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  • The Golden Billion

    THE GOLDEN BILLION

    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments-lrah os17356.html
    18:04:56 - 30/03/2010

    The beginning of the process of Armenian-Turkish "rapprochement"
    has created noticeable confusion in the whole field of perception
    and interpretation of the reality by the Armenian expert community.

    Armenian society has found itself in a situation, when states, which
    are the most influential in the region - Russia and USA - have got down
    to the business of establishment of normal neighborly relations between
    Armenia and Turkey with laudable diligence, announcing at the same
    time, that they expect progress in Nagorno-Karabakh problem settlement
    as well. Noticeably different or even conflicting approaches of these
    superpowers to many other important issues have surprisingly coincided
    in the case of settlement of Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, which
    has become a reason for some panic among us. The panic is resulted
    by the fact, that real conditions of formation of new world order,
    interests of main acting sides, programs and resources, underlying
    philosophy of formation of that world order and its relationship
    with steps and statements of purely propaganda nature are apparently
    not assessed in Armenia, NKR and Diaspora. As a result, all groups
    of society - clearly feeling the danger for Armenian interests,
    which first of all originates from the prospective of surrender of
    liberated lands, constituting part of NKR, to azeris - instinctively
    demand from our political forces and statesmen to present the vision
    of the future of already unsteady Armenia-NKR-Diaspora trinity, but
    up to date we did not hear anything but unclear, obscure and empty
    assumptions and good wishes (we do not consider here apocalyptic,
    pessimistic forecasts, since these are display of helplessness and
    decrepit state and are harmful as soon as impose on us the idea of
    irreversibility of processes' dangerous development for us, thus as per
    se non-constructive these cannot have any practical value). One says
    "I do not believe Serj will surrender territories", the other tries
    to persuade us that changing of status quo in Karabakh issue is not
    gainful for super powers, third one seeks to assure us, that USA do
    not have a strategic program for promoting Turkey's desire to expand
    to the East, etc. In reality all of these statements may be qualifies
    as good wishes, in the basis of which are underlying delusions of
    overcoming definitely real dangers by their optimism. We have to
    admit, that if current behavior of Armenia does not change and our
    nation does not gain policy development and conduction quality, then
    "Serj will surrender territory", status quo will be disturbed and
    subject to the nature of those processes, USA may promote Turkey's
    potential desire to expand to the East as well.

    All of these may become reality within the scope of logic of new
    world order formation and unless we understand what logic it is,
    we will also not be able to understand our own steps, will be
    helpless re neutralization of military, physical, economic, morale
    dangers threatening us. The format of this article does not enable
    end-to-end and comprehensive presentation of all features of issue
    under discussion: we will try to talk in general about main factors
    formatting present global situation and make some forecasts regarding
    possible alternatives of further development of the situation,
    by examining in that context the role of Armenia and its future
    prospective as well.

    I do not think that one may argue that collapse of USSR has been a huge
    driver for recent global geopolitical changes. It is the collapse of
    USSR that has proclaimed fall of bipolar world order, result of which
    have been the initiation of globalization, NATO and EU enlargement by
    USA and its allies. Countries which are opponents of these processes'
    development, accuse, that USA along with its closest allies seek to
    establish their rule in the whole world and as an alternative offer
    the idea of multi-polar world. Let's first try to characterize what
    is "establishment of global rule" (hereinafter EGR) by any country
    or group of countries.

    EGR phenomena may be characterized as the establishment of rule of
    one group of people over all other groups under some organizational
    form, with all resulting material advantages. During known history
    of mankind EGR has had its substantial and semantic-philosophic
    development phases: a) intra-continental phase - when struggle for
    EGR has had geographical limitations and it has been possible to talk
    about although huge in territorial sense, but only partial EGR by any
    state formation. This phase is particularly typical for Eurasia and
    Central and South America (before conquista) and has displayed through
    Achaemenid Iran, the Hellenic Empire of Alexander the Great and Rome's
    Republican Empires, which have been followed by Byzantine Empire,
    Arabian Caliphate and Turk-Mongolian Empires, as well as through Maya,
    Aztec and Inca states, b) new geographical appropriations' phase -
    when relevant balance of powers settled down in Eurasian territory
    forced part of European countries to start capturing and colonization
    of geographical zones located out of Eurasian territory, as a result of
    which Great Britain, Spain, Holland, Portugal and France have become
    transoceanic empires, there has ended the process of capturing of the
    whole livable territory of the Earth's land and determination of its
    nationality, c) I phase of struggle for integral EGR - this phase has
    reached the peak of its development in the beginning of 20th century,
    when most economically powerful countries have divided into two
    rival camps and have started WW1, as a result of which victory fell
    to the share of Anglo-Saxon wing and its allies. This has been the
    first and unsuccessful attempt to establish uni-polar world order,
    d) II phase of struggle for integral EGR - this phase has started by
    WW2. This war again has ended with the victory of Anglo-Saxon wing,
    but this time there has been formed a bipolar world order, one pole
    of which has constituted of most developed countries and Japan, with
    exceptional Anglo-American leadership, and the other pole - of USSR
    with its Eastern European allies and China, e) Phase of struggle for
    EGR in post-soviet period, principles of formation of new world order
    -we are currently witnesses and participants of this phase.

    It should be underlined here, that struggle for EGR has objective
    nature, and it does not depend on personal preferences and wishes. The
    peculiarity of that struggle is the fact that its final result assumes
    establishment of uni-polar world order, and the paradox is that
    establishment of uni-polar world contains objective preconditions for
    its break-up. EGR by any state or alliance lets it secure the highest
    level of own standard of life, managing of material, financial and
    intellectual resources of the resting world, and besides intrusion
    of its value system to the others as a consequence. Transformation
    of multi-polar or bipolar world order into uni-polar and recurrence
    of opposite process are conditioned by some peculiarities lying
    in the basis of human economic activity, turning to which here is
    not appropriate; still we have to mention that realization of this
    geopolitical changes has usually been accompanied by very significant
    human and material losses. It comes out that on one hand struggle
    for EGR and uni-polar world is inevitable, and on the other hand
    unipolarity is temporary phenomena and after its establishment there
    should be expected a break-up of the pole and establishment of bi-
    or multipolarity. This is the principle. Results of WW2 - victory
    of USA-Great Britain-USSR alliance over Germany and its allies
    and formation of socialistic countries camp leaded by USSR - have
    provided to the West a unique chance to breach this principle. This
    has given a possibility to establish a false bipolar world order
    which has existed until the collapse of USSR. This bipolarity has
    been false, since alliances of states of which have consisted poles
    have formulated objectives of struggle for EGR in different ways,
    which has provided Anglo-American alliance a unique chance to gather
    around it world's most developed Western European countries and Japan,
    i.e. even its former enemies. The declared core of this group has
    been the struggle against Soviet expansionism. Using the fact that
    USSR has been struggling for EGR solely in ideological field and
    has been spending huge resources for success in it, Anglo-American
    alliance has reached absolute advantage in the economic sphere,
    securing sharp and unprecedented growth of its and its ally states'
    living standard, with all subsequent advantages. By initiating the cold
    war Anglo-American alliance has prevented struggle for EGR between
    Western states and has secured its own leadership among allies. The
    "confidential" transfer of nuclear weapon production technology to
    the USSR has served for the same purpose. Thereby there has developed
    the so called "golden billion", that is the group of most developed
    countries with about one billion of population. Existence of USSR
    and its allies' camp has secured hegemony of Anglo-American alliance
    within the limits of "golden billion". Dismantling and collapse of
    USSR have caused serious damage to those positions. As long as there
    has existed USSR Anglo-American alliance has had no reasons to be
    afraid of loosing its influence in European Union and especially on
    French-German core. USSR successor - new Russia - has in fact applied
    for participation in "golden billion" by refusing from ideological
    struggle for EGR and communism doctrine. In the judgment of ruling
    Russian elite Russia has made the most important steps required for
    joining "golden billion": It has collapsed USSR, Has refused from
    communism doctrine, Has stopped being military threat for the West.

