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  • Armenia: Has Yerevan Pushed Past A Geopolitical Point Of No Return?

    ARMENIA: HAS YEREVAN PUSHED PAST A GEOPOLITICAL POINT OF NO RETURN?

    EurasiaNet.org
    April 4 2014

    April 4, 2014 - 11:46am, by Emil Danielyan

    Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan (right) and Russian President
    Vladimir Putin hold bilateral talks in Yerevan in early December 2013.

    Armenia, a soon-to-be member of the Eurasian Customs Union, was one
    of 11 countries to vote against a UN resolution calling Crimea's
    referendum for independence illegal. (Photo: Armenian Presidential
    Press Service)

    As the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds, the Armenian government is
    casting its diplomatic lot with the Kremlin. Some in Yerevan worry
    the government is committing a geopolitical blunder by expressing a
    clear preference for Russia over the West.

    While Armenia has always had a special relationship with Russia,
    and hosts Russian troops on its territory, the government tended
    to cultivate good relations with the United States and the European
    Union. However, in recent months, predating the Euromaidan movement's
    appearance in Kyiv, Yerevan began to lean strongly in Moscow's
    direction, underscored by last fall's decision of President Serzh
    Sargsyan's administration to opt for membership in the Russian-led
    Customs Union over a stronger EU partnership.

    A potential watershed moment occurred March 27, when Armenia voted
    against a pro-Ukrainian resolution overwhelmingly adopted by the United
    Nations General Assembly. The resolution, drafted by Ukraine and backed
    by 99 other states, condemned as illegal the March 16 referendum in
    Crimea that preceded Russia's annexation of the peninsula. It was
    rejected by only 11 nations, including Russia, Armenia, and such
    international pariahs as North Korea, Sudan and Syria.

    Commenting on Armenia's vote, Artak Zakarian, the pro-government
    chairperson of the Armenian parliamentary Committee on Foreign
    Relations, asked in a March 31 Facebook post, "Why should have Armenia
    not supported its ally, if the latter needed such support?"

    A statement by UN Ambassador Karen Nazarian emphasized the right to
    self-determination, a principle also mentioned by President Sargsyan
    in his March 19 phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
    and long championed by Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yet
    Armenian opposition groups, notably the Prosperous Armenia Party
    (BHK), the country's second largest parliamentary force, have stated
    that by joining some of the world's most notorious "rogue states"
    in voting against the Crimea resolution, Yerevan dealt a serious
    blow to the country's international reputation. "Russia is headed
    to self-imposed international isolation and it's dragging us along,"
    said Alexander Arzumanian, an opposition lawmaker and former foreign
    minister (1996-1998). Arzumanian spoke of a "serious deviation" from
    the foreign policy strategy to which successive Armenian governments
    had generally adhered since independence in 1991.

    "That is very bad for Armenia's image, and our relations with
    the West," said another former senior diplomat, who did not
    want to be identified. "I have never seen such slavishness in
    foreign-policy-making before. This cannot do us any good. Even the
    Russians are surprised," he added.

    Armenian foreign policy came to be known as "complementary" during the
    1998-2008 tenure of former President Robert Kocharian. It essentially
    boiled down to combining close political, military and economic
    links with Russia, Armenia's main ally, with growing cooperation
    with Western powers in a range of areas, including security. After
    succeeding Kocharian in 2008, Sargsyan continued and even stepped
    up this delicate balancing act; a policy that earned him relatively
    strong US and EU support.

    "We are a nation carrying European values and our aim is to
    develop our society along the lines of those values," the Armenian
    president declared during a June 2013 visit to Poland. In a letter
    to US President Barack Obama sent shortly afterwards, he described
    US-Armenian relations as closer than ever before, and claimed that
    they serve as a "strong prerequisite" for Armenia's security and
    economic development.

    Just two months later, however, Sargsyan abruptly decided to make
    Armenia part of the Russian-led Customs Union at the expense of a
    far-reaching Association Agreement with the EU. While the volte-face
    was widely attributed to Russian pressure, his pro-Russian position
    on the Ukraine crisis reinforced that trend.

    Some observers wonder what the cost will be to Armenia.

    "Whereas in the past, they said in the West that Armenia is under
    Russia's influence, they are now openly calling it a discredited
    Russian satellite," said the former Armenian diplomat. Although Yerevan
    will face no punitive Western measures in the months to come, he noted,
    this negative perception "will manifest itself over time."

    Washington already declined in December to provide multimillion-dollar
    economic assistance to Armenia under its Millennium Challenge Account
    program, even though Yerevan in November met domestic reform criteria
    set by the US government agency handling the aid scheme. The latter
    gave no reasons for the rebuff. Armenia has also missed out on even
    more large-scale aid that was promised by the EU before Sargsyan's
    Customs Union U-turn.

    Despite the unmistakable signs of a cold front moving in from the West,
    the Armenian government continues to speak about of a complementary
    foreign policy. On March 6, Sargsyan told a Dublin summit of the
    European People's Party that "Armenia will continue its policy of
    complementing and harmonizing interests." Similarly, Armenian Prime
    Minister Tigran Sarkisian, during a March 20 visit to Brussels,
    expressed hope that the EU would sign with Armenia, as with Ukraine,
    the political segment of an association agreement.

    Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt ruled out such a possibility
    on March 23, telling RFE/RL that Armenia no longer has a "political
    affinity" with the EU.

    For its part, the US has voiced disappointment about Armenia's vote
    against the UN resolution on Crimea, but, in written comments to
    EurasiaNet.org, the US Embassy in Yerevan said that it continues
    "to engage with Armenia on many issues."

    Among those issues are Armenia's increased military cooperation with
    the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which includes Armenian
    participation in the NATO-led missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo,
    and international efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict. President
    Sargsyan assured visiting members of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly
    on March 27 that his administration remains committed to "the effective
    and constructive cooperation" with the alliance.

    But whether such cooperation is enough to patch over the growing
    differences with the West is uncertain. "I think authorities presume
    that this is a temporary deviation [from complementarism] and that
    eventually they will be able to get back on track and our Western
    partners will understand us," said Arzumanian. "But I have serious
    doubts on this score because such a return would be very difficult."

    Editor's note: Emil Danielyan is a journalist based in Yerevan.

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68238


    From: Baghdasarian
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