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  • New Developments in central Asia and Near East

    NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND NEAR EAST

    "Noravank" Foundation
    26 February 2009

    Sevak Sarukhanyan

    The beginning of 2009 was marked by the developments of political,
    military and economic character, which may cause some changes in the
    situation in Central Asia and Near East. The activation of
    implementation of `Nabucco' project, the new quality of collaboration
    between Turkey and Iran in the sphere of energetic, the decision of
    authorities of Kirgizstan to withdraw American military base from the
    country must be regarded as the most important ones.

    `Nabucco' and the accession of Turkey to the EU
    Turkey was one of the countries which suffered from the
    Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis most of all. Though the `Blue stream' gas
    pipeline directly connects Russian and Turkish gas systems and allows
    supplying Russian gas by that pipeline laid on the Black Sea seafloor
    directly to Turkey, but western Turkish provinces supply their gas
    demand by Russian gas, delivered through the territory of Bulgaria. The
    interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine caused the situation
    when the western regions of Turkey were deprived of Russian blue-sky
    fuel.

    Though Russian Gazprom, Turkish national oil company and `Botas' had
    solved the problem of the increase in the amount of gas pumped through
    the `Blue stream' and managed to solve the problem of the gas supply to

    the western regions of Turkey, Turkish authorities could use the
    Russian-Ukrainian discrepancies in order to forward their political and
    economic interests.

    On January 19 Turkish prime-minister R.T. Erdogan, who was in Brussels
    on the EU entry talks, cast a doubt on economic expediency of `Nabucco'
    and stated that his country was going to reconsider its approach to
    that project. He also mentioned that Turkey would not support the
    `Nabucco' project if Brussels did not reconsider its position on the
    demands of the liberalization of the energy sphere, which was connected
    with the issue of Turkey's accession to the EU. `If we reach a
    deadlock, then, naturally, we shall reconsider our position', - said
    Erdogan while speaking on the issues of `Nabucco' and the accession of
    Turkey to the EU.

    It should be mentioned that it is the first time that Turkey has spoken
    about the expediency of `Nabucco'. It is obvious that the position of
    that country on `Nabucco' project has not changed and it could not even
    change as the construction of the pipeline will be of great political
    and economic benefit for Turkey. The fact that Endogan put `Nabucco' in
    question can be regarded as the blackmail in order to boost the
    accession of Turkey to the EU, which became possible at the moment when
    Europe felt the unreliability of the gas pipeline going throu
    gh the
    territory of Ukraine on its own back.

    After Erdogan's critical statements in Brussels he entered into
    negotiations with the president of European Commission Borroso. After
    the high-level negotiations between Turkey and the EU Borroso said
    that, anyway, Turkey and the EU had reached the agreement on the issue
    of the construction of `Nabucco' pipeline. However, in Barruso's
    opinion there is no necessity to tie `Nabucco' with the accession of
    Turkey to the EU. At the same time he said that if Turkey helped Europe
    to diversify gas supply and to lessen their dependence on Russian fuel,
    this would have positive influence on public opinion in Europe, which
    have rather cautious relation to the prospect of big Muslim country's
    accession to the EU.

    On January 20 Barroso came forward with the suggestion to promote the
    work with Turkey in order it could join the EU as soon as possible. And
    this will promote to the magnitude of the European Union and `will
    enhance its energy security'.

    The January ended providing two more evidences of the enhancement of
    the positions of Ankara in the relation between Turkey and the EU.
    Firstly, the summit on the issues of the `Nabucco' pipeline
    construction on January 27 in Budapest once more came to prove the
    significance of Turkey for the energy and economic security of the EU
    and underlined the importance of=2
    0its membership to the EU. Secondly,
    the growing significance of Turkey for the EU, probably, let its
    prime-minister act aggressively (which is unacceptable for any European
    leader) with the president of Israel Sh. Peres. At the same time the
    behavior of the Turkish prime-minister was determined by another
    important factor: the Islamic administration of Turkey tries to present
    the interests of Muslim world. The latest developments, including the
    steps made in the direction of the accession of Iran to `Nabucco'
    project, show that the Turkish authorities also added some economic
    constituent to their policy.

    The stirring up of Iran in the regional energetic projects
    Recently Turkey especially has been trying to emphasize the role of
    Iran in the issue of Europe energy security. In his speech in the
    Center of European policy in Brussels Erdogan said that one could
    hardly supply the necessary amount of gas, i.e. 30 billion of cubic
    meters, to provide the work of `Nabucco' pipeline. According to Erdogan
    `Nabucco' can make sense in case if gas is pumped to Europe not only
    from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan but also from Iran. The
    talks on Turkish-Iranian energy collaboration began at the beginning of
    the year and this was caused by the visit of Ali Larijani, the
    spokesman of Iranian parliament, to Ankara. As a result the ministers
    of energetic of Turkey and Iran were given a commission=2
    0to stir up the
    negotiations on the intensification of collaboration and implementation
    of joint programmes in the sphere of gas. The pipeline Erzurum `
    Tabriz, built as back as 2001, creates rather good background for the
    accession of Iran to `Nabucco'. This pipeline supplied Turkey on
    average with 8 billion cubic meters of gas annually; meanwhile, the
    capability of that pipeline allows supplying three times as much gas.

