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The Right To War Or The Right To Peace

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  • The Right To War Or The Right To Peace

    THE RIGHT TO WAR OR THE RIGHT TO PEACE

    http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=747:-the-right-to-war-or-the-right-to-peace-&catid=3:all&Itemid=4
    Monday, 02 July 2012 05:14

    Will Azerbaijan have an adequate understanding of the situation?

    Recently, the issue of war and peace has re-actualized in the Karabakh
    conflict zone.

    Many publications of the media comprise forecasts of analysts,
    including international ones, on the increasing probability of
    another war. Obviously, the wave of gloomy forecasts is caused by
    the sharp rise in tension on the contact-line of the parties to the
    conflict both in the Karabakh-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Azerbaijani
    border areas. As we know, only in June, as a result of Azerbaijan's
    provocative actions, several bloody armed incidents took place, which
    resulted in the deaths of over a dozen soldiers from both sides. In
    addition to this, extra tension is caused by the militaristic rhetoric
    of official Baku, which by all means tries to maintain the high degree
    of the situation already heated up to a limit.

    It is quite natural that the explosive situation created by Azerbaijan
    causes well-founded fear of both the international mediators involved
    in the Karabakh conflict settlement and the expert circles. It is no
    accident that at the recent G-20 Summit in Mexico, the Presidents of
    the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing states - Russia, the USA and France -
    re-issued a joint statement, in which they once again reminded that
    "the use of military force will not resolve the conflict".

    Will Baku listen to reason? Apparently, not. Recently, the General
    Headquarters of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces has issued a statement
    that "it will take 10 days to liberate the occupied territories and to
    reach the Armenian-Iranian border". Given the militaristic rhetoric of
    Baku and its arms race, the British research center of Oxford Analitica
    believes that Azerbaijan increases the volume of purchases of arms in
    order to achieve operational readiness in 2014, threatening to start
    a war, if by then no progress will be fixed in the negotiations. To a
    certain extent, the British are echoed by well-known European Program
    Director of the International Crisis Group Sabina Fraser who has
    suggested that the June clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
    parties are risky in growing into a war in the region. We should also
    add that the same research center of Oxford Analitica noted that,
    in fact, the Azerbaijani army was not ready for a new war.

    How real is a new war, and are there obvious prerequisites for it? To
    answer this question, we should, perhaps, first of all consider the
    actual geopolitical situation in our region. The beginning of the 90s,
    when, after the collapse of the Soviet Union certain chaos occurred in
    the South Caucasus and the world centers of power did not determine
    yet their priority interests in the region, as a result of which
    Azerbaijan could launch a war, without any control and punishment,
    against self-determined Nagorno Karabakh, has already passed into the
    history. The Karabakh conflict was long ago internationalized and went
    beyond the purely regional one, or Azerbaijan's peculiar monopoly
    on it is over, especially after a failed attempt to re-subordinate
    Karabakh. Today, Azerbaijan is trying to change the military balance
    in its favor, however, official Baku should take into account that
    now, when the interests of extra-regional political heavyweights
    are present in the South Caucasus, its right to independent actions
    becomes doubtful.

    Exclusively all the experts state that in case of the war resumption
    it will involve also other regional states, which is fraught with
    very serious consequences, which means that Azerbaijan will hardly
    be allowed to unleash it. After all, Armenia and Artsakh are not
    sitting idly. In other words, the high risk of another war serves
    also as a peculiar factor of its deterrence. However, sometimes you
    can hear that Azerbaijan may use the probable war in Iran and start
    large-scale military operations against the NKR. But, if the West
    plans to give Azerbaijan the role of a military base for attacking
    Iran, so under a similar development of situation it "shines" the
    prospect of war on two fronts.

    All the above mentioned about the unlikelihood of a new war, surely,
    has the right to life, but by no means negates the necessity of taking
    corresponding measures for preserving the balance of forces as an
    important factor of maintaining stability in the region. The question
    "to be or not to war?" is not rhetorical, but the most topical, and
    first of all, surely, for Nagorno-Karabakh. This is testified also by
    the fact that within the pre-election campaign started in the Nagorno
    Karabakh Republic the issue of war and peace is always raised at the
    meetings of the presidential candidates with the voters. Naturally,
    Acting President Bako Sahakyan is asked this question more frequently.

    At a recent meeting, the NKR President, speaking about the provocative
    actions of Azerbaijan and the probability of resumption of the
    full-scale combat operations, emphasized that in the previous war the
    enemy's ridge had been broken, and in case of a new war the enemy
    would be defeated utterly. Will Azerbaijan take a risk of another
    venture or will it have quite an adequate understanding of the possible
    development of the situation fraught with high risks for itself? Let us
    leave it upon the Baku authorities to make corresponding conclusions.

    Leonid MARTIROSSIAN

    Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper

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