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ANKARA: New Transnistria precedent - ANALYTICS

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  • ANKARA: New Transnistria precedent - ANALYTICS

    Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
    May 29 2008


    New Transnistria precedent - ANALYTICS

    [ 29 May 2008 13:08 ]

    New model may be formed on settlement of frozen conflicts

    Bucharest. Dr. Fakhri Karimli-APA. All the conflicts inherited from
    the former USSR are in the area of GUAM member states: Abkhazia, South
    Ossetia (Georgia), Nagorno Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Transdnestria
    (Moldova). They are also called `frozen conflicts'. But it seems if
    the developments go on like this, we will soon witness `melting' of
    the latter.

    Chairman of Moldova's parliament Marian Lupu met with his counterpart
    from `Transnistria Republic of Moldova' Yevgeny Shevchuk in Brussels
    on May 14. They decided to restore the discussions on Transnistrian
    conflict as soon as possible. They discussed free travel of people
    along both banks of the Dniester and mutual confidence-building
    measures. The meeting on this level was last held seven years
    ago. Shevchuk's visit to Brussels is also interesting from other
    aspect, he is the first separatist leader to enter the area of EU
    member states, after Moldova asked the European Union to lift the
    travel ban off the Transnistria leaders.

    The travel ban was lifted after the meeting between the President of
    Moldova Vladimir Voronin Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov in Bendery
    (Tighina) on April 14. In exchange for this, Igor Smirnov allowed
    travel of Moldovan official in the separatist republic. They decided
    to continue these contacts and dialogue on the level of
    commissions. The last meeting on this level was held in August,
    2001,later the situation became tense after Moldova imposed political
    and economic blockade on Transnistria with the help of Ukraine and the
    process of negotiations in the format 5+2 (USA< Russia, Ukraine,
    European Union, OSCE + Moldova) was suspended. Voronin was even not
    allowed to attend the burial of his mother, who had been from
    Transnistria.

    `Today Moldova is close to the peaceful solution of the Transnistrian
    conflict whenever it was', said President Vladimir Voronin at the XV
    meeting of Central European leaders in Ohrid, Macedonia on May 6. `My
    country is looking forward for the sustainable solution of this
    conflict only within the `5+2' format and it can be an example of
    peaceful solution of frozen conflict within the independence,
    sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country'. Moldovan
    foreign minister Andrei Stratan shared the president's optimism.
    `Moldova believes in the solution of Transnistrian conflict by the end
    of the year'. It is clear that EU leads the peace process formally and
    the initiative comes from Russia. Russia is playing this role not for
    the first time. Russian Kozak plan, promoted by the Russian envoy
    Dmitriy Kozak was rejected by the Moldovan president just before its
    signing in 2003 and even Russian president Vladimir Putin returned
    home from the airport. Afterwards Russian-Moldovan relations worsened
    sharply and Russia banned import of Moldovan wines. Details of current
    peace plan are not clear as Kozak plan, but it is clear that essence
    in both documents was not changed. The question is that Moldovan
    refusal of NATO integration and GUAM membership and Russian guarantee
    for the Moldovan territorial integrity instead of presence of Russian
    troops in Transnistrian region. It means that Moldova receives back
    the Transnistrian region and enters to the Russian political orbit.

    In a word, Russia began to implement new tactic on the frozen
    conflicts after the Kosovo experience. Moscow is planning to control
    not the separatist region, but entire country. It is not new tactic in
    fact. When Moscow and Kiev disputed over the Black Sea fleet after
    USSR collapse, Russia curbed separatist mood of local Russian-speaking
    population and preferred to make Ukraine its political hostage instead
    it. It resulted with the Crimean autonomous status and turning of
    Sevastopol, the base of Black Sea fleet, into the special
    territorial-administrative unit. Now Russia tries to get second Serbia
    in the Eastern Europe at Moldova's cost.

    Transnistrian conflict was always evaluated as more prospective than
    other conflicts, because it has no ethnic character and there are no
    sharp confrontation between the sides and ethnic cleansing and the
    conflict resulted with killing of few number of peoples (1000
    people). Transnistrian is populated with the relative majority of
    Moldavians. Transnistrian cars and residents are frequently seen in
    the Chisinau, who travel to Europe with Moldovan passports. There is
    experience of peaceful solution of Gagauz conflict in 1995, which
    resulted with the autonomous status of Gagauzian Republic. Moldova has
    been the agrarian country since the Soviet period and Transnistria is
    a decisive region for the country because more than half of industrial
    capacity of the country was located in this region as a result of
    intentional policy of USSR. Uniting with Moldova opens for
    Transnistria prospects of EU integration from the enclave. EU leaders
    repeated for many times that EU would sponsor unification process in
    Moldova.

    Moldova faced difficult choice, though it can be a new precedent. Igor
    Smirnov, current President of Transnistria has presented draft
    agreement on cooperation and friendship between Moldova and
    Transnistria Moldavian Republic during the meeting in Bendery. The
    agreement covers equal status of the two sides, their bilateral
    sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in domestic
    affairs. The conflict can be solved within the framework of
    international legal norms and political-economical realities. Moldova
    should refuse inheritance over Transnistria. Moldova and Transnistria
    can become federative state basing on horizontal relations. Separatist
    leaders should take important posts in central authorities, Moldova
    should declare its neutralism, pay $1.5 billion-debt of Transdniestr
    to Gazprom and parties and people of separatist region should
    participate in parliamentarian elections in 2009.

    Current developments have reached to decisive stage: establishment of
    new Transnistria precedent or repetition of old Kozak experience will
    depend on directions of developments.
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