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news.az, Azerbaijan
May 4 2011
Trends in Armenia's political scene
Wed 04 May 2011 07:20 GMT | 10:20 Local Time
by Gunduz Shabanov, the leading expert at the Strategic Research
Center of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Recent developments in political life of Armenia suggest that the
political forces, supported by various external geopolitical centers,
long before the announcement of the parliamentary elections to be held
in 2012, joined the struggle for seats in the National Assembly with a
view to win presidency in 2013.
Currently, three main fighting forces, which can be divided into the
following categories, act in the political field in Armenia.
¢ The Armenian National Congress (ANC), led by first president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan;
¢ Latent forces which support Robert Kocharyan;
¢ The current authorities led by President Serzh Sargsyan, who is
forced to keep balance between the two afore-said groups and various
external actors.
There are also other two political forces in Armenia: ARF
Dashnaksutyun and the Heritage Party, which every year lose their
effective mechanisms to influence the agenda.
What does Levon Ter-Petrosyan want?
The series of rallies which began on 1 March and continued on 17 March
and 8 April marked the line of tactics and strategies to deal with the
authorities. Though in 1 March rally the Armenian National Congress
put forward demands consisting 15 points to the authorities, in 17
March rally these demands were reduced to three: to release political
prisoners, grant freedom to hold rallies at Freedom Square, as well as
to solve tragic events of 1 March, 2008, and punish the culprits.
At 8 April rally when these demands were announced, Ter-Petrosyan
assured the people that once the authorities fail to meet them, the
rally that started on 28 April will tighten the tactics of the
opposition. However, extra-parliamentary opposition leader Levon
Ter-Petrosyan postponed the date of decision till 31 May, making a
compromise to authorities.
In a bid to explain his move, Ter-Petrosyan said he is concerned about
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and does not want the situation in
Armenia to destabilize and play into the hands of Azerbaijan.
It is noteworthy that many of his supporters asked a reasonable
question why Levon Ter-Petrosyan did not care about the threats to
Karabakh in his former radical statements and actions, and he even
announced that the Karabakh problem can not be an excuse against a
resolute struggle against the authorities.
This change significantly affected the number of ANC supporters. Thus,
though the number of protesters grew in February and reached its peak
during the 17 March rally, the rally participants realized that Levon
Ter-Petrosyan does not want to act decisively in spite of its previous
harsh statements in the 1 March rally.
What is the reason for the conciliatory stance of Levon Ter-Petrosyan?
Given the recent reports in the Armenian media, many do not doubt that
there is some agreement between the government and non-parliamentary
opposition achieved through negotiations.
Steps taken by President Serzh Sargsyan to meