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CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009

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  • CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009

    International Crisis Group
    Nov 1 2009


    CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009
    CrisisWatch N°75
    1 November 2009

    Three actual or potential conflict situations around the world
    deteriorated and four improved in October 2009, according to the new
    issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin
    CrisisWatch, released today.

    In Pakistan, a military ground operation against Taliban strongholds
    in South Waziristan triggered a new wave of displacement and was
    surrounded by a brutal escalation in militant attacks across the
    country. At least 200,000 have been forced to flee fighting in the
    northwest region amid reports the military is impeding humanitarian
    access. Attacks elsewhere left hundreds dead, with over 100 killed in
    bombings targeting a market in Peshawar on 28 October.

    In Iraq, over 150 were killed when several massive explosions struck
    government buildings in heavily-guarded central Baghdad for the second
    time in three months. Progress towards national elections scheduled
    for January 2010 also faltered, as parliamentarians failed to reach
    agreement on a crucial electoral law. The situation also deteriorated
    in Zimbabwe, as Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai disengaged from the
    unity government to protest stalled implementation of September 2008's
    power-sharing deal. While Tsvangirai has stopped short of withdrawing
    from the government, the move has underscored risks attendant to the
    current political impasse between the power-sharing partners.

    Hopes for peace in Nigeria's Niger Delta increased, as thousands of
    militants laid down arms in response to the government's three-month
    amnesty program and the dominant militant group MEND announced a new
    indefinite ceasefire. Whilst these are significant steps forward,
    concerns for stability in the region remain, including the
    government's capacity to deliver reintegration programs and prospects
    for much-needed development.

    In Honduras, a late month deal between the de facto government and
    ousted President Zelaya increased chances for an end to the political
    crisis that has gripped the country since the 28 June coup. The deal
    awaits approval by the country's Supreme Court and Congress, and would
    see Zelaya reinstated as president under an interim power-sharing
    government. A new peace agreement between Tuareg rebels and the
    government in Mali consolidated progress towards an end to the
    long-running conflict in the north and resulted in agreement from
    elusive rebel leader Ibrahim Ag Bahanga to disarm.

    Armenia and Turkey took a further step towards normalizing relations,
    following the signing of draft protocols on 10 October restoring
    diplomatic ties and opening their common border. Both parliaments now
    need to ratify the accord, and Crisis Group identifies the situation
    as a conflict resolution opportunity.

    Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk alert for Afghanistan, as the
    country heads towards a crucial second-round run-off scheduled for 7
    November following highly flawed presidential polls in August.
    Political uncertainty increased considerably as CrisisWatch went to
    press, as incumbent president Hamid Karzai's opponent Abdullah
    Abdullah withdrew from the race over risks of electoral malpractice. A
    second disputed election risks further eroding confidence in
    Afghanistan's electoral process and strengthening the hand of Taliban
    insurgents. Urgent action is required to ensure accountability for
    electoral fraud during the first round and to push forward key
    governance reforms.

    October 2009 TRENDS

    Deteriorated Situations
    Iraq, Pakistan, Zimbabwe

    Improved Situations
    Armenia/Turkey, Honduras, Mali, Nigeria

    Unchanged Situations
    Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bahrain,
    Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi,
    Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China
    (internal), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of
    Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia,
    Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir),
    Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories,
    Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Macedonia,
    Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh
    (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya),
    Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi
    Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan
    Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan,
    Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen,
    Zimbabwe


    November 2009 OUTLOOK


    Conflict Risk Alert
    Afghanistan

    Conflict Resolution Opportunity
    Armenia/Turkey

    *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk
    alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to
    reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month,
    not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk
    alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is
    expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given
    only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

    Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the
    CrisisWatch database.

    http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.c fm?id=6372&l=1

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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