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ISTANBUL: The French Stress Test

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  • ISTANBUL: The French Stress Test

    THE FRENCH STRESS TEST

    Today's Zaman
    Jan 31 2012
    Turkey

    The news that France's new law punishing denial of the Armenian claims
    of genocide was put on hold on Tuesday after politicians opposed to
    the legislation demanded that its constitutionality be examined will
    have come as a big relief to Ankara.

    In the same way the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) unanimously
    ruled that the recognition of the Armenian genocide cannot be
    criminalized in Turkey, as it constitutes a violation of Article 10
    (freedom of expression) of the European Convention on Human Rights,
    the French move is also a violation of the exact same article. Indeed,
    if a candidate looking to join the EU adopted such a law, the EU
    would condemn it and make its removal a precondition for entry. It is
    shameful that a founding member of the EU can so effortlessly violate
    such an important European value, particularly when they continue
    to chastise other states for doing the exact same thing. And while
    Turkey needs to deal with its past, this is not the way to do it.

    Stress levels had hit the ceiling in recent days, with Turkish
    Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu claiming the French tried to "Nazify"
    Turkey and to push it out of Europe, while earlier this week Prime
    Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in an address to the nation, declared
    France a state leading the rise of a dark medieval mindset, using
    language of separatism and racism. No doubt Turkey's leadership
    feels emboldened following the support offered by US Secretary of
    State Hillary Clinton. Clinton stated her disapproval of the French
    bill, saying that the US would never follow a path that criminalizes
    freedom of expression, warning against using governmental force in
    order to resolve historical issues. On the other hand Turkey has been
    disappointed by the approach of the EU. Turkey expected Brussels to
    have a louder response to Paris. However, Davutoglu's suggestion that
    the EU place sanctions on France was just silly. Rather than following
    the example of the US, the EU has not spoken out strongly against
    France. Many in the EU may be far from happy with French President
    Nicolas Sarkozy, for after all what happens in France also risk
    damaging the reputation of the EU as a whole. EU member states have
    their plates full with the eurozone crisis. However, the EU will not
    want this quarrel to be a long and drawn-out affair, fearing it may
    undermine efforts to build a unified approach by the EU and Turkey
    on key Middle East issues such as Iran's nuclear ambitions and the
    unrest in Syria. While I doubt warm and friendly relations will be
    restored as long as Sarkozy is in office, I also believe that Turkey
    would not be so foolish as to base its approach towards EU-Turkish
    cooperation in the Middle East region through the prism of Paris. Turks
    (and others) have branded President Sarkozy racist. Looking back over
    Sarkozy's term in office, there have been several occasions when he
    has acted in a way that has characterized him as such. Sarkozy is no
    stranger to virulent and racist scaremongering. He has repeatedly used
    the idea of a feral and alien "racaille" (scum) to scare voters into
    backing him. While a number of these efforts have targeted France's
    Muslim community, including banning the burqa in 2010, other groups
    have also been affected, including the Roma. In 2010 Sarkozy adopted
    harsh measures against the Roma, expelling many from France, which
    was severally criticized, including by his EU colleagues.

    Since and prior to being elected, Sarkozy has pursued a policy aimed
    at increasing support from those that traditionally back the National
    Front of Marie Le Pen. Rather than dealing with France's socioeconomic
    problems head-on, he has preferred to blame them on certain immigrant
    communities. While Sarkozy hopes to scoop up far-right voters, his
    actions are more likely to strengthen and legitimize the National
    Front.

    I would also hope that France's half a million Armenians will
    take other factors into consideration when heading off to vote,
    including Sarkozy's failure to deliver on many of his election
    promises, including putting more money in people's pockets, making
    significant tax cuts and making France more competitive. Ankara
    continues to fume and to talk about further measures. However, those
    already in place have done nothing to deter Paris. Indeed Turkey has
    been taking measures (in particular regarding the defense sector)
    against France since 2001, when the French National Assembly approved
    a bill describing the Armenian killings as genocide, yet today France
    remains one of Turkey's biggest trading partners. Turkey has already
    "nuanced" its approach and no longer talks about sanctions against
    French companies. Turkey does not want to do anything that would
    damage its own economic interests, and last week Economy Minister
    Zafer Caglayan stated that measures will not be taken against
    French companies operating in Turkey and which employ thousands of
    Turks. However, just because the bill has been put on hold, it will
    not change anything regarding Turkey's relationship with its bĂȘte
    noir, Sarkozy. Indeed President Sarkozy's office had brushed off
    Turkey's recent talk of new sanctions and had vowed to enforce the
    law within a fortnight. So it would seem that whatever happens next,
    Turkey's relations with France are going to remain in an extremely
    precarious situation. If Sarkozy is re-elected, the situation will
    become even tougher.

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