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KARABAKH CONFLICT ISSUES
The Messenger
Nov 25 2009
Georgia
Polish political analyst on Caucasus issues Maciej Falkowski has stated
that recently an intensification of efforts to resolve the Karabalkh
conflict and Russian and Turkish diplomacy in this area have been
observed. However it is premature to talk about some breakthrough in
this process.
Falkowski thinks that in the near future a document regulating certain
aspects of the conflict might appear, but not a complex solution
because the parties are not ready for one. The analyst thinks that
the Armenian elite is not ready to accept the return of the occupied
territories to Azerbaijan. They see this suggestion as treason and
believe it could lead to a coup d'etat.
The Polish analyst thinks that despite some coordination between
Turkish and Russian attempts to ensure the opening of the border
between Turkey and Armenia and Russia's position as a guarantor of
peace in Karabakh, the two states still do not trust each other. There
is no Turkish-Russian tandem, thinks Falkowski, because Russia does
not want Turkey to play the decisive role in conflict resolution.
The analyst thinks that this conflict will not be resolved soon
because there are conflicts of interest between Russia and the
USA in the region and neither wants to retreat. He suggests two
possible solutions to it. The first is Azerbaijan regaining the
Armenian-occupied territories, including Karabakh, by force, an option
he considers unlikely as Azerbaijan is afraid of Russia's reaction.
The second is one of the big states in the region deciding to
resolve the conflict unilaterally, but Falkowski thinks this is
also unrealistic.
Falkowski suggests that attempts to resolve the conflict are being
hampered by the distrust of the Armenian and Azeri people, and neither
of the Governments of these countries wants to ignore this mistrust.
The leaderships of both countries need the Karabkh conflict to keep
their people under control, to serve their private interests, as
they can justify banning demonstrations or arresting people by the
threat of war in Karabakh. When there were opposition rallies in
Yerevan the Armenian side started shooting in the Karabakh region,
thus showing the opposition and people that there was a threat of
further fighting and therefore the rallies should stop.
Falkowski gives the pessimistic prognosis that there are no prospects
for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict at all at the present time.
The Messenger
Nov 25 2009
Georgia
Polish political analyst on Caucasus issues Maciej Falkowski has stated
that recently an intensification of efforts to resolve the Karabalkh
conflict and Russian and Turkish diplomacy in this area have been
observed. However it is premature to talk about some breakthrough in
this process.
Falkowski thinks that in the near future a document regulating certain
aspects of the conflict might appear, but not a complex solution
because the parties are not ready for one. The analyst thinks that
the Armenian elite is not ready to accept the return of the occupied
territories to Azerbaijan. They see this suggestion as treason and
believe it could lead to a coup d'etat.
The Polish analyst thinks that despite some coordination between
Turkish and Russian attempts to ensure the opening of the border
between Turkey and Armenia and Russia's position as a guarantor of
peace in Karabakh, the two states still do not trust each other. There
is no Turkish-Russian tandem, thinks Falkowski, because Russia does
not want Turkey to play the decisive role in conflict resolution.
The analyst thinks that this conflict will not be resolved soon
because there are conflicts of interest between Russia and the
USA in the region and neither wants to retreat. He suggests two
possible solutions to it. The first is Azerbaijan regaining the
Armenian-occupied territories, including Karabakh, by force, an option
he considers unlikely as Azerbaijan is afraid of Russia's reaction.
The second is one of the big states in the region deciding to
resolve the conflict unilaterally, but Falkowski thinks this is
also unrealistic.
Falkowski suggests that attempts to resolve the conflict are being
hampered by the distrust of the Armenian and Azeri people, and neither
of the Governments of these countries wants to ignore this mistrust.
The leaderships of both countries need the Karabkh conflict to keep
their people under control, to serve their private interests, as
they can justify banning demonstrations or arresting people by the
threat of war in Karabakh. When there were opposition rallies in
Yerevan the Armenian side started shooting in the Karabakh region,
thus showing the opposition and people that there was a threat of
further fighting and therefore the rallies should stop.
Falkowski gives the pessimistic prognosis that there are no prospects
for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict at all at the present time.