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BAKU: Iranians Flock To Azerbaijan At 'Slightest Hint Of War'

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  • BAKU: Iranians Flock To Azerbaijan At 'Slightest Hint Of War'

    IRANIANS FLOCK TO AZERBAIJAN AT 'SLIGHTEST HINT OF WAR'

    news.az
    April 14 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Leyla Aliyeva News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
    Leyla Aliyeva.

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned Israel not to launch
    hostilities against Iran, as this may lead to the use of nuclear
    weapons and global disaster. May Israel start a war against Iran?

    The world community is mobilizing both in the region and the West
    over sanctions on Iran. US President Barack Obama is working on it,
    while Russia has voiced a positive attitude towards sanctions. Indeed,
    the more countries join the sanctions, the lower the possibility of
    war against Iran. Taking into account the fact that Obama's policy
    in this regard is different from his predecessor's and that Obama
    prefers to use diplomatic channels as much as possible to avert
    threats, and considering Russia's positive stance on these sanctions,
    Israel may be concerned. Iran is a direct threat to Israel because
    of its uncontrolled nuclear program. Israel is also concerned at the
    role Iran plays in the Middle Eastern conflict. Therefore, Israel is
    using threats of attack as a means to put pressure on Iran. However,
    Israel is doing this in order to sort out its problems. I am not sure,
    therefore, that Israel will take any action against Iran alone,
    especially at a time when international sanctions on the Iranian
    nuclear program are mobilized.

    In his interview with ABC TV in the USA, President Medvedev expressed
    concern at the humanitarian implications of a war in Iran. How would
    you comment on Moscow's position in this conflict?

    The statement of the Russian president is quite natural because Moscow
    is now trying to show itself as a civilized player in the region. On
    the one hand, it has agreed with the United States on reducing nuclear
    weapons and, on the other, it has expressed a positive attitude
    towards international sanctions against Iran. This means that,
    in this case, Russia supports US policy which gives preference to
    multilateral actions. When Israel is threatened with war, Medvedev's
    statement is a signal to Israel, on the one hand, and, on the other,
    it shows Russia's attitude in general to any unilateral action by
    countries outside the region against the countries that Moscow views
    as its own backyard. In fact, Russia could have merely said that
    this region is in its area its interest and Israel has no right to
    go there. But in this statement Medvedev has cast the problem as a
    humanitarian disaster, for which there are certainly good grounds -
    it is reasonable and logical since not only Russia but also our local
    experts have said that any war in the neighbourhood may result in a
    flow of refugees to neighbouring countries.

    How realistic do you consider the threat of a mass influx of ethnic
    Azerbaijanis from Iran to Azerbaijan if Israel starts war against Iran?

    We have already seen that the number of Iranians in Baku grows whenever
    there are tensions in relations between the West and Israel and
    Iran. This trend already exists. Even when there is no war, Iranians
    move to Azerbaijan at the slightest hint of war. They say that they
    even buy flats in Baku. Therefore, I think Medvedev's statement is
    not groundless.

    There are 30 million ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran, so is not difficult
    to guess where they would primarily move to. What are the humanitarian
    implications of a mass influx of Iranian Azerbaijanis?

    Any war is a great burden on neighbouring countries. Indeed, there are
    30 million people there, while the population of Azerbaijan reached
    9 million only recently. Don't think that Azerbaijan is indifferent
    to this process. It is also putting effort into averting possible war.

    Azerbaijan played a mediatory role to soften the positions of the
    supporters of extreme sanctions against Iran and Tehran. As Azerbaijan
    will feel all the burden of the neighbouring countries if there is
    a war against Iran, it has an interest in mitigating the positions
    of the conflict parties. It's another matter that Azerbaijan cannot
    influence Iran to stop its nuclear program, but Azerbaijan can and
    does voice its concerns in public.

    The commander of the Iranian infantry, Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, said
    Iran would resist countries that attacked it and would declare states
    supporting this attack to be their enemies. Does Azerbaijan have a
    chance of not being declared Iran's enemy considering our partnership
    relations with the United States and Israel?

    I think our chances are quite good since Azerbaijan has so far
    managed to preserve the diplomatic balance. At the same time, I think
    Azerbaijan will certainly join some international sanctions on Iran
    that are not extreme. Azerbaijan will probably be selective as to
    these sanctions because there are aspects that it cannot ignore, for
    example, the vitally important trade with Iran. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan
    cannot betray its strategic partnership with leading states that
    propose sanctions.

    Don't you think that Azerbaijan's support for the sanctions, though
    selective, will automatically make it Iran's enemy?

    Certainly, it will, but Azerbaijan can always persuade Iran that it
    has obligations towards its strategic partners. It is always possible
    to find a way out of the situation and I think Azerbaijan will
    try to do so. Our government has repeatedly declared balance in its
    foreign policy as a priority. On its part, Iran is not so sensitive to
    Azerbaijan's threat. We all know that both during the Karabakh war and
    up to now Iran has continued trade with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Therefore, Azerbaijan also has grounds to join sanctions against Iran.

    However, it is always possible to find a compromise that would not
    undermine relations with Iran and would not bring relations with Iran
    to extremes, on the one hand, and would not undermine its strategic
    alliance with Western partners on the other.
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