    After the developments which took place in South Caucasus in August,
    when it became clear that Georgia was not reliable as a transit
    country, the possibility that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will join the
    South Caucasian pipeline has sharply lowered. Today Azerbaijan, in
    fact, is the only Caspian country ready to take part in `Nabucco'
    project not only on paper but also practically. Neither Turkmenistan,
    nor Kazakhstan has made any practical step to become a part of that
    project and they would hardly do. Under such conditions Ankara realizes
    that in order to implement the `Nabucco' project and to get necessary
    financial and political dividends they need to include Iran, which has
    rather vast gas resources, in that project. There is such an approach
    in Europe too, on the level of political and economic actors. On the
    summit in Budapest the necessity of developing of cooperation with Iran
    was also stated by the executives of the companies, which are involved
    in the
    implementation of `Nabucco' pipeline, including the author of
    the project and one of the main lobbyists the vice-president of
    Austrian `OMV Gas & Power GmbH' company G. Bogart.

    The main difficulties, which may emerge owing to the accession of Iran
    to the `Nabucco', are conditioned by the position of Washington as the
    new administration of the US, in spite of the different analysis, has
    not elaborated and presented its own `Iranian policy' yet. However,
    today there are rather good grounds for the improvement of the
    relations between Iran and America, especially, if we take into
    consideration those difficulties, which will arise after the withdrawal
    of their military base from `Manas' in Kirgizstan. This will bring to
    the shift of the power and will directly influence the relations
    between Iran and the US.

    Developments in Central Asia
    The decision of the authorities of Kirgizstan to remove troops from the
    territory of their country brings the situation in the region back to
    2001 when the US had no military presence in Central Asia. When in 2001
    Washington after the agreement with Moscow opened military bases in
    Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, the main aim of the US was to implement
    military actions in Afghanistan. After the fall of Taliban regime the
    military bases were not withdrawn from the region, though there was an
    impression that the Afghani problem was solved and20there was no
    necessity to keep those bases. The Russian-American discrepancies
    concerning those military bases, (those discrepancies were called by
    Russian analyst F. Lukyanov `war of nerves') disappeared in February
    2009 when Kirgiz authorities under the obvious pressure of Russia and
    on the assumption of compensation made a decision to close `Manas' Air
    Force base. This is a very important decision of strategic character,
    which is the evidence of the consolidation of Russian positions in the
    region. Unlike 2003 when the Pentagon produced different fabricated
    reasons in order to preserve its military presence in Uzbekistan and
    Kirgizstan, the situation is quite different today; the military
    presence in Central Asia is of vital importance for Washington as the
    situation in Afghanistan recently has really become tense and
    dangerous. And under such circumstances Kirgizstan, and in fact Russia,
    make the US withdraw from the region.

    How is the US going to solve the problem of reinforcement, supply and
    support of their troops when they have lost their bases in Central Asia
    and when Pakistan becomes even more dangerous transition area for the
    Americans? The news that Washington tries to offer Tajikistan to open
    air force base on its territory comes to prove the slackening of the US
    positions and the entanglement of the situation. Tajikistan is not only
    the ally of Russia, it is also a country, which has close t
    ights and
    broad cooperation with Iran, and there are many Islamists and radicals
    fraught with hatred towards the US. It is obvious that if Washington
    cannot make terms with Russia concerning the military base in
    Tajikistan, then it needs at least to carry out the consent of Tehran.
    Iran until recent times has great resources to escalate the situation
    in Tajikistan, which is at civil war now, and it is out of question
    that there cannot be any American military presence without the consent
    of Iran.

    This is really a very important factor that can boost the dialogue
    between the US and Iran. It can start not now but in several months
    when Iran embarks on a new stage of presidential relations.

    However, the beginning of 2009 initiates serious changes in regional
    military and political developments, which may also cause the change of
    general situation and the shift of powers.

    Other issues of author

    DEVELOPMENTS IN DOMESTIC POLICY OF IRAN [29.01.2009]
    ON IRAN-US PERSPECTIVE OF RELATIONS [24.11.2008]
    NEW IRAN-WEST DEVELOPMENTS [30.10.2008]
    ENERGY FACTOR IN SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LATEST
    DEVELOPMENTS [25.09.2008]
    IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS [03.07.2008]
    ENTRANCE OF THE IRANIAN GAS INTO EUROPE [17.04.2008]
    NEW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM [31.03.2008]
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