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Hovhannes Igityan: One Cannot Expect "An Armenian Ivanishvili" To Ap

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  • Hovhannes Igityan: One Cannot Expect "An Armenian Ivanishvili" To Ap

    HOVHANNES IGITYAN: ONE CANNOT EXPECT "AN ARMENIAN IVANISHVILI" TO APPEAR IN INDIFFERENT ARMENIAN SOCIETY
    by David Stepanyan

    arminfo
    Tuesday, October 30, 14:31

    ArmInfo's interview with Hovhannes Igityan, member of the Board of the
    Armenian Pan National Movement, former head of the Armenian National
    Assembly Committee for Foreign Affairs (1995-1999).

    Would you forecast the outcome of the presidential elections in
    Armenia in Feb 2013?

    Given the nature of elections in Armenia, especially since 2008,
    it is clear that no civilized elections will be held in the republic
    in 2013 if nothing is changed in Armenia. The upcoming presidential
    elections will be almost the same as in 2008, but without any blood.

    They will be like the past parliamentary elections, the results of
    which pleased many European observers, by the way. That is to say,
    the visual aspect of the upcoming presidential elections will be quite
    good for the European observers. On the other hand, Armenia will
    undergo a process, which cannot even be called elections: people
    will go to the polls and drop the ballots into the ballot boxes for
    money or under administrative pressure. That's it.

    First of all political forces are considered to be the election
    participants in today's Armenia, and people forget that the key
    participant is the public, which is now more indifferent than ever.

    It is easy to handle the indifferent society's votes by means of money
    and administrative resources. Against this background, the appearance
    of an Armenian Ivanishvili is impossible.

    That is, money will not work in Armenia without the administrative
    resource, because the owner of the money will immediately go to jail.

    Thus, if this shameful situation fails to change in Armenia, the
    authorities will retain the power in Feb 2013.

    There are enough factors in Armenia to stir up the society: beating
    of soldiers, murders in the army, the crime in Harsnakar Restaurant,
    the impudence of politicians who appoint their children to state
    posts, total lawlessness, etc. The authorities have gone all the
    possible lines. All this should have stirred up our society long ago,
    but there is no such a thing. As a result, during the forthcoming
    presidential elections the authorities will draw the number of votes
    they like. They even can organize the second round of elections to
    demonstrate that Armenia has an alternative candidate and democracy.

    At the parliamentary elections in 2007 Robert Kocharyan had both
    money and administrative resources, but Prosperous Armenia did not
    gain majority in the parliament yielding to the Republicans...

    Kocharyan did not pursue a goal of making PAP the major party
    in the parliament. He had another goal. The changes made through
    Constitutional reform in 2005 connected the government with the
    parliamentary majority. The point was to form the prime minister in
    the person of Serzh Sargsyan, who then joined RPA accompanied by his
    supporters, and created majority in the ratio to the backbone of the
    Republicans headed by Andranik Margaryan. That goal of Kocharyan was
    achieved. I do not rule out that at a certain moment Kocharyan lost
    control of PAP, as he set too insignificant goals to return to power
    as a prime minister on the Russian scenario.

    Will RPA and PAP achieve any agreement before the presidential
    election or they will sit at the negotiating table after the voting
    outcome?

    In Armenia we have a distorted political system, where some forces
    act as a parliamentary majority, while the others as a minority. In a
    country where people do not decide anything everything turns into an
    absurd theater, where people having nothing to do with politics and
    the Republican Party of Armenia are admitted into that party and are
    appointed as ministers just because they 'belong' to it. The same is
    for the parliament, where the selfsame RPA has a majority. It would
    not have it if the parliament were elected by the people. The only
    thing the regime is afraid of is mass protest, but since there is no
    force that can lead people, the regime has nothing to worry about.

    Yes, but in case of relevant incentives, Gagik Tsarukyan may go
    to street and declare that he does not recognize the presidential
    election outcome. Isn't it a danger? 

    They in the Prosperous Armenia Party may say: "the presidential
    elections were a fraud" but they will still attend the new president's
    inauguration and will shake hands with Serzh Sargsyan.

    That is, everything will be according to the known scenario...

    Yes, everything will be according to the same scenario as the only
    alternative to RPA is people who love Armenia but can change nothing.

    What about 'Oskanian case'?

    Everybody in Armenia and mass media, look first of all at the
    political part of Oskanian's case. I offer to look at its judicial
    part thanks to which our authorities have been trying to demonstrate
    their explanation of the money laundering.

    I look at Oskanian's case through the prism of the actions
    taken earlier by the Russian authorities against non-governmental
    organizations which got foreign grants. Any foundation in Armenia,
    which is taking part in formation of civil society in this or that
    way, is extremely dangerous for the authorities of Armenia if it is
    financed from abroad, even if an Armenian finances another Armenian.

    Except the Civilitas, there is no such big foundation in Armenia. And
    what is incriminated to Vartan Oskanian is not linked with an idea
    of money laundering. I think that Oskanian could be accused by this
    article if like a politician he would be financed with the money
    got from drug traffic in Armenia. It is not the National Security
    Service that should investigate the case, as at present it watches
    the opposition not like a danger for the pro-power candidate but like
    a danger to national security. For this reason, NSS investigates all
    the cases linked with election 2008, Vartan Oskanian's case, etc.

    Few people know that there is drug traffic in Armenia, in a big
    scale. And all the sums gained from this trade enter in the official
    field just through laundering. I do not agree to the viewpoint
    according to which this process creates a political capital for
    Oskanian. I am sure that in such a way it is impossible to create an
    image of a persecuted politician in Armenia, as the Armenian society
    is indifferent.

    Did they want to punish Oskanian or PAP as well?

    Anyway, I think that they really wanted to punish Oskanian in such
    a way, for the others not to want make similar statements. They also
    wanted to punish Prosperous Armenia Party, as Oskanian would not be
    punished if not being a member of the PAP. Nevertheless, Oskanian
    has a right to run for president, but the majority of the society
    will hardly support him if he says about the election fraud".

    What is the share of external forces in the domestic political
    disturbances in Armenia?

    Some people in Armenia think that one can easily overthrow the local
    regime if supported from abroad, but this is not the case with Armenia,
    nor is it with the United States, Europe or Russia. On the contrary,
    the organizers of color revolutions have realized that it is much
    easier to influence an elected person than to make a revolution. But
    in case of Serzh Sargsyan they don't need to support him during the
    elections in order to make a puppet of him. A small country cannot
    help being influenced by super powers, but such things must be done
    in a civilized manner and not as Russia does when it sets its own
    price for an enterprise it likes in Armenia or as the United States
    does when it wants the country to take part in a NATO mission.

    At the same time I don't think that there is no alternative to Serzh
    Sargsyan for foreign forces. Simply, the situation Armenia has found
    itself in is very vulnerable as the authorities do their best to
    retain power only within their personal interests. Sometimes, in
    some countries the same people remain on the post of the president
    but in different quality and with different team and are reluctant
    to do quite different thinks.

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