    By the effort of Anglo-American alliance that application has been
    denied and there has been developed a stronghold consisting of
    Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and Georgia to separate Russia from
    its potential European allies. Joining of Russia to "golden billion"
    club will jeopardize Anglo-American positions, since it may create a
    temptation to establish Russian-French-German alliance, thus resulting
    in appearance of poles within the scope of "golden billion" itself and
    blow it up from the inside. This is a very serious threat not only for
    Anglo-American domination within the framework of "golden billion",
    but is also fraught with the danger of beginning of WW3. It is obvious
    that in nuclear world this scenario will be disastrous. Therefore,
    the issue should be solved in a way, that while staying out of "golden
    billion", Russia will get a sufficient role and weight in the world,
    within the context of economic processes of on-going global changes.

    In that sense it has been very important, that during the convention
    of Russia's ruling party "United Russia" there has been adopted the
    new ideological doctrine of Russia - Russian conservatism, which may
    be considered as declaration of refusal of RF from struggle for EGR.

    Our impression is that repulsiveness of Anglo-American alliance has
    become an unpleasant surprise for the establishment of RF during
    1990s. Administrations of Putin and Medvedev, succeeding Yeltsin,
    perhaps have perceived this Anglo-American rejecting position as a
    reality, which rather than deep analysis requires counteraction. As a
    result of that, foreign and home policy carried out by RF during last
    decade has accordingly become more aggressive and authoritarian, and
    its most bright display has been Russian-Georgian war. It maybe said
    that Anglo-American alliance has succeeded in modeling the process of
    geopolitical developments in a way that Russia by itself has perhaps
    unwillingly become their ally through scaring away Europeans by its
    actions. We suppose that the surprising coincidence of approaches, that
    show USA, Great Britain and Russia in the processes of Armenian-Turkish
    rapprochement and Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, should be considered in
    this very context. At that, currently it is noticeable even by naked
    eye that through excitation of Armenian issue and threat of official
    recognition of Armenian Genocide USA is simply causing anti-American
    moods in Turkey, thus stimulating the tendency of the establishment of
    that country to obtain strategic partner in the person of Russia. At
    the same time it may be said that USA is coolly watching unprecedented
    persecutions of top-level militaries, which are its support in Turkey,
    without interfering into developments in no way. It may be said
    that USA has simply surrendered militaries, which are their trusted
    and faithful support in Turkey, to political opponents. If process
    continues with the same logic then Turkey will also be once and for
    all left out of "golden billion" like Russia, which will naturally lead
    to the establishment of Russian-Turkish strategic alliance. By the way
    there should be underlined that new Russian doctrine of conservatism is
    substantially affected by the ideology of "eurasism", which advocates
    the necessity of the establishment of Turkic-Slavonic alliance. That
    is, currently there are already in place philosophical-ideological,
    economic (unprecedented growth of Russian-Turkish commodity turnover)
    and geopolitical (necessity of development and launching of dangers
    originating from the East for the purpose of securing Anglo-American
    element's domination within European Union) preconditions for the
    establishment of RF-Turkey alliance. In the end, this alliance will
    form geopolitical zone of modern "barbarians", which will be called
    on one side to secure Anglo-American domination in EU by terrorizing
    Europeans, and to balance growing ambitions of China on the other,
    while at the same time fragmenting Eurasia into three large confronting
    parts. Presently, for Russia there is perhaps foreseen the leading role
    in the geopolitical camp of "barbarians", which will separate European
    Union from South-Eastern Asia. Turkey, which has chosen Islamism, may
    deservingly pretend for the role of number two in that camp. This camp,
    which will include Russia, Turkey, Central Asian countries, so far
    part of South Caucasus, Iran, Pakistan, the most part of Arab world,
    thanks to its exceptional cultural, religious, ethnic and economic
    multiplicity and antipathy, will be a zone of cultural instability and
    conflicts. Existence of such zone is aimed at securing the exceptional
    Anglo-American domination within "golden billion", including European
    Union, which will in its turn secure the preservation of USA-Great
    Britain tandem's leading positions in the world.

