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  • CrisisWatch =?unknown?q?N=B055=2C_1?= March 2008

    CrisisWatch N°55, 1 March 2008

    International Crisis Group, Belgium
    March 1 2008

    Twelve actual or potential conflict situations around the world
    deteriorated in February 2008, and four improved, according to the
    new issue of CrisisWatch, released today.

    The situation deteriorated in Armenia, where - as CrisisWatch went to
    press - a violent crackdown sought to suppress eleven days of
    protests after presidential elections that the opposition claimed
    were rigged. A state of emergency has been declared, and armed forces
    are reportedly mobilising for broader repression.

    Attacks on Timor-Leste's president and prime minister underlined the
    need for security sector reform in the fragile country. Yet their
    aftermath - including the killing of former head of military police
    Alfredo Reinado, who led the attack on the president - presents an
    opportunity for the government to address key issues.

    Rebels in Chad launched a major assault on the capital N'Djamena in
    which hundreds were killed and thousands displaced. A state of
    emergency is still in place amid reports of a heavy government
    crackdown. In Darfur, the Sudanese government attacked three towns
    and an IDP camp from both ground and air, marking the worst violence
    in the region in months.

    The situation also deteriorated in Cameroon, Comoros Islands, DR
    Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Israel/Occupied Territories, Philippines,
    Serbia and Somalia.

    The situation improved in Kosovo, as its 17 February declaration of
    independence was met with widespread celebrations and limited unrest
    in Serb enclaves. In Kenya, a power-sharing deal ended a month of
    difficult negotiations between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition
    leader Raila Odinga, as the country began to move forward from its
    post-election political crisis, though the situation is still very
    fragile. In Pakistan, opposition parties that could dismantle
    military rule swept to power in relatively peaceful mid-month
    elections. And in Cyprus, President-elect Christofias vowed to meet
    at the "earliest possible date" for reunification talks with his
    Turkish-Cypriot counterpart.

    For March 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Armenia, Comoros Islands and
    Kenya as Conflict Risk Alerts. It identifies Cyprus, Pakistan,
    Timor-Leste and Uganda as Conflict Resolution Opportunities.

    FEBRUARY 2008 TRENDS

    Deteriorated Situations
    Armenia, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros Islands, DR Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea,
    Israel/Occupied Territories, Philippines, Serbia, Somalia, Sudan,
    Timor-Leste

    Improved Situations
    Cyprus, Kenya, Kosovo, Pakistan

    Unchanged Situations
    Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
    Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
    Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte
    d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
    Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon,
    Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma,
    Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus
    (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra
    Leone, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan,
    Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
    Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.

    MARCH 2008 OUTLOOK

    Conflict Risk Alerts
    Armenia, Comoros Islands, Kenya

    Conflict Resolution Opportunity
    Cyprus, Pakistan, Timor-Leste, Uganda

    *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk
    alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to
    reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month,
    not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk
    alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and
    is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is
    given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

    --Boundary_(ID_MQSh0FvJ4Uzqn7MGn7wFXg)--
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