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THE SITUATION IS NOT AS DESPERATE AS BEFORE: RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT
Today.Az
17 August 2009 [16:54]
Editor-in-chief of "Russia in global policy" magazine and political
expert Fedor Lukyanov spoke in an exclusive interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: What are your comments on the fact that numerous meeting
between Azerbaijani and Armenian president have not ended with signing
significant documents despite official statements and opinion of
experts who says that light at the end of the tunnel of conflict
settlement is already visible?
Fedor Lukyanov: Although the light at the end of the tunnel is
seen, the tunnel is very long. The parties have not even reached
middle of the tunnel. I favor the view that any settlement of the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict will be possible when there will be
changes for better not only in relation to the Karabakh conflict,
but also other conflicts in the entire region.
The attempt which was made last year to defrost relations between
Armenia and Turkey have not yielded any results and, in general,
all became stalled. The reason is not only a demarche by Azerbaijan,
but also a large number of problems between Armenia and Turkey, the
start of resolution of which is easy to declare, but really it is
very difficult to solve them. As a result, players of regional policy,
not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also others, just are not ready
for serious changes. In my opinion, absolute absence of relations
between Russia and Georgia has its negative role in this regard. Of
course, this is not directly linked, but the whole regional atmosphere
is unnatural.
The tunnel, along which Armenia and Azerbaijan are stepping, is part
of a larger tunnel along which the whole region moves. I think that
now the situation is not as desperate as before, but this is only
sparkle, glimmer of light is at the end of the tunnel.
Q: What impact does the economic crisis have on former USSR states?
A: Undoubtedly, the crisis has severely hit many countries around the
world, especially former Soviet republics. Those who lacked a financial
cushion as Russia and Azerbaijan suffered most of all. Moreover, Russia
found itself in a potentially very profitable situation as a number
of post-Soviet countries are in dire need of financial assistance
and asked for money even from those countries whose relations with
Russia can not be described as brilliant.
This was to allow Russia to build closer relations with these
countries, but it did not work. We see that countries that are in
difficult circumstances and even on economic dependence on Russia,
such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia behave very independently. But
Armenia is dependent to a lesser extent and its relations with Russia
more even.
On the other hand, those countries do not have other sources of
support. China is highly reluctant to provide assistance excluding
the cases solely on the basis of its own advantage. But the EU is
ready to extend the hand of political support, but the hand does not
contain abundant financial piece.
Q: What is the state of affairs around the question of the possible
use of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan by Russia and the United
States? How seriously was this issue discussed during Barack Obama's
visit to Moscow?
A: I think this issue was not discussed during Obama's visit
to Moscow. The parties did not debate the issue of missile
defense. According to a memorandum signed by the parties, Washington
and Moscow have found a temporary solution which calls for delayed
final decision. This is the minimum compromise which suits both
parties.
The question of missile defense will be key at the next stage when will
the new START treatya will be signed because once it is not resolved,
there will be no changes in further weapon reductions.
Nevertheless, I think that at the expert level Vladimir Putin has
idea of use of radar in Gabala and Armavir radar. Moreover, I have
heard from senior American politicians that the idea of Putin sparked
their interest to the discussion. Incidentally, it is widely believed
in the United States that the Bush administration has been wrong,
in fact, abandoning the use of radar data.
So I think that the possibility of creating a joint missile defense
system with inclusion of the Gabala radar station is real, but this
issue is very delicate and will depend on whether positive momentum
in relations between the United States will appear.
Today.Az
17 August 2009 [16:54]
Editor-in-chief of "Russia in global policy" magazine and political
expert Fedor Lukyanov spoke in an exclusive interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: What are your comments on the fact that numerous meeting
between Azerbaijani and Armenian president have not ended with signing
significant documents despite official statements and opinion of
experts who says that light at the end of the tunnel of conflict
settlement is already visible?
Fedor Lukyanov: Although the light at the end of the tunnel is
seen, the tunnel is very long. The parties have not even reached
middle of the tunnel. I favor the view that any settlement of the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict will be possible when there will be
changes for better not only in relation to the Karabakh conflict,
but also other conflicts in the entire region.
The attempt which was made last year to defrost relations between
Armenia and Turkey have not yielded any results and, in general,
all became stalled. The reason is not only a demarche by Azerbaijan,
but also a large number of problems between Armenia and Turkey, the
start of resolution of which is easy to declare, but really it is
very difficult to solve them. As a result, players of regional policy,
not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also others, just are not ready
for serious changes. In my opinion, absolute absence of relations
between Russia and Georgia has its negative role in this regard. Of
course, this is not directly linked, but the whole regional atmosphere
is unnatural.
The tunnel, along which Armenia and Azerbaijan are stepping, is part
of a larger tunnel along which the whole region moves. I think that
now the situation is not as desperate as before, but this is only
sparkle, glimmer of light is at the end of the tunnel.
Q: What impact does the economic crisis have on former USSR states?
A: Undoubtedly, the crisis has severely hit many countries around the
world, especially former Soviet republics. Those who lacked a financial
cushion as Russia and Azerbaijan suffered most of all. Moreover, Russia
found itself in a potentially very profitable situation as a number
of post-Soviet countries are in dire need of financial assistance
and asked for money even from those countries whose relations with
Russia can not be described as brilliant.
This was to allow Russia to build closer relations with these
countries, but it did not work. We see that countries that are in
difficult circumstances and even on economic dependence on Russia,
such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia behave very independently. But
Armenia is dependent to a lesser extent and its relations with Russia
more even.
On the other hand, those countries do not have other sources of
support. China is highly reluctant to provide assistance excluding
the cases solely on the basis of its own advantage. But the EU is
ready to extend the hand of political support, but the hand does not
contain abundant financial piece.
Q: What is the state of affairs around the question of the possible
use of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan by Russia and the United
States? How seriously was this issue discussed during Barack Obama's
visit to Moscow?
A: I think this issue was not discussed during Obama's visit
to Moscow. The parties did not debate the issue of missile
defense. According to a memorandum signed by the parties, Washington
and Moscow have found a temporary solution which calls for delayed
final decision. This is the minimum compromise which suits both
parties.
The question of missile defense will be key at the next stage when will
the new START treatya will be signed because once it is not resolved,
there will be no changes in further weapon reductions.
Nevertheless, I think that at the expert level Vladimir Putin has
idea of use of radar in Gabala and Armavir radar. Moreover, I have
heard from senior American politicians that the idea of Putin sparked
their interest to the discussion. Incidentally, it is widely believed
in the United States that the Bush administration has been wrong,
in fact, abandoning the use of radar data.
So I think that the possibility of creating a joint missile defense
system with inclusion of the Gabala radar station is real, but this
issue is very delicate and will depend on whether positive momentum
in relations between the United States will appear.