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BAKU: Azeri Public In Breathless Expectation Of Outcome Of Turkish-A

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  • BAKU: Azeri Public In Breathless Expectation Of Outcome Of Turkish-A

    AZERI PUBLIC IN BREATHLESS EXPECTATION OF OUTCOME OF TURKISH-ARMENIAN DIALOGUE

    Turan News Agency
    March 24 2009
    Azerbaijan

    The Azerbaijani public in general, politicians and the media separately
    are trying to second-guess the outcome of the Turkish-Armenian
    dialogue, a piece produced by Azerbaijani think-tank group has
    concluded. Against the background of opportune geopolitical situation,
    the government of Erdogan set to take advantage of the situation
    emerged in the Caucasus after the Russian-Georgian August war,
    step up its role and subsequently settle down problems with Armenia
    to clear obstacles along the way to the European Union, the article
    said. Under the report, Turkey seems agreed to this move with Russia
    although the initiative put forward previously by other leaders failed
    as they were not backed by the key regional players. The following
    is the text of analytical report by private Azerbaijani news agency
    Turan on 24 March headlined "A proposal hard to reject"; subheadings
    have been inserted editorially:

    Turkey's geopolitical and diplomatic role has begun to grow in the
    region since about the second half of last year which, in its turn,
    became a reason for all-possible gossips.

    Caucasus alliance

    As is known, on 11 August 2008 following the Russian intervention in
    Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan spoke about the possibility of
    forming a Caucasus alliance. Two days later, he voiced this idea on a
    visit to Moscow. And on 20 August Turkey proposed a Caucasus Stability
    and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). As was stated, "first of all, the
    platform has geopolitical grounds, pursues an aim of establishing
    peace and security in the region, and secures economic cooperation
    and energy security". The work on the realization of the CSCP allowed
    Turkey to further step up "shuttle" diplomacy and political presence in
    the region. Subsequently, there came a turn of a "football diplomacy"
    when in defiance of the expectations, the Turkish president accepted
    the invitation of the new Armenian president to watch a qualifying
    game between the two countries' national football teams in Yerevan.

    This meeting has given an impetus to the resumption of the active
    Turkish-Armenian dialogue in the course of which the prospect of
    settling many disputed problems, including the issue of opening the
    borders between the two countries, are being discussed in earnest. To
    say that those active and uncommon initiatives of Turkey were
    interpreted ambiguously by the Azerbaijani public would mean nothing
    to say. Thus, a part of the public believes that playing with Russia
    and Armenia, the government of Erdogan is gradually distancing itself
    from the West (the USA) by indirectly betraying Azerbaijan's interests.

    Similar moods were heated up by some reports carried by the
    Turkish media. Sabah newspaper controlled by the son-in-law of the
    Turkish prime minister, reported on 13 March that as a result of
    secret Armenian-Turkish talks an agreement was hammered out on the
    establishment of diplomatic relations, appointment of ambassadors
    and setting up a joint commission for the purpose of normalization of
    mutual relations, the conduct of investigation into the 1915 events,
    discussion of issues of territorial claims of Armenia to Turkey,
    the opening of borders and beginning of trade relations.

    Under the same report, information on this agreement would be made
    public after 24 April. The similar information was also carried
    by Star newspaper close to the government circles. The concern
    of the Azerbaijani public is understandable though unreasonably
    overstated. So in comment on the agitating reports of the Turkish
    newspapers, the Turkish ambassador to Azerbaijan Hulusi Kilic said on
    18 March that "statements on the opening of borders are heard only in
    the media. Turkey's policy about Azerbaijan remains unchanged." Similar
    statements were also made by other Turkish officials.

    Nothing new in Erdogan's initiative

    Feverish reactions of a series of our media outlets to the CSCP are
    also surprising. The idea of CSCP initiated by Erdogan is not new. At
    one time, the late former presidents of Georgia and Ichkeria, Zviad
    Gamsakhurdia, and Dzhokhar Dudayev, initiated the idea of establishing
    A Caucasus Home which would unite the Caucasus peoples.

    In 1992, they even set up a confederation of the Caucasus peoples
    where Georgia, Azerbaijan and a series of movements from the North
    Caucasus joined. After several years, the next president of Chechnya,
    Aslan Maskhadov, and another Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
    discussed the issue of establishing an organization on security
    and cooperation in the Caucasus. Discussed was also the issue of
    establishing a Caucasus parliament a structure to unite the South
    Caucasus region and republics of the North Caucasus. In 1996 during a
    visit of the Azerbaijani former president, Heydar Aliyev, to Georgia,
    a Tbilisi declaration was signed where there was also talk on the
    Caucasus Home under the South Caucasus.

