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ARMENIA MAY RATIFY PROTOCOLS WITHOUT TURKISH RATIFICATION - ARMENIAN EXPERT
Kamala Mammadova
news.az
Feb 19 2010
Azerbaijan
Manvel Sargsyan News.Az interviews Manvel Sargsyan, an expert at the
Armenian Centre of Strategic and National Studies.
How would you describe Armenian-Turkish relations today?
The initial inclination of Turkey and Armenia to use different
prerequisites and preconditions has created a complex situation in the
normalization of relations between these countries. In particular,
Turkey underestimated the interest of the superpowers in the rapid
normalization of relations with Armenia. By binding this process
to progress in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Turkey has,
in fact, intensified the process of international recognition of the
genocide by Western countries, in particular, the United States. In
addition, it has faced demands from the EU to withdraw its troops
from Northern Cyprus.
In fact, the claims set before the world community on Nagorno-Karabakh
caused claims to be made in response on Turkey. As a result, Turkey
is facing a difficult choice: either to continue setting prerequisites
to Armenia and facing pressure from the superpowers in response or to
give up on its prerequisites. Turkey seems not to have taken a final
decision yet. Armenia has no special problems with the conditions.
Parliament has started ratification of the protocols and it will
probably ratify them without their ratification by the Turkish
parliament.
Do you think the Armenian-Turkish border will open this year? May
Turkey improve ties with Armenia, ignoring Azerbaijan's interests?
The development of Armenian-Turkish relations is becoming more
dependent on the logic of the overall development of political
processes in the region and the world. Turkey's choice will be dictated
more by the influence of Turkish relations with the superpowers
than the impact of Azerbaijan's problems. If problems that outweigh
the problems of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations emerge inside and
around Turkey, Turkey will be obliged to take decisions that bypass
Azerbaijan's interest. We should take into account the fact that US
policy on Iran is leading to an extreme situation in the Middle East.
Certainly, all the countries of the region will have to voice their
attitude to this situation and take a stance. These positions will
affect Armenian-Turkish relations. In the end, the open border
between Turkey and Armenia is not just a reflection of the interests
of the two neighbouring countries. Its geopolitical meaning is also
transparent. Therefore, the opening of this border can be expected any
minute because the narrow interests of Armenia and Turkey do not play
the most decisive role here. The interests and predominant processes
in the region have changed too much, causing changes in the room for
freedom of manoeuvre of each country in the region.
Do you expect any progress in the Karabakh settlement in the near
future?
The state of diplomacy on the Karabakh conflict settlement is currently
unclear. Azerbaijan and Armenia have treated the proposals made by
Russia at the recent presidential meeting in Sochi differently. It
was suggested that the conflict parties present within two weeks their
proposals on issues of difference. Against this background, instead of
presenting its proposals the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has reported
that it agrees with the updated Madrid principles. Therefore, Russia's
proposal to introduce new paragraphs to the text has been rejected.
As opposed to this, the Armenian Foreign Ministry reported that it
would make its proposals and the negotiations would continue when
Azerbaijan proposed its position on the points of difference under the
Sochi agreements. It means that Armenia has supported Russia's new
initiatives. The threat of a split has emerged as a result of these
different approaches to the diplomatic process. It is clear that it
will be difficult to overcome the situation. The mediators' decision
seems to be crucial in overcoming the emerging difficulties. Yet,
there are no signs that the mediators have already expressed their
attitude to the situation. This means that another stage of stagnation
in negotiations is possible.
Do you think it realistic that Azerbaijanis and Armenians can live
together, if the conflict is settled?
Historically, there have been numerous conflicts between Armenians
and Azerbaijanis.
Peaceful life together has been restored only when mechanisms to curb
mutual claims have appeared. Anyway, both peoples should come to a
single scale for the assessment of justice. Every people understands
the concept of a "fair solution" differently. It is time to review the
current state of affairs and recognize each other's rights. Peaceful
life together is impossible or possible when peoples are suppressed
by third powers.
A similar situation existed in the Soviet period. This situation
does not ensure lasting peace. The conflicting people should learn
to conduct direct negotiations without any prerequisites, as it might
improve the climate of relations.
Kamala Mammadova
news.az
Feb 19 2010
Azerbaijan
Manvel Sargsyan News.Az interviews Manvel Sargsyan, an expert at the
Armenian Centre of Strategic and National Studies.
How would you describe Armenian-Turkish relations today?
The initial inclination of Turkey and Armenia to use different
prerequisites and preconditions has created a complex situation in the
normalization of relations between these countries. In particular,
Turkey underestimated the interest of the superpowers in the rapid
normalization of relations with Armenia. By binding this process
to progress in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Turkey has,
in fact, intensified the process of international recognition of the
genocide by Western countries, in particular, the United States. In
addition, it has faced demands from the EU to withdraw its troops
from Northern Cyprus.
In fact, the claims set before the world community on Nagorno-Karabakh
caused claims to be made in response on Turkey. As a result, Turkey
is facing a difficult choice: either to continue setting prerequisites
to Armenia and facing pressure from the superpowers in response or to
give up on its prerequisites. Turkey seems not to have taken a final
decision yet. Armenia has no special problems with the conditions.
Parliament has started ratification of the protocols and it will
probably ratify them without their ratification by the Turkish
parliament.
Do you think the Armenian-Turkish border will open this year? May
Turkey improve ties with Armenia, ignoring Azerbaijan's interests?
The development of Armenian-Turkish relations is becoming more
dependent on the logic of the overall development of political
processes in the region and the world. Turkey's choice will be dictated
more by the influence of Turkish relations with the superpowers
than the impact of Azerbaijan's problems. If problems that outweigh
the problems of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations emerge inside and
around Turkey, Turkey will be obliged to take decisions that bypass
Azerbaijan's interest. We should take into account the fact that US
policy on Iran is leading to an extreme situation in the Middle East.
Certainly, all the countries of the region will have to voice their
attitude to this situation and take a stance. These positions will
affect Armenian-Turkish relations. In the end, the open border
between Turkey and Armenia is not just a reflection of the interests
of the two neighbouring countries. Its geopolitical meaning is also
transparent. Therefore, the opening of this border can be expected any
minute because the narrow interests of Armenia and Turkey do not play
the most decisive role here. The interests and predominant processes
in the region have changed too much, causing changes in the room for
freedom of manoeuvre of each country in the region.
Do you expect any progress in the Karabakh settlement in the near
future?
The state of diplomacy on the Karabakh conflict settlement is currently
unclear. Azerbaijan and Armenia have treated the proposals made by
Russia at the recent presidential meeting in Sochi differently. It
was suggested that the conflict parties present within two weeks their
proposals on issues of difference. Against this background, instead of
presenting its proposals the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has reported
that it agrees with the updated Madrid principles. Therefore, Russia's
proposal to introduce new paragraphs to the text has been rejected.
As opposed to this, the Armenian Foreign Ministry reported that it
would make its proposals and the negotiations would continue when
Azerbaijan proposed its position on the points of difference under the
Sochi agreements. It means that Armenia has supported Russia's new
initiatives. The threat of a split has emerged as a result of these
different approaches to the diplomatic process. It is clear that it
will be difficult to overcome the situation. The mediators' decision
seems to be crucial in overcoming the emerging difficulties. Yet,
there are no signs that the mediators have already expressed their
attitude to the situation. This means that another stage of stagnation
in negotiations is possible.
Do you think it realistic that Azerbaijanis and Armenians can live
together, if the conflict is settled?
Historically, there have been numerous conflicts between Armenians
and Azerbaijanis.
Peaceful life together has been restored only when mechanisms to curb
mutual claims have appeared. Anyway, both peoples should come to a
single scale for the assessment of justice. Every people understands
the concept of a "fair solution" differently. It is time to review the
current state of affairs and recognize each other's rights. Peaceful
life together is impossible or possible when peoples are suppressed
by third powers.
A similar situation existed in the Soviet period. This situation
does not ensure lasting peace. The conflicting people should learn
to conduct direct negotiations without any prerequisites, as it might
improve the climate of relations.