Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Armenia braces for political upheaval

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Armenia braces for political upheaval

    EurasiaNet Organization
    April 1 2004

    ARMENIA BRACES FOR POLITICAL UPHEAVAL
    Emil Danielyan: 4/01/04

    Armenia's leadership and opposition are gearing up for a potentially
    violent confrontation. An opposition coalition is planning to hold
    massive anti-government protests in early April. Some opposition
    leaders have publicly called for the resignation of President Robert
    Kocharian and have advocated civil disobedience to achieve that end.
    Authorities have responded by threatening to crack down on opposition
    leaders for attempting to "seize state power with violence."

    The confrontation began building in late March when the country's two
    main opposition groups joined forces in an apparent bid to encourage
    popular protests along the lines of the "Rose Revolution" in
    neighboring Georgia. Those protests ended up forcing former Georgian
    leader Eduard Shevardnadze to step down, and paved the way for
    President Mikheil Saakashvili's rise to power. [For background see
    the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Artarutiun (Justice) alliance led
    by Stepan Demirchian and the National Unity Party of Artashes
    Geghamian have set an April 12 deadline for the launch of a civil
    disobedience campaign against what they say is Kocharian's
    "illegitimate" administration. Opposition leaders insist that
    Kocharian rigged last year's presidential and parliamentary
    elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    The opposition says it has been forced to adopt a protest strategy
    because of the Kocharian administration's refusal to organize a
    nationwide no-confidence referendum on the government's performance.
    A ruling by Armenia's Constitutional Court on April 16, 2003, had
    recommended the holding of a no-confidence referendum within a year's
    time. The ruling did not strictly order the government to organize a
    referendum, however.

    Demirchian and Geghamian were Kocharian's main challengers in the
    disputed 2003 presidential ballot. Authorities are taking their
    threats seriously, with Kocharian indicating his readiness to use
    force against crowds that are expected to march towards his official
    residence in the center of Yerevan. A March 26 statement by the three
    pro-presidential parties represented in his government warned that
    the law-enforcement bodies have a legitimate right to counter
    "attempts to violate the country's constitutional law" with tough
    action.

    The office of Armenia's Prosecutor General issued a statement March
    31 in which it announced the opening of a criminal investigation into
    the Justice bloc's protests over the past month. The prosecutor's
    office suggested the protests had "publicly insulted representatives
    of government."

    Demirchian and other Justice bloc leaders were quick to denounce the
    investigation, issuing a statement that characterized the
    prosecutors' actions as "an unprecedented attempt at political
    persecution. ... The decision shows that authorities, who are in
    their death throes, have lost the ability to think rationally."

    The opposition may have got a taste of things to come when nine of
    its activists were arrested March 28 during and after a Justice bloc
    rally in Armenia's second largest city of Gyumri. During the rally,
    opposition supporters scuffled with a group of government loyalists
    and plainclothes police in what the rally organizers portrayed as a
    government "provocation." "Today's provocation shows that Robert
    Kocharian's days in power are numbered," one of the rally organizers,
    Victor Dallakian, told the angry crowd.

    According to Dallakian and other Justice bloc leaders, the opposition
    plan is to surround the presidential palace and the nearby parliament
    compound in the Armenian capital with tens of thousands of people who
    will stand there "day and night" until Kocharian steps down. The
    chances that the rallies would take place as planned were boosted
    with the signing on March 24 of an agreement between Demirchian and
    Geghamian to engage in joint action. Geghamian had previously refused
    to attend Justice bloc rallies, saying that they were
    counterproductive.

    A key question is precisely how many people will take to the streets.
    Demirchian and Geghamian hope to pull in large crowds from the
    regions outside Yerevan, and have been separately campaigning across
    Armenia for over a month. The Gyumri demonstration was part of that
    effort. "The regime's fate is predetermined," Demirchian told its
    participants, assuring them that his deal with Geghamian will lead to
    "the restoration of constitutional order."

    "We will act in a united front for regime change and popular
    salvation from this deplorable situation," Geghamian said,
    campaigning in the central Aragatsotn province on March 26.

    The authorities, meanwhile, are expected to tighten security around
    the two government buildings. Marshal Baghramian Avenue, one of
    Yerevan's main thoroughfares leading to them, was repeatedly blocked
    with hundreds of riot police and interior troops armed with rubber
    truncheons, tear gas grenades and water cannon during the 2003
    election protests. The show of force contrasted sharply with a thin
    row of riot police outside the parliament building in Tbilisi that
    was easily overrun by scores of opposition supporters during the
    November Rose Revolution.

    This contrast highlighted Armenia's important difference from
    Georgia: the existence of a powerful and well-organized security
    apparatus feared by the population. It might explain why the Armenian
    opposition did not try to storm government buildings in the wake of
    the presidential ballot controversially won by Kocharian. Yet,
    opposition leaders were clearly buoyed by the success of the Georgian
    revolt and, as local observers believe, might not be as restrained
    this time around. "The outcome of the confrontation is unpredictable
    because it is impossible to predict the behavior of security
    structures and various government factions in a crisis situation,"
    commented the Yerevan newspaper "Iravunk."

    Those structures underwent sweeping personnel changes earlier in
    March. Kocharian replaced Armenia's prosecutor-general, Aram
    Tamazian, with one of his most loyal law-enforcement officials,
    Aghvan Hovsepian. The president also sacked most of the district
    prosecutors in Yerevan, and made over a dozen new appointments in the
    leadership of the Armenian police. The official motive for the
    reshuffle was to improve the law-enforcement bodies' ability to fight
    against corruption and protect the rule of law. However, political
    observers believe the reshuffle is linked to the brewing political
    battle.

    To counter recent opposition maneuvering, Kocharian's administration
    undertook its own public relations campaign, with ministers
    dispatched to economically depressed rural areas of the country to
    hear local residents' myriad complaints, and "present" government
    policies to them. The government accuses the opposition of exploiting
    the economic hardship endured by many Armenians for political
    purposes. Some Armenian observers say the government's charm
    offensive did little to shore up its popular support. The reception
    given to high-level officials in most regions was at best lukewarm.

    Popular discontent over the lack of economic opportunity, coupled
    with the continuing fallout from the troubled elections, has the
    potential to fuel instability. "My vote was stolen and I still feel
    offended," said Hovannes Mejlumian, an opposition supporter in
    Gyumri. "The authorities' track record shows that there is nothing
    good they can do."

    Garegin Jambazian, a retired army officer, sounded more bullish: "I
    am in a state of full combat readiness. I am ready to fight against
    them to death."


    Editor's Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
    political analyst.
Working...
X