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  • Fitch downgrades Armenia

    Fitch downgrades Armenia

    10:16 * 31.01.15


    Fitch Ratings has downgraded Armenia's Long-term foreign and local
    currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B+' from 'BB-', Reuters
    reported.

    The Outlook is said to be Stable. The issue ratings on Armenia's
    senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been
    downgraded to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The Country Ceiling has been revised to
    'BB-' from 'BB' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR affirmed at
    'B'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The downgrade of Armenia's Long-term IDRs
    reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:
    High Armenia is highly exposed to the severe economic downturn
    inRussia (BBB-/Negative), which will weigh heavily on Armenia's
    balance of payment and growth prospects.

    The economy is expected to fall into a mild recession in 2015, with
    risks tilted to the downside given the worsening economic situation in
    Russiaand likely negative impact on external imbalances and further
    depreciation pressures. The current account deficit is expected to
    widen again in 2015 as a result of a sharp reduction in both
    remittances inflows and export demand from Russia. Remittances amount
    to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of
    2014 as 90% of the total come fromRussia. The impact of the fall in
    oil prices on imports will be largely outweighed by the strengthening
    of the dollar and a decline in international prices of key Armenian
    exports. Mining exports, especially copper, account for about half of
    Armenia's goods exports. Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank
    of Armenia (CBA) are expected to continue their downward trend from a
    relatively low level of USD1.49bn in December 2014. The decline in
    reserves is primarily due to lower current account receipts and FDI
    inflows, but also, to a lesser extent, to market intervention by the
    CBA to limit the depreciation of the Armenian dram.


    Foreign currency reserves are expected to represent about three months
    of current account payments in 2015-16, compared with more than four
    months on average in 2010-13. Medium Public debt dynamics are highly
    sensitive to depreciation risks, as about 80% of public debt is
    foreign currency denominated. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose to nearly 50%
    in 2014, primarily as a result of exchange rate depreciation. The
    ratio is expected to remain broadly stable in the coming years but
    this assumes a stabilisation of the exchange rate. Risks are to the
    downside. Fiscal policy has been prudent since 2010, and we expect the
    government to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP. Armenia is
    highly reliant on Russian gas supplies, remittances and military
    support, leaving it particularly vulnerable to economic and policy
    changes in Russia. Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union
    in January 2015 will further deepen its economic, financial, political
    and institutional ties with Russia. Despite recent events in Gyumri,
    we expect the close bilateral relationship to remain and to continue
    weighing on Armenia's economic and institutional setting. The
    financial sector is highly dollarised and will therefore be negatively
    impacted by the depreciation of the Armenian dram. The depreciation
    and economic downturn are likely to bring about an increase in
    non-performing loans and to dent the currently robust capital adequacy
    ratios. The CBA has increased the minimum capital requirements for
    banks, which could trigger some consolidation in the sector. Armenia's
    'B+' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers: The CBA
    raised its refinancing rate twice in recent months to 9.5%. The
    Armenian dram depreciated by 17% in 2014. Inflation is expected to
    pick up to 6.5% in 2015 (CBA target range: 2.5%-5.5%) as a result of
    higher import prices, although relatively moderate pass-through
    effects should contain the impact.

    Armenia benefits from an IMF Extended Fund Facility for 2014-17 worth
    USD119.1m, which acts as a policy anchor. Armenia is expected to
    continue fulfilling the performance criteria and to continue to enjoy
    support from major international financial institutions, primarily to
    finance large infrastructure projects. Armenia's business environment
    compares favourably with rating peers, as illustrated by the World
    Bank's ease of doing business indicators. Armenia's geopolitical
    environment is a constraint on the rating. The latent conflict with
    Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region entails the risk
    of escalating into a full-scale conflict. No resolution is expected in
    the short term.


    http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/31/fitch/1575198

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