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Turkey Got A Chance To Act Against Armenia

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  • Turkey Got A Chance To Act Against Armenia

    TURKEY GOT A CHANCE TO ACT AGAINST ARMENIA

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - Monday, 03 March 2014, 14:25

    The paradox is that it is happening when the United States has lost
    interest in foreign policy, political and military presence in the
    region and the European Union and the leading European states are
    sincerely reluctant to deal with modest foreign political tasks. The
    Western community tried demonstratively to limit its activity but
    the West was suddenly pushed towards intensive isolation and blockade
    of Russia.

    The policy of isolation and blockade on behalf of the Western
    community had a passive and relative character; such a policy could
    be referred to as containment (the priority device of the United
    States), not isolation. Currently it reminds of the policy of the
    United States and the West on Russia at the moment of deployment of
    forces in Afghanistan. If a hothead hits a Ukrainian civil plane,
    the story of the Korean Boeing will repeat.

    There is reason to expect certain instructions and introduction for
    the troops on behalf of the command of NATO states. The U.S. and UK
    navy will be put in movement towards certain directions. No doubt
    Poland and Lithuania will accept such a turn as their star time and
    will take efforts to provide military and technical assistance to
    Ukraine, and NATO will do it through them.

    So far the West has not taken specific and determined actions to
    thwart the Russian economy, now all the great powers of the West
    are interested in this. A tougher scenario would be the beginning
    of a "cold war" in the result of which Russia will be hurled back
    socially and economically for decades, will lose opportunities for
    economic and social development, will have to consume its natural
    and economic resources by an accelerated schedule. The result will
    be another collapse of economy, political crisis and historic defeat.

    V. Putin or his successor will be arrested and they will follow Mikhail
    Gorbachev's destiny (at best). A lot of Armenians will remember him
    as someone who understood their needs and hopes well. In addition,
    it is taking place under less favorable political and historical
    conditions when the West, like never before, is unanimous in its policy
    on Russia. It did not gain partners in the South, and its key stake,
    China, hurried to avoid Russia's hopes, including for SCO.

    Russia will require that its vassals in CSTO react adequately,
    and Armenia will be most vulnerable. It is possible that Russia
    has already demanded something from Armenia, which is acceptable
    considering Armenia's commitments to Russia. It should be noted that
    Ukraine has modern rocket systems and could hit the Russian military
    base in Gyumri.

    In this situation Turkey and Azerbaijan will have every reason to act
    analogically and use force against Armenia. Turkey has an opportunity
    to "defend" its brotherly Azerbaijani people. Turkey has also received
    a powerful leverage to invade Crimea, considering the "threat" to the
    Crimean Tatars. Russia will not be able to resist Turkey because the
    Turkish navy in the Black Sea has three times more capacity than the
    Russian navy.

    It is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will turn to Turkey for military
    help and protection to which Ankara will react adequately. And in
    this case Russia will not have the ability to resist Turkey except
    provoking Karabakh War II. Iran will try to activate its presence in
    the South Caucasus, fearing that Turkey will fill in the vacuum when
    Russia will not fancy handling the region.

    In this situation Russia expects Armenia's membership to the Customs
    Union with "huge enthusiasm and brotherly feelings". However, Armenia
    will run into isolation, and all the implications of the next round of
    blockades will await it. Therefore, it is time to buy kersey boots,
    canned fish and beef (canned pork is not good enough), all kinds of
    cereals and beans, oil, matches and salt. The offices of pro-Russian
    newspapers and TV companies will be battered, pro-Russian journalists
    and commentators paid by Gazprom will be beaten severely (with baseball
    bats). Apparently, the "right sector" has already emerged in Yerevan,
    and the addresses and usual itineraries of "Gazprom's people" of the
    mass media are well-known.

    However, a different scenario is possible. Benefitting from the fuss
    on the international area, Russia will try to change the regime
    of Armenia which is not sufficiently convincingly pro-Russian and
    bring the "Gazprom's people" to power. In that case, they will
    not beat "Gazprom's people", while a horrible political terror and
    repressions will be launched against the anti-colonial groups but one
    will nevertheless have to buy canned food and kersey boots. This is
    for sure.

    - See more at:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32018#sthash.d6HNI6ev.dpuf




    From: A. Papazian
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