    This kind of perspective of geopolitical developments contains both
    serious threats and some new possibilities for Armenia. In this new,
    ripening situation there have been once again seriously activated
    the excitation of and speculations over Armenian question (i.e.,
    Armenian-Turkish relations) and Nagorno-Karabakh issue. There is
    being made an attempt to direct geopolitical processes taking place
    in South Caucasus through internationalization of Genocide carried out
    by Turkish authorities during WW1 and through turning consequences of
    division of Armenia by the efforts of Russian-Azeri-Turkish alliance
    in 1920-1922 into a good instrument for formation of "barbarian's"
    zone. Recognition of the Armenian Genocide especially by USA, Great
    Britain and Israel is a very serious and real threat for Turkey both
    from the point of view of territorial integrity preservation and
    undesirable perspective of paying huge compensation to the Armenian
    nation, exposed to Genocide. The problem of Armenian territories found
    within Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhijevan issues,
    are natural and logical outcome of Russian-Azeri-Turkish alliance's
    actions. Thanks to that alliance Bolshevik Russia has established
    its rule in South Caucasus and by means of Moscow and Kars Treaties
    there has been solved the issue of future USSR-Turkey border, thanks
    to Turkey Caucasian Tatars have got a chance to found a state on
    a territory, which has been unsuitable with their ethnic, economic
    and military potential, and Turkey - by creating preconditions for
    securing its geopolitical advancement to the East and direct land
    communication with the resting Turkic world, whenever there will be
    an opportunity - has also neutralized threat originating from Armenia
    and has recaptured Cilicia and some other territories by concentrating
    its force in the West. We have to admit that Armenian state, in the
    form of Soviet Armenia, has been preserved by the efforts of Russians
    and solely for one reason - not letting Turkey to have its dreamed
    direct land communication with sovietized Turkic world - Caucasian
    Tatars and autonomous Turkic state formations within Central Asia
    and Russia, since it has been obvious that in the course of time that
    could have become a serious threat for the existence of USSR. After
    the collapse of USSR the realities of 1918-1922 have returned and
    interests of super powers and their actions proceeding from latter are
    aimed at solving global problems through aggravating Armenian-Turkish
    and Armenian-Azeri relations. We have to get used to the reality,
    that main geopolitical meaning of Armenia for the great ones of this
    world is related with separation of Turkey from the resting Turkic
    world and having unsolved and seemingly unsolvable international and
    territorial problems with neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan. In this
    circumstances the price of the formation of Russian-Turkish alliance
    proceeding from Anglo-American interest will be once again paid at the
    expense of Armenian interests - Armenia and NKR will have to surrender
    liberated territories and in that sense some ideological preparations
    by the authorities of RA and NKR are already being marked. It may
    be said, that formation of Russian-Turkish alliance will also mean
    that by finally refusing from the idea of becoming part of "golden
    billion" Russia actually agrees with the role that Great Britain,
    USA and Israel prepare for it.

    If Russian-Turkish alliance does not happen due to some reasons,
    then geopolitical role of Turkey will continue decreasing, which will
    most probably lead to internal explosion. The fact that military
    elite of Turkey is currently deprived from huge foreign support of
    the past is also a factor promoting it. Long-drawn destabilization
    of situation in Turkey is also an acceptable choice from the point
    of view of Anglo-American interests; with the only difference that
    there will be necessary to put additional efforts for the prevention of
    rapprochement of Russia and French-German core of EU. Such development
    may also lead to loss of territories within the context of settlement
    of Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since now it will make Azerbaijan to seek
    ways for rapprochement with RF - by letting Russia to restore its
    exceptional strategic presence in Azerbaijan Republic in return for
    liberated territories, which are part of NKR.

    Surrender of territories by NKR is also foreseen by the settlement
    scenario suggested by Minsk Group, and Armenian-Turkish protocols
    maybe considered as an additional factor supporting the realization
    of that scenario. That scenario with all of its additional factors
    may be qualified as false mean, declared objectives and real possible
    outcomes of which have no connection at all.

    In any case in all above mentioned scenarios geopolitical role of
    Armenia and Armenian question in the wide sense is invariable - it
    is the role of separator of Turkey from Turkic world, enemy and at
    the same time the victim of Turkey. That is, all centers developing
    and realizing policy on a global scale - USA, Great Britain, Russia,
    China, France, Israel, some influential states of the Middle East -
    have always encouraged, intensified and used Armenian-Turkish conflict
    for their interests.

    Existence of the Armenian question and confrontation with Armenians
    has become a very serious challenge for Turkish state especially
    starting from the second half of 19th century and up to now. As
    a result, from the large number of Armenians living on a territory
    lying between Constantinople and Baku there has remained a small wedge
    populated by Armenians, which includes only population of Artsakh,
    Javaghk and the Republic of Armenia, and Armenian question remains
    one of the most important instruments of international powers for
    putting pressure on Turkey.

