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Is The Armenian-Turkish Rapprochement In Jeopardy?

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  • Is The Armenian-Turkish Rapprochement In Jeopardy?

    IS THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH RAPPROCHEMENT IN JEOPARDY?
    by Liz Fuller

    Radio Free Europe
    August 3, 2009

    Over the past month, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian has expressed
    frustration on three separate occasions that the Turkish government
    is apparently backpedaling with regard to its April commitment to
    seek ways to

    "normalize" bilateral relations without preconditions. Turkey's
    response to those statements has been cautiously muted.

    Sarkisian first publicly called for unconditional rapprochement between
    Turkey and Armenia over a year before his election as president in
    February 2008. In September 2008, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
    visited Yerevan at Sarkisian's invitation to watch a soccer match
    between the two countries' national teams.

    Then in April, following months of Swiss-mediated talks, it was
    announced that the two sides had agreed on a "road map" intended to
    lead to the establishment of formal bilateral relations and to the
    opening of their common border.

    The first unconfirmed reports of that impending announcement surfaced
    in late March and triggered outrage in Azerbaijan, whose leadership
    had for years argued that any formal agreement by Turkey on closer
    relations with Armenia should be contingent on key concessions by the
    latter on the terms for a solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    On June 16, Turkey's Ambassador to Azerbaijan Hulusi Kilic told
    Azerbaijan's APA news agency that no steps had been taken to implement
    measures outlined in the road map. "Nothing is being done. Nothing
    has changed," he was quoted as saying. Commenting on July 21 on
    the apparent stalemate, Richard Giragosian, who heads the Armenian
    Center for National and International Studies, made the point that
    "Turkey is surprised: it underestimated the reaction of Azerbaijan
    and overestimated its own leverage."

    The lack of progress in implementing the road map, in conjunction
    with increasing opposition criticism of the most recent draft of
    the so-called Madrid Principles for resolving the Karabakh conflict,
    clearly irks Sarkisian. Speaking in Yerevan on July 6 following talks
    with visiting Cypriot President Demetris Christofias, Sarkisian said,
    "we want to eliminate closed borders remaining in Europe and to build
    normal relationships without preconditions. But in that endeavor,
    we do not intend to allow [anyone] to use the negotiating process
    for misleading the international community."

    Three weeks later, on July 28, Sarkisian implied that he might refrain
    from traveling to Turkey in October as planned to watch the return
    soccer match unless Ankara takes "constructive steps" to "create a
    proper environment" for that visit. "I will leave for Turkey if we
    have an open border [by then] or stand on the brink of the lifting
    of the blockade of Armenia," Sarkisian said.

    Then on July 30, at a meeting with young diaspora Armenians, Sarkisian
    explicitly rejected attempts to link the desired normalization of
    Armenian-Turkish relations to progress in resolving the Karabakh
    conflict. Sarkisian recalled that Armenia had "found the strength"
    to extend a hand in friendship to Turkey despite the legacy of
    the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. He said that
    "Armenia and Turkey have been conducting negotiations for a whole
    year, we have reached agreement on two documents, but now certain
    Turkish political forces are trying to put forward preconditions and
    link the establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia to the
    Karabakh conflict and to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations."

    Sarkisian acknowledged that Turkey is a large and influential
    country. But he warned at the same time that "we Armenians are
    an independent nation, and it is inadmissible to talk to us in
    the language of preconditions. Any tough step brings about a
    counterreaction." He did not elaborate.

    Some Turkish commentators have suggested that such statements by
    Sarkisian could jeopardize the rapprochement process. But Turkish
    Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu took a softer position, saying
    that the "cold war" in bilateral relations is over and that the two
    countries no longer regard each other as enemies. Davutoglu said he
    considers it unlikely that Sarkisian will cancel his plans to visit
    Turkey in October.
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