    On 15 January 2000 in Tbilisi [the former] Turkish President
    Suleyman Demirel put forward a pact on stability in the South
    Caucasus. However, as distinct from previous projects, the plan
    of Demirel was geographically broad it enveloped not also the South
    Caucasus but also the Black Sea basin with the exit to the Balkans and
    should have been realized under the aegis of the OSCE. With similar
    integration-related projects for the Caucasus in the various versions
    came forward earlier the USA, Russia and the EU countries. In previous
    years, this idea did not cause a surge of emotions and rejection in
    our society. Apparently, at that time, no-one did believe in its quick
    implementation. It looked definitely unpersuasive since other than
    Azerbaijan and Georgia, all other countries of the region had very
    fundamental contradictions between themselves. Nevertheless, after
    the August 2008 events in the South Caucasus there emerged a certain
    vacuum. On the one hand, by recognizing independence of Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia, Moscow certainly weakened tangibly the position
    of the USA. However, on the other hand, with these acts, it also
    significantly complicated own claims to the role of a peace-keeper,
    guarantor and arbiter. The "geopolitical breaches" that have emerged
    in the region allowed Turkey to develop unprecedented activity which
    technically met interests of both the West and Russia. Damaging own
    image, Russia made attempts to acquire at least temporary allies in
    confrontation with the West (the USA).

    Moves designed to step up Turkey's role in Caucasus

    Under the existing situation, such an ally for Russia could only
    be Turkey. Being from "the western camp", at the same time, it has
    certain "resentment" at own allies. Moreover, Turkey depends on
    Russian gas supplies and has a solid goods turnover (34bn dollars)
    with it. At the same time, Turkey with its activity could neutralize
    undesirable for Russia geopolitical influence of other players on the
    South Caucasus. Probably, all these were understood well in Ankara and
    possibly exactly, these considerations made Erdogan to reanimate the
    idea of integration into the South Caucasus. And it is not surprising
    that Moscow supported this project within which there was not any
    hint at other players apart from the South Caucasus, Turkey and Russia.

    In a nutshell, the August proposal of Erdogan was not at all
    spontaneous, it had own prehistory and evolved in the course of
    development of events and it goes without saying has own aims. The most
    important of them for Turkey is to reinforce its role in the region. It
    is also clear that the task of the West in the South Caucasus is
    to tear Armenia off Russia. It is obvious that the opening of the
    Turkish-Armenian borders serves simultaneously the strengthening of
    Turkey's role and reducing the level of confrontation in the region (by
    significantly facilitating the realization of the West's plans). Such
    a role of Turkey, to all appearances, is absolutely acceptable for
    the West (the USA). To this testifies the fact that US Secretary of
    State Hillary Clinton paid an official visit to Turkey on 7 March
    during which she was received by the president, prime minister and
    foreign minister of the country.

    The media characterized this visit as a "repairing move" (relations
    between Ankara and Washington were fairly spoiled by the Bush
    administration). It is noteworthy that after Hillary Clinton, new US
    President Barack Obama is planning to visit Turkey in April. Another
    target of Turkey is to end once and for all the boring problem of
    recognition of mythic "genocide" of Armenians in the Ottoman empire. It
    should be acknowledged there has cropped up a serious argument for
    Turkey: recognition of the genocide may once and for all spoil mutual
    relations between Ankara and Washington and bring to a standstill for a
    long time the process of normalization of relations with Yerevan. The
    latter is one of the conditions for Turkey to be accepted to the
    European Union and therefore, the establishment of friendly relations
    with Armenia will actually remove a threat of recognizing the genocide.

    The realization of all these tasks will undoubtedly lead to
    reinforcement of Turkey's influence in the region and expand
    its potential in the resolution of the existing conflicts in the
    region. Exactly for this Turkey is currently doing everything in order
    to reinforce its position in the South Caucasus. Yerevan also perceived
    Erdogan's initiative positively. No doubt that this step is important
    for the Armenian authorities from a point of view of possibility of
    joining regional energy projects. Thereby, official Yerevan cuts the
    ground from under pro-Western electorate of the country with former
    president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and multiplies its possibilities for
    political manoeuvring. During an official visit of Erdogan to Baku
    on 20 August, President Ilham Aliyev also backed the initiative
    of the Turkish side. Probably, the Azerbaijani leadership fairly
    decided that if the aim of Moscow is to retain under its influence
    the South Caucasus with the help of the conflicts, then the breaking
    this monopoly and Turkey's involvement in the affairs of the region
    opens for Baku more positive prospects.

    Briefly, by initiating the CSCP and stepping up peace-keeping
    activities in the region, Turkey, in essence has made a proposal,
    from which it is hard for all countries to refuse. Time will show to
    what extent this "proposal" meets Azerbaijan's interests.
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