are your forecasts on
the political processes taking place around the Karabakh conflict
and what do you think about the settlement process?
- The Karabakh conflict settlement is very complicated. In this regard,
there are quite different viewpoints and approaches, complicated with
many factors. First of all, the conflict started in the structure of a
common state. Some people consider that the conflict started in 1991,
but this approach is wrong. One should not ignore the nuances related
to the historical aspects of the conflict.
In particular, the AzerbaijaniRepublic, which was formed after the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, stated its refusal of the
succession to Soviet Azerbaijan, in the structure of which Nagorno
Karabakh had been. So, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan can be
noted only under a condition - Azerbaijan must return to the Soviet
Union. As of the current situation, the Karabakh conflict has left the
frames of the South Caucasus and has become a subject of attention
of different world states and forces. oomplicated correlation has
occurred in the negotiation process: negotiations are held within
the OSCE and meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents are
held under the mediation of Russia. We realize that Russia plays an
important role in the negotiation process. On the other hand, it is
also clear that the situation in the South Caucasus is far from the
Soviet realities, in particular, from the situation of the 90s. Great
players, and first of all the USA, entered the region, though not
always publicly, however, considerably impacting the negotiation
process. Public impact on the developments has the Russian Federation.
The existing complicated situation is a direct consequence of the
lasting tension between the USA and RF.
- Considering the existing political realities, what solution to the
issue do you see within the OSCE?
- The prospect of the conflict settlement in this format seems
fantastic to me. Similar expectations existed before the conference
in Astana and we saw the results. The speeches of the Armenian
and Azerbaijani Presidents run counter to each other. The Russian
diplomatic sources have repeatedly stated (I also support this
viewpoint) that the OSCE structure as a negotiation ground and format
needs serious modernization. In the current conditions, it is quite
difficult to resolve the issue within the frames. The same concerns
the European Union, which positions itself as an active player in
the South Caucasus, but doesn't sufficiently take the realities into
account. For instance, when Abkhazia was an unrecognized state, foreign
missions ignored it. Currently, when Abkhazia has become a subject
of international law after its recognition by the RF and some other
states, increased interest towards it and aspiration for establishing
official contacts with it is displayed by the Western and European
diplomatic missions. It should be realized that, on the one hand,
the involvement in the world processes gives certain possibilities,
and on the other hand, it provides some restrictions.
Especially if a country establishes relations with de jure
international and de facto Western donor organizations, it must assume
certain political commitments. In the prospect, it can even restrict
the possibilities for a political maneuver.
- Cooperation of European structures with unrecognized states,
including the NKR, is an obvious fact today. Do you think that Europe
can play the role of mediator in the conflict settlement?
- As of Europe's activeness, I'd note the following: there is really
an institute legitimizing Karabakh's participation in European NGOs
and this is, surely, very good. However, it should be realized that
currently, even the EU, as an active player, deals more with its own
problems, which are more than enough. So, it should be taken into
account that the Karabakh conflict will be on the periphery of EU's
attention. Second, the interest towards Karabakh will be considered
within the interest towards Azerbaijan as a transit territory and
energy supplier, and these are projects, around which intensive
lobbying processes are launched in the European Union, First, it is
the project of NABUCCO. Much was spoken here about the prospects of
European integration. Meanwhile, a political solution supposing any
actions will be adopted by the EU, while watching the reaction of
the USA. The sample of Abkhazia testifies this. On the other hand,
the adopted solution will have a tendency equating the responsibility
of the Azerbaijani and Armenian parties. The proposals, which Armenia
and Karabakh will get from the EU and generally from the Western
organizations, will have some disagreeable shade.
- If no political solution is achieved on any level - neither within
the OSCE nor the EU, and Azerbaijan tries to resume the war, what,
do you think, will the superpowers' actions be? Resumption of war is
unfavorable either for the West or Russia you know.
- You are right. This isn't favorable for anybody. I should also
note that different forces have quite different impulses. But, what
I see allows me to state with some optimism that the probability of
wide-scale military activities is small. Unjustified expectations
are finally gone.
From: Baghdasarian