    Perhaps we (we mean Armenia and Turkey) will finally understand
    that unless Armenia is not ready to change its geopolitical role
    and Turkey refuses to understand strategic issues and interests of
    Armenia requiring satisfaction related with the change of that role,
    the situation will not change and ultimately either Turkey will sink
    into a stream of long-drawn mutiny and decay, or the existence of
    Armenian state and Armenian nation will appear under the danger of
    disappearance in this last part of its cradle. We may witness that
    current situation does not contain even minimal grounds for optimism.

    Quality and substance of Armenian-Turkish relations may change only in
    one case - if Turkey and Armenia realize that in strategic, long-term
    sense current quality of relations is an extreme threat for them and
    even collapse of one will not mean any benefit for the other. They
    may win only together and by joint efforts.

    As an example of such possible merging of efforts we will present
    below a scenario, realization of which is up to will of authorities
    and people of Turkey and Armenia and may solve both more than 100-year
    old Armenian-Turkish cruel confrontation and Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

    It is also very important that the program may be realized within
    the context of both Russian interests and interests of other centers
    of force. Suggested scenario, taking into account prevalent moods in
    Armenia and Turkey, is so far theoretical, but taking into account
    its major advantages for sides, we also do not rule out that its
    international discussion may become an incentive for its practical
    realization as well. Its major peculiarity is the fact that:

    ·In case of Turkey - it removes the obstacle for having direct land
    communication with Turkic world, liquidates morale and legal effects
    of the Armenian Genocide, as well as the opportunity of using the fact
    of the Genocide as an instrument used against Turkey by super powers,
    substantially reduces hostility and distrust of Diaspora and Armenia
    people against Turkey,

    ·In case of Azerbaijan - it removes the obstacle for direct land
    communication with its closest ally Turkey, provides a possibility
    to return some of territories lost during Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
    particularly in Trans-Araxian region and to realize re-settlement
    of that territories, creates preconditions for a real Armenian-Azeri
    reconciliation, ·In case of Armenia - it removes the danger of ever
    being blockaded, provides persons subjected to Genocide in Turkey
    and Azerbaijan and their heirs a possibility of receiving partial
    compensation for material and morale losses sustained by them. Armenia
    will unintentionally become one of the transit countries of the region.

    In case of existence of such desire Turkey and Azerbaijan and,
    respectively, Armenia and NKR may unite in one state or create
    federative or confederative state formations. For the purpose
    of escaping transformation of problems related with cultural and
    historical heritage into political, territorial disputes, territory
    of that formations may be declared a territory of Armenian-Turkish
    or Armenian-Islamic heritage.

    The basis for such development of events should be the exchange
    of territories of strategic significance, unprecedented for sides,
    in case of which Armenia and NKR transfer to Turkey and Azerbaijan
    respectively Meghri region and Trans-Araxian liberated territories,
    by being deprived of common border with Iran, and in return Turkey
    transfers to Armenia a corridor with average width of 50-60 km with
    an outlet to the Black Sea, thanks to which Armenia may not only
    not be afraid of land blockade, but will also have in its territory
    the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway. A global center, which will support
    this program, will also get new, exceptional possibilities to have
    an influence on geopolitical processes in the whole Eurasia and for
    preservation or establishment of its EGR. Moreover, this scenario also
    provides an opportunity for long-term cooperation of two power centers.

    P.S. Except above mentioned, this scenario also contains number of
    other advantages of strategic nature for Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan
    and NKR, but for realization of all of these our societies should
    be able to overcome the existing exceptional egocentrism and give
    preference to strategic and long-term mutually beneficial solutions.

    P.P.S. Presence of nuclear weapon in modern world compels new strategy
    and tactics for settlement of interstate disputes and for winning
    economic competition even to super powers. Use of force against a
    country which has nuclear weapon (e.g. Iran) is very improbable. This
    means that victory over such country is possible either by means of
    application of strict economic sanctions (effectiveness of which is
    usually low) or through disintegration and ruining of functioning of
    public administration system using internal resources existing in it.

    ARMAN MELIKYAN [email protected]
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