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Turkey Facing A Choice Or A Stalemate?

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  • Turkey Facing A Choice Or A Stalemate?

    TURKEY FACING A CHOICE OR A STALEMATE?
    Karine Ter-Sahakyan

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/
    02.02.2010 GMT+04:00

    Currently Ankara does not look back at the USA and may at any moment
    cease to be its true strategic ally, especially since there is almost
    a replacement in the form of Russia.

    Normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, as well as settlement
    of the Karabakh conflict reached a deadlock, and important role
    in this process played Azerbaijan, zigzagging from Turkey to Iran
    and backwards. Lack of national identity influenced the position of
    Caucasian Tatars in the region: on the one hand they are Shiahs and
    they must have a propensity for Iran, on the other hand they call
    themselves Turks, thus giving preference to Turkey.

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ The most interesting thing is that neither of the
    countries takes Baku seriously and they need her only as a means to
    strengthen their role of a regional power. By the way, this role is
    differently perceived by Tehran and Ankara: Turkey has dressed up in
    the clothes of a peacemaker, trying to reconcile the irreconcilable
    in words, while Iran is conducting a tougher policy. It is clearly
    expressed in the desire of the countries to participate in the Karabakh
    conflict settlement. Turkey's position is dependent on Azerbaijan,
    while Iran is more independent in this issue. But is Ankara really
    dependent on Baku? It is one thing to issue dramatic statements
    to one's audience, and another - the real intentions of Erdogan's
    government, for which ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols is
    more important than settlement of the conflict it is no relation with.

    However, it should be noted that declarations of Official Ankara on
    ratification of Protocols are once again motivated by strange reasons.

    What was the cost of the Turkish Foreign Ministry's demarche over
    the verdict of the Armenian Constitutional Court, incomprehensible
    for the world powers actively involved in the preparation and signing
    of the Protocols in Zurich? According to the Turkish daily Milliyet,
    following the statement by Turkish Foreign Ministry, Ankara seemed
    to be feeling diplomatically strong. "However, statements of Western
    diplomats proved that it is not so. None of the interested parties
    recognize the link between the Zurich protocols and the Karabakh
    issue. It was quite toughly and clearly told by Russian Foreign
    Minister Sergei Lavrov. The interested parties also agree with US
    Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, who assessed the RA
    Constitutional Court's decision as positive".

    And what can Prime Minister Erdogan do? Only accuse Armenia of breaking
    down the talks. This is not a new policy for Turkey; it has a history
    of more than 200 years and is periodically applied with smaller or
    greater success. But everything has an end, no matter how reluctant
    Ankara is to presently notice it, hoping that international community
    may once again go under Turkey's thumb. There is a grain of truth in
    this confidence, though there has been no precedent for this yet.

    Currently Ankara does not look back at the USA and may at any moment
    cease to be its true strategic ally, especially since there is almost
    a replacement in the form of Russia. The question is whether Moscow
    would like to play the very reprehensible role of advancing Turkey's
    interests in the region, especially taking into consideration the fact
    that the Great Turan will be passing precisely through the territory
    of Russia. Perhaps this is the reason why the U.S. is so active in
    ratification of the Protocols. However, both Moscow and Washington
    are well aware that Yerevan will take up no action until Ankara
    ratifies the Protocols. Roughly speaking, no pressure is exerted
    on Armenia yet, giving her an opportunity to sit and wait. By and
    large there is almost no leverage to use against Armenia: surrender
    of any territory or renunciation of international recognition of the
    Armenian Genocide is out of the question. And the U.S. can once again
    threaten to finally recognize the Armenian Genocide committed in the
    Ottoman Empire, especially since there is an excellent occasion -
    the 95th anniversary. In such cases no moral considerations are taken
    into account: in politics there is no room for sentimentality. And
    if the U.S. recognizes this fact, the chain reaction will go through
    the world, and it would be difficult for Turkey to object to anything
    both morally and materially. The fact that Armenia says she requires
    no compensation, changes nothing in international laws: the country
    responsible for genocide must pay compensation to the victims and
    their descendants. In any case, we must acknowledge that Turkey
    is playing with fire that could any moment burn down the State,
    so painstakingly built by Ataturk.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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