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ALIYEV-KOCHARIAN MEETING WAS DOOMED TO FAILURE - ARMENIAN ANALYST
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Aug 30 2005
Baku, August 29, AssA-Irada
The meeting of the Azeri and Armenian presidents Ilham Aliyev
and Robert Kocharian held last Saturday was 'doomed to failure', a
well-known Armenian political analyst said. "The meeting, held within
the CIS summit in Kazan, Russia certainly means some progress. But
both Aliyev and Kocharian understood well that it would be extremely
difficult to agree upon anything on the eve of the parliament
election in Azerbaijan", Andranik Migranian told Russian media.
"The pre-election situation has heated up in Azerbaijan so much that
any talk of compromises is harshly disapproved there. The meeting
was therefore doomed to fail beforehand." Asked what Azerbaijan and
Armenia should do to achieve success in the conflict settlement,
Migranian said that 'the conflicting sides themselves cannot do
anything on their own'. "In this case, the decision may be imposed by
the international community or the status quo in the current situation
will remain. This may continue until one of the sides decides that
it is strong enough to solve the problem through military action."
The analyst said that certain progress in the conflict resolution
could be achieved if superpowers 'imposed a compromise solution on
the conflicting sides'. "Without this decision, it is difficult for
the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia to explain to their own
electorate why they would accept such unfavorable concessions."
Asked if Russia may step up its mediating role in the conflict
settlement, Migranian said this country is involved in the process
anyway. "However, Russia's current potential does not allow doing
more that it is doing now." "Russia has limited financial, economic
and military-political potential, not to mention the fact that it has
almost lost its influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan...Many do not see
Russia as a country that has a key to the resolution of the Garabagh
problem any more. Azerbaijan binds greater hopes for Washington or
Brussels rather than Moscow in this respect." The analyst said that
the increase of Azerbaijan's military spending stated by President
Ilham Aliyev earlier is a 'move aimed at pressuring Armenia'.
Migranian did not rule out that the Azeri government is 'tempted to
make a decision to fight back'. "When they build up certain military
potential, they may resort to fighting back", he said.*
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Aug 30 2005
Baku, August 29, AssA-Irada
The meeting of the Azeri and Armenian presidents Ilham Aliyev
and Robert Kocharian held last Saturday was 'doomed to failure', a
well-known Armenian political analyst said. "The meeting, held within
the CIS summit in Kazan, Russia certainly means some progress. But
both Aliyev and Kocharian understood well that it would be extremely
difficult to agree upon anything on the eve of the parliament
election in Azerbaijan", Andranik Migranian told Russian media.
"The pre-election situation has heated up in Azerbaijan so much that
any talk of compromises is harshly disapproved there. The meeting
was therefore doomed to fail beforehand." Asked what Azerbaijan and
Armenia should do to achieve success in the conflict settlement,
Migranian said that 'the conflicting sides themselves cannot do
anything on their own'. "In this case, the decision may be imposed by
the international community or the status quo in the current situation
will remain. This may continue until one of the sides decides that
it is strong enough to solve the problem through military action."
The analyst said that certain progress in the conflict resolution
could be achieved if superpowers 'imposed a compromise solution on
the conflicting sides'. "Without this decision, it is difficult for
the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia to explain to their own
electorate why they would accept such unfavorable concessions."
Asked if Russia may step up its mediating role in the conflict
settlement, Migranian said this country is involved in the process
anyway. "However, Russia's current potential does not allow doing
more that it is doing now." "Russia has limited financial, economic
and military-political potential, not to mention the fact that it has
almost lost its influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan...Many do not see
Russia as a country that has a key to the resolution of the Garabagh
problem any more. Azerbaijan binds greater hopes for Washington or
Brussels rather than Moscow in this respect." The analyst said that
the increase of Azerbaijan's military spending stated by President
Ilham Aliyev earlier is a 'move aimed at pressuring Armenia'.
Migranian did not rule out that the Azeri government is 'tempted to
make a decision to fight back'. "When they build up certain military
potential, they may resort to fighting back", he said.*