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Moscow Conference Ponders Eurasian Security Challenges

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  • Moscow Conference Ponders Eurasian Security Challenges

    Moscow Conference Ponders Eurasian Security Challenges

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 103
    May 31, 2013 03:57 PM
    By: Richard Weitz


    Attendants at the "Military and Political Aspects of European
    Security" conference, Moscow, May 23 (Source: Reuters)

    The May 23 Moscow conference on `Military and Political Aspects of
    European Security,' hosted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, saw an
    interesting admixture of old and new thinking on seminal Eurasian
    security questions. Little progress can be expected in reducing
    Russia's and the North Atlantic Security Treaty's (NATO) differences
    concerning the military issues, but opportunities for mutually
    beneficial cooperation are present in the political areas (This author
    attended the conference).

    The Russian officials who spoke at the conference generally expressed
    pessimistic and familiar views regarding the United States' ballistic
    missile defense (BMD) system, NATO's membership enlargement and
    military presence in former Soviet bloc countries, the civil war in
    Syria, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, the
    Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the
    prerequisites for strategic and tactical nuclear arms control (see
    EDM, May 28). They repeatedly complained about the alliance's failure
    to take into account Russian concerns when making policy decisions,
    insufficient NATO cooperation with Moscow in pursuit of common
    interests, and needless NATO distrust of Russia.

    But Russian officials and non-governmental experts also offered
    positive assessments regarding possible cooperation with NATO on other
    issues, including Eurasian security relating to post-2014 Afghanistan
    and countering Islamist terrorism in Eurasia. In his welcoming message
    to the 200-300 conference attendees, President Vladimir Putin noted
    improvements in Russian-NATO relations in several areas, from renewed
    exchanges and joint exercises to cooperation regarding Afghanistan.
    Putin and other Russian officials attributed this progress to the
    absence of fundamental ideological differences between Russia and the
    West, the rise of multipolarity, the successful functioning of some
    arms-control agreements, expanding socioeconomic ties between Russia
    and the West, and mutual threats and interests (Russian defense
    ministry website, mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm,
    accessed May 30).

    The head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Ivanov, complained
    that some Western countries use `double standards' to judge
    international terrorism, such as their support for armed militants
    fighting the government of Syria. Ivanov also believed that Russia and
    NATO could cooperate more effectively in Afghanistan if the North
    Atlantic Alliance would collaborate directly with the Collective
    Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bloc of Moscow-leaning Eurasian
    countries that, in addition to Russia, includes Armenia, Belarus,
    Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

    Nonetheless, the Russian and Western speakers agreed that Afghanistan
    has been an important area of Russian-NATO cooperation in recent years
    and that this collaboration is likely to continue even as the
    Alliance-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) draws down
    its presence in Afghanistan. For example, Deputy Defense Minister
    Anatoly Antonov told an international security forum in Geneva last
    month that, `One can predict, with a high degree of probability,
    heightened terrorist activity after [the ISAF] military presence in
    this country is reduced' (Russian defense ministry website,
    mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm, accessed May 30).

    At the Moscow conference, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu cited
    international terrorism rather than NATO as the main threat to
    Russia's security, as well as international stability more generally.
    He endorsed the French military intervention in Mali and stressed the
    importance of Russia and the West working to keep weapons of mass
    destruction out of the hands of terrorists. Lieutenant General Igor
    Sergun, the head of Russia's military intelligence, told the attendees
    that European converts to Islam now fighting with the insurgents in
    Syria would likely return to their home countries and potentially
    engage in terrorism in Europe. Similarly, in Afghanistan, he warned
    that, `A diversified terrorist network, including suicide bomber
    training camps, has already been established in the country' by the
    Taliban, who could send their experienced foreign militants `to other
    hot spots across the world' (RIA Novosti, May 23). Nikolai Bordyuzha,
    the CSTO general secretary, also predicted that the security of
    Russia's southern borders would decrease following the end of ISAF's
    mission next year. Earlier this month, Russia's Ambassador to
    Afghanistan said that his government was still considering deploying
    its Border Troops back to Tajikistan to help that country, which
    borders Afghanistan, deal with the resurgence of Eurasian terrorism
    (RIA Novosti, May 17).

    The Central Asian countries, which sent their defense ministers or
    other senior officials to the Moscow conference, are particularly
    eager to sustain some NATO security assistance for their governments
    as well as the Afghan National Security Forces in coming years.
    Russian officials are not averse to such cooperation in principle even
    if they object to some specific initiatives, such as NATO's plans to
    transfer excess defense items from their forces in Afghanistan to some
    Central Asian countries, who normally obtain their military equipment
    from Russia. Given what happened after their former east European
    allies joined NATO and reequipped their Soviet-supplied armed forces
    with Western weapons, Russian experts fear that such transfers, which
    would likely occur at below market cost to the recipients, will
    undercut their own arms sales and the resulting leverage Moscow holds
    over the receiving governments, as well as make the Central Asian
    militaries depend more on NATO's good will for future defense supplies
    (Author's interviews at the conference site).

    A key theme of the Russian presentations at the conference was their
    fundamental dissatisfaction with how today's NATO-dominated European
    security structure does not accord Russia sufficient influence given
    Moscow's great power status and its large stake in Eurasian security
    developments. To address this problem, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
    Lavrov called on NATO governments to sign the draft European security
    treaty released by the Russian government several years ago. Western
    leaders have dismissed the draft treaty as being impractical and
    unnecessary, but Lavrov insisted that the proposal `remain on the
    agenda' because it was essential to make the general agreements on the
    indivisibility of security contained in OSCE declarations and other
    documents more specific, concrete and legally binding in the form of a
    draft treaty (Russian defense ministry website,
    www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/CD8E25B5082A4EEA44257B750033BBF1, accessed May
    30).

    NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is visiting
    Washington today (May 31), will likely discuss these issues in his
    meetings with President Barack Obama and other senior US officials.
    Obama and Putin have exchanged letters through their national security
    advisers in recent weeks, affirming a desire to cooperate further on
    security issues (Moscow Times, May 23). In the near term, Afghanistan
    and Central Asia look to be the most promising areas for Russia-NATO
    cooperation, given shared Russian and NATO concerns that the region
    will see a revival of Islamist terrorism there as Western combat
    troops continue their withdrawal.

    http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40971&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=e7f28b057b6d90391e284f4374e567a0

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