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  • Talking Points

    TALKING POINTS
    By Paul Abelsky

    Russia Profile, Russia
    Nov 30 2006

    CIS Seeks a New Course, But With Little Agreement As to Its Nature

    The CIS has seen its mission and utility tested and transformed in
    recent years, struggling to adapt to changing political environments
    and diverse challenges. For all the anachronisms of the NATO bloc,
    which also met last week, the recent gathering of the CIS leaders in
    Minsk, Belarus, offered a particularly vivid exercise in fractious
    internal rivalries, made worse by the mingling of political ambitions
    and economic imperatives.

    The proceedings of the annual CIS summit were held in the recently
    completed building of the National Library of Belarus, a striking
    diamond-shaped edifice on the city center's edge that is seen as
    a high mark of President Alexander Lukashenko's public works. The
    gathering brought together presidents of 11 countries, some of whom
    have spent recent months strenuously trying to avoid contact with one
    another. Saparmurat Niyazov, president of Turkmenistan, has regularly
    sent a deputy official in his stead.

    This year's summit marked the 15th anniversary of the CIS, a coalition
    borne out of the Soviet breakup and variously described as a means
    of a civilized divorce and a vehicle for Russia's post-imperial
    aspirations. In recent years, tensions between individual member
    states have started to strain the alliance, as some countries have
    come to question the practical value of the commonwealth.

    "The CIS continues to be a viable organization, even though countries
    other than Russia are the ones capitalizing on its benefits," said
    Alexander Fadeyev, an expert at the Institute for CIS States in
    Moscow. "There is a struggle for leadership unfolding at the moment,
    but Russia is the only country that can balance the various interests
    and mediate conflict. Kazakhstan also aspires to the leadership role
    but it is clearly perceived as a rival by some of the other member
    states who are looking out for their own national interests."

    The run of "color revolutions" in former Soviet republics and the
    emergence of a new generation of leaders, particularly in Georgia,
    have put in doubt the value of an association formed to sustain the
    bonds officially severed with the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

    The rise of alternative alliances, such as GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine,
    Azerbaijan, Moldova) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a
    loose partnership between Russia, China, and several Central Asian
    states, exemplifies the pursuit of alliances driven by more immediate
    pragmatic concerns and the geopolitical realities prevailing today.

    More recently, faced with Russia's pledge to raise the price of its
    hydrocarbon exports, Belarus has tried to nudge Ukraine and Azerbaijan
    toward greater cooperation in the energy sector.

    The CIS has nonetheless managed to defy the grim assessments of its
    future that regularly appear with the annual summit. It remains perhaps
    the last forum for the presidents of Russia and Georgia to meet without
    facing undue expectations, or for the Armenian and Azerbaijan leaders
    to discuss the intractable problem of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ritualized
    threats of secession by some countries have so far come to naught. What
    is more, this year's meeting was animated by a reform agenda, focused
    on making the alliance framework more efficient and bringing the
    mission of the commonwealth up to date.

    But the results have proven to be inconclusive at best. The countries
    signed a 42-page document produced by a special reform committee
    assigned the task of streamlining CIS operations and formulating
    a strategy for future development. Other than a general commitment
    to reform, the most tangible part of the agreement was the plan to
    conduct further talks about the CIS restructuring at next year's
    summit, tentatively scheduled to be held in St. Petersburg.

    "While there is a consensus on the need to reform, all the countries
    have their own ideas on how to go about the process," Fadeyev said.

    "Unfortunately, Russia has been mostly silent on this, and has
    not offered a specific project of its own. Russia should certainly
    continue to use its assets in the energy sector to its advantage,
    but it also needs to utilize other levers of influence in such areas
    as military cooperation, trade, migration, and others."

    The final press conference, shadowed by a scandal involving three
    accredited Russian journalists who were not allowed to take part,
    featured Nursultan Nazarbayev, president of Kazakhstan, and CIS
    Executive Secretary Vladimir Rushailo, who broadly outlined the
    summit's outcome. The main agreements reached at the meeting
    included a statement on efforts to combat illegal migration and
    accords on combating money laundering, financing terrorism, and
    human trafficking. Rushailo also said a separate document was signed
    summarizing progress made to date on a program of economic integration
    within the CIS to be accomplished by 2010.

    The participants chose not to discuss or were not able to strike deals
    on a set of other major issues. These included clarifying the legal
    formulation of state borders between the member countries, as well
    as a memorandum, proposed by Ukraine, on free trade and the use of
    protectionist measures within the commonwealth. Russia also opposed
    any changes to the status of the special CIS tribunal charged with
    adjudicating economic disputes within the organization.

    Before departing for Moscow, the Russian president told journalists
    that the summit was "productive and business-like," adding that the
    participants reached a consensus on the need for the organization
    to continue to function and develop."We agreed that there is need
    for the organization, whose potential has not yet been realized,"
    Putin said. "At the same time, serious changes have transpired in
    the post-Soviet space, and the organization should adapt to today's
    realities."

    Other leaders judged the outcome based on what their individual
    countries were able to accomplish. Ukrainian President Viktor
    Yushchenko sounded disappointed with some of the results, saying
    that Ukraine's position wasn't fully taken into account. Mikheil
    Saakashvili, president of Georgia, has characterized his unofficial
    talks with Putin as the "start of a dialogue" that addressed some of
    the key problems in their bilateral relations. The Russian embassy in
    Minsk also hosted a meeting between Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev,
    presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively, accompanied by
    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

    While Russia and Georgia have barely managed to skirt the issues
    dividing the two countries, there was a tentative breakthrough in
    Russian-Moldovan trade relations, with Russia agreeing to lift the
    ban on Moldovan wine and meat imports. In exchange, Moldova has
    pledged to sign the protocol necessary for Russia's entry into the
    World Trade Organization.

    >>From Russia's position, the most worrisome development is the talk
    of an energy consortium between Ukraine, Belarus, and Azerbaijan. The
    leaders of the three countries met for a separate discussion, focused
    in particular on the transit of Caspian oil to the European market.

    According to Fadeyev, such a consolidation of the CIS member states
    is a cause of concern because of its implied anti-Russian character,
    driven by tensions over rising hydrocarbon prices: "The integrationist
    processes should be allowed to proceed within the CIS unless they
    try specifically to preclude Russia's participation."
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