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  • CrisisWatch =?unknown?q?N=B056=2C_1?= April 2008

    CRISISWATCH N°56, 1 APRIL 2008

    International Crisis Group
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id =5368&l=2
    April 1 2008
    Belgium

    Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world
    deteriorated in March 2008, and four improved, according to the new
    issue of CrisisWatch released today.

    Early results of Zimbabwe's 29 March presidential, parliamentary and
    municipal elections were strongly disputed, underlining the risk that
    escalated repression and unrest may follow but also highlighting
    the possibility of positive change. As CrisisWatch went to press,
    reports suggested President Mugabe was under pressure from close
    associates to resign and/or negotiate a transfer of power.

    Protests in Tibet turned violent on 14 March and unrest spread to
    Tibetan-populated areas of neighbouring provinces, prompting the
    deployment of thousands of police. Casualty numbers were difficult
    to verify after foreign media access was heavily restricted; Beijing
    said there were 22 deaths, while the Tibetan government in exile
    said over 140. In Kosovo, violence in Mitrovica and Belgrade's push
    for partition underscored the fragility of the post-independence
    situation. Hundreds were killed in Iraq after the government mounted
    a major operation against Shiite militias operating in Basra, with
    serious clashes also in Baghdad and cities across the south.

    The situation also deteriorated in Armenia, Democratic Republic of
    Congo, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Korea, and Somalia.

    The situation improved in Cyprus as President Christofias and Turkish
    Cypriot leader Talat met in Nicosia for the first time, where they
    agreed to open the Ledra border crossing and begin preparations for
    formal reunification talks. In Pakistan, new Prime Minister Yousaf
    Raza Gilani ordered the release of several members of the judiciary,
    including former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, amid a relatively
    peaceful political transition after February's elections. In the
    Comoros Islands, the government, backed by African Union troops,
    restored control over rebel-held Anjouan island quickly and with
    little resistance. The situation also improved in the Taiwan Strait
    following the election of Ma Ying-jeou as President, who pledged to
    improve relations with China.

    For April 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Zimbabwe and Nepal as both
    Conflict Risk Alerts and Conflict Resolution Opportunities. It also
    identifies Cyprus and Uganda as Conflict Resolution Opportunities.

    MARCH 2008 TRENDS

    Deteriorated Situations Armenia, China (internal), Democratic Republic
    of Congo, Kosovo, Iraq, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Korea,
    Somalia

    Improved Situations Comoros Islands, Cyprus, Pakistan, Taiwan Strait

    Unchanged Situations Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola,
    Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia,
    Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic,
    Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt,
    Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India
    (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories,
    Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali,
    Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria North Caucasus
    (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Peru, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia,
    Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka,
    Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan,
    Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

    APRIL 2008 OUTLOOK

    Conflict Risk Alerts Nepal, Zimbabwe

    Conflict Resolution Opportunities Cyprus, Nepal, Uganda, Zimbabwe

    *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk
    alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to
    reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month,
    not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk
    alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and
    is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is
    given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

    --Boundary_(ID_p+8z/pOan2+IfnoD4kO/dg)--
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