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ARMENIA TRYING TO UNDERMINE SOCHI DOCUMENT - AZERBAIJANI ANALYST
Leyla Tagiyeva
news.az
Feb 24 2010
Azerbaijan
Rasim Musabeyov News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
Rasim Musabeyov.
Do you think the recent fatal shootings on the front line are
politically motivated? The Armenians usually destabilize the situation
in the frontline area after setbacks in the Karabakh negotiations.
Could this explain the shootings on 18 February?
I do not rule this out. Anyway, it is clear that during the Sochi
meeting Azerbaijan voiced readiness to adopt the proposed document. It
is also clear, by the way that the Armenians are dragging out the
issue of submitting their amendments on the proposals of the co-chairs
and by the overall tone of their speeches, that they are wondering
how to torpedo the document. But they are trying to do it in the
usual Armenian way by shifting the blame onto the other side. They
have used different provocative decisions and actions, including the
provocative clashes on the frontline.
But I think Azerbaijan has enough restraint not to yield to
provocations and to force the Armenians to say either "yes" or "no"
and to find a way out of the situation based on its rights.
You've anticipated my next question. Could these provocative games
on the frontline lead to the resumption of hostilities in the region?
No, I don't think so. These exchanges of fire have always taken place
and there have been even more intensive clashes, but they have not
yet grown into large scale hostilities. Unless heavy arms are used,
these incidents can be localized.
What do you think of the future of the Armenian-Turkish protocols on
the reconciliation of these two countries? Their adoption seems to
have reached deadlock.
Yes. Anyway, Turkey has made it clear that it does not intend to
move further without progress on the Karabakh conflict settlement
and with the unilateral interpretation of these agreements by the
Constitutional Court and parliament.
There is a feeling that had it not been for Azerbaijan's harsh
criticism of the protocols and its blackmail of Turkey over gas prices
these documents would have been ratified.
There has been such a feeling. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has shown
that it is not important who is the elder and who the younger brother.
Azerbaijan has managed to persuade the Turkish government and used
public opinion to put quite a difficult choice before the Turkish
government.
Won't the ratification of these protocols or their non-ratification
have an impact on Turkey's role in the Karabakh settlement?
I don't think Turkey would have played a special role after it had
established diplomatic relations with Armenia. It is clear that Armenia
thought it would benefit not from the opening of borders but from
disrupting the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance. If it had managed this,
it would not have been good for Turkish and Azerbaijani politicians.
As chairman-in-office of the OSCE, Kazakhstan has made proposals on
settling the conflict. Will it do more on Karabakh?
Certainly, the OSCE chairman-in-office has a role. It can be more
positive in terms of work and determination and less positive in that
the chairman-in-office can distance himself from the negotiations and
leave them to the Minsk Group co-chairs. But I would not exaggerate
this role. I do not see the role of the OSCE chairman-in-office growing
more than 10%. They do not hold the trump cards. Meanwhile, I welcome
their efforts but we should not have any illusions about their work.
Kazakhstan can play a role as OSCE chairman if it acts together with
the real co-sponsors of the peace settlement, that is, the United
States, France and Russia. If Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
constantly addresses the State Department and the Russian and French
foreign ministries, this will be his greatest role, rather than putting
forward new proposals and offering a roadmap. The real process is
moving and if anyone wants to start it from the beginning again,
they are deeply mistaken.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Leyla Tagiyeva
news.az
Feb 24 2010
Azerbaijan
Rasim Musabeyov News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
Rasim Musabeyov.
Do you think the recent fatal shootings on the front line are
politically motivated? The Armenians usually destabilize the situation
in the frontline area after setbacks in the Karabakh negotiations.
Could this explain the shootings on 18 February?
I do not rule this out. Anyway, it is clear that during the Sochi
meeting Azerbaijan voiced readiness to adopt the proposed document. It
is also clear, by the way that the Armenians are dragging out the
issue of submitting their amendments on the proposals of the co-chairs
and by the overall tone of their speeches, that they are wondering
how to torpedo the document. But they are trying to do it in the
usual Armenian way by shifting the blame onto the other side. They
have used different provocative decisions and actions, including the
provocative clashes on the frontline.
But I think Azerbaijan has enough restraint not to yield to
provocations and to force the Armenians to say either "yes" or "no"
and to find a way out of the situation based on its rights.
You've anticipated my next question. Could these provocative games
on the frontline lead to the resumption of hostilities in the region?
No, I don't think so. These exchanges of fire have always taken place
and there have been even more intensive clashes, but they have not
yet grown into large scale hostilities. Unless heavy arms are used,
these incidents can be localized.
What do you think of the future of the Armenian-Turkish protocols on
the reconciliation of these two countries? Their adoption seems to
have reached deadlock.
Yes. Anyway, Turkey has made it clear that it does not intend to
move further without progress on the Karabakh conflict settlement
and with the unilateral interpretation of these agreements by the
Constitutional Court and parliament.
There is a feeling that had it not been for Azerbaijan's harsh
criticism of the protocols and its blackmail of Turkey over gas prices
these documents would have been ratified.
There has been such a feeling. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has shown
that it is not important who is the elder and who the younger brother.
Azerbaijan has managed to persuade the Turkish government and used
public opinion to put quite a difficult choice before the Turkish
government.
Won't the ratification of these protocols or their non-ratification
have an impact on Turkey's role in the Karabakh settlement?
I don't think Turkey would have played a special role after it had
established diplomatic relations with Armenia. It is clear that Armenia
thought it would benefit not from the opening of borders but from
disrupting the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance. If it had managed this,
it would not have been good for Turkish and Azerbaijani politicians.
As chairman-in-office of the OSCE, Kazakhstan has made proposals on
settling the conflict. Will it do more on Karabakh?
Certainly, the OSCE chairman-in-office has a role. It can be more
positive in terms of work and determination and less positive in that
the chairman-in-office can distance himself from the negotiations and
leave them to the Minsk Group co-chairs. But I would not exaggerate
this role. I do not see the role of the OSCE chairman-in-office growing
more than 10%. They do not hold the trump cards. Meanwhile, I welcome
their efforts but we should not have any illusions about their work.
Kazakhstan can play a role as OSCE chairman if it acts together with
the real co-sponsors of the peace settlement, that is, the United
States, France and Russia. If Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
constantly addresses the State Department and the Russian and French
foreign ministries, this will be his greatest role, rather than putting
forward new proposals and offering a roadmap. The real process is
moving and if anyone wants to start it from the beginning again,
they are deeply mistaken.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress