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BAKU: West Would Not Support Armenian Position On Karabakh - Analyst

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  • BAKU: West Would Not Support Armenian Position On Karabakh - Analyst

    WEST WOULD NOT SUPPORT ARMENIAN POSITION ON KARABAKH - ANALYST

    news.az
    April 16 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Michael Gunter News.Az interviews Professor Michael Gunter, Tennessee
    Technological University, USA & The International University, Vienna,
    Austria.

    President Aliyev accused US, Russia and France in attempts to improve
    economic situation in Armenia but not putting pressure on Yerevan
    in Karabakh issue to make it liberate occupied lands of Azerbaijan,
    what would ensure prosperity of Armenia and the whole region. So
    why international community is interested in improving situation in
    Armenia more than in the Karabakgh settlement?

    Turkey opening its border with Armenia would greatly aid Armenia's
    ailing economic situation and also redound favorably for the entire
    Caucasus region as well as Turkey. However, surely Armenia would
    gain the most economically from any settlement that resulted in open
    borders. The international community (read the culturally Christian
    West) has an inherent sympathy for Christian Armenia and against the
    Turkic Muslim world which was the historic enemy of the West. This
    of course is simply a background factor. More immediately, the West
    has a built-in favoritism toward the Armenians because of the West's
    perception that the Turks committed genocide against the Armenians
    in World War I.

    President Sargsyan said after meeting with prime-minister Erdogan
    that Armenia will never accept compromises in "genocide" issue and
    Karabagh problem. How real are the improvements between Armenia and
    Turkey and Armenia and Azerbaijan in this regard?

    Sargsyan has to say these things to prevent his constituency from
    getting rid of him. However, this does not mean that Sargsyan will
    not continue to negotiate. Otherwise, he never would have signed
    the protocols in the first place. Of course, Sargsyan must bargain
    for the best possible deal for the Armenians. This is part of the
    initial bargaining process leading up to the eventual ratification
    of the protocols signed in October 2009.

    The Armenian side says that getting independence for Karabakh is the
    only way to solve the conflict. Its clear that Azerbaijan will never
    recognize it. Can Armenia expect support from international community
    if Yerevan first will declare this "independence"?

    Despite the inherent Western sympathy for Armenia, this Western
    support would not go so far as to support the Armenian position on
    Nagorno Karabakh. Independence for Nagorno Karabakh would fly in the
    face of the sacred principle of territorial integrity and no Western
    state is interested in doing this as it would amount to inviting its
    own possible dismemberment in the future.

    There is an opinion that the Karabakh problem harms Armenia more than
    Azerbaijan and it would be easier to solve the Karabakh conflict
    between Azerbaijan and Armenia (which is in economical crisis) if
    there were no interruption from Armenia diaspora, which don't accept
    any compromises. How would you comment on this point of view?

    There can be no doubt that the wealthy and economically satisfied
    Armenian diaspora opposes ratification of the protocols as well as
    any compromise on Nagorno Karabakh more that Armenia or Azerbaijan
    for whom these problems are much more immediate and therefore demand a
    compromise solution. Compromise for the Armenian diaspora is much more
    difficult because continuing enmity for Turkey and Azerbaijan is the
    only bond or glue strong enough to bind the otherwise territorially,
    linguistic and religiously diverse diaspora communities together.

    A striking example of the inflexibility assumed by the Armenian
    diaspora follows. While meeting with Armenian President Sargsyan
    during his trip to the United States, Dashnak Central Committee
    Chairman Antranig Kasbarian declared that the protocols were a
    "dangerous course" that would make "Armenia's predicament go from
    bad to worse." He also invoked the memory of former U.S. President
    Woodrow Wilson as a "guarantor of Western Armenia" which of course
    is eastern Turkey. The United Kingdom might as well cite its medieval
    claim to half of France!

    How would you estimate role of Russia as a mediator in the conflict
    between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

    Given its historic ties from Soviet times and even earlier, Russia
    certainly has a possible role as a knowledgeable mediator. However,
    we also must realize that Russia has always had an historic bias in
    favor of the Armenians due to cultural and religious factors.

    What are prospective of the soon progress in the Karabakh settlement?

    Can it be resolved in 2010?

    It is highly unlikely that the Nagorno Karabakh issue will be solved in
    2010. What is more likely is that this issue will continue to fester
    for the foreseeable future. Only a great deal of time is likely to
    gradually lead to some type of understanding.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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