Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Turkey's Local Elections Forces Reconsideration Of Domestic And Fore

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Turkey's Local Elections Forces Reconsideration Of Domestic And Fore

    TURKEY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS FORCES RECONSIDERATION OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES
    Saban Kardas

    Jamestown Foundation
    April 1 2009

    The mixed results of the Turkish local elections on March 29 raised
    questions over the future direction of the governing Justice and
    Development Party's (AKP) policies (EDM, March 31). The government
    is unlikely to call a snap election, but the relative decline in the
    AKP's share of the vote will have significant implications for Turkey's
    political landscape, compelling more recognition of public opinion
    and limiting the scope for assertive domestic and foreign policies.

    Turkey's local elections directly affect national politics, and have
    been traditionally considered as a de facto vote of confidence for
    the incumbent government. Moreover, prior to the March 29 elections,
    the AKP pursued an aggressive campaign, which effectively turned
    the local elections into a national referendum on its policies (EDM,
    December 3). Now, having fallen below the thresholds it set for itself,
    the AKP is seeking to redefine its priorities in Turkish politics.

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened meetings with his cabinet
    ministers and party members to assess the causes of the decline, while
    considering a cabinet reshuffle and other changes within the party
    (Star, March 31). Beyond these short term changes, the elections are
    likely to have an enduring resonance on the AKP's domestic and foreign
    policies. Though it remains to be seen what path it will choose,
    there appears to be two alternatives: either the AKP will follow a
    reformist line and initiate major change, or it will prefer prudence
    and avoid proactive policies.

    The AKP's core supporters, conservative center-right voters and
    liberals, expect the government to abandon its complacency, and resume
    domestic reforms. The EU and western observers also share similar
    views. They believe that the AKP owes its past electoral success to
    the pro-democratization agenda, which it adopted at the outset. For
    them, the AKP's recovery depends on its ability to revive its former
    reformist image. If the AKP chooses this alternative, it will have
    to refocus on constitutional changes, and intensify the EU membership
    process in order to satisfy the reformists' demands (Sabah, March 30).

    Reformists also want the AKP to pursue a more proactive foreign
    policy. Many observers had argued that following the local elections,
    the government would press ahead with ambitious foreign policy
    initiatives, including normalizing its relations with Armenia. EU
    officials have suggested Turkey might take further steps in this
    process, such as opening the border with Armenia following President
    Barack Obama's visit to Turkey on April 6-7 (Hurriyet, March 30).

    It is unclear whether the AKP can fufil these expectations. The AKP
    was founded as a party representing diverse interests, and, since
    its establishment, Erdogan's charismatic leadership has united the
    various factions within the party. The sense of over-confidence imbued
    by successive election victories and the presence of a strong leader,
    led the AKP to develop a top-down approach to politics. The party's
    largely unchallenged dominance enabled it to conduct domestic and
    foreign policies in an unrestricted manner.

    The new voting patterns, however, are a stark reminder to the
    AKP that the Turkish electorate is sensitive to the implications
    of the government's policies, and may withdraw their support when
    necessary. The pre-occupation with re-election in the next national
    elections, slated for 2011, will be the AKP's main concern. Equally,
    it will tread a fine line between satisfying the demands of its
    core constituencies and responding to the challenges posed by
    the opposition. Since the AKP cannot take its popular support for
    granted, it might be more circumspect in its domestic and foreign
    policies. These pressures, in turn, might curb the AKP's activism,
    and force it to adopt more conformist policies.

    The government will need to form broad based coalitions with opposition
    parties in order to implement its domestic reforms. However, having
    gained ground on the AKP, major opposition parties such as the
    Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP),
    have little incentive to cooperate with the government. Moreover,
    Erdogan's antagonistic attitude during the election campaign
    will complicate building coalitions with his rivals, who have
    already announced their opposition to his position on constitutional
    amendments (EDM, March 4). Against this background, relations between
    the government and the opposition are likely to remain tense, and it
    is questionable whether the AKP can deliver radical democratization
    reforms (Radikal, March 30).

    The AKP's leftist, nationalist, secularist and Islamist opponents
    are united in their objection to its foreign policy. They view the
    AKP's policies as a "betrayal of Turkey's national interests,"
    and they are critical of the AKP's policy of rapprochement with
    Armenia. Previously, the AKP largely ignored any negative public
    reaction and the opposition, in its efforts to normalize relations
    with Yerevan. However, now that the AKP is more vulnerable to public
    scrutiny, faced with pressure from a stronger opposition, it may
    adopt a cautious approach and avoid foreign policy risks. Therefore,
    although normalizing relations with Armenia will continue, it may
    be premature to expect radical steps, such as opening the border or
    establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia (ANKA, March 30).
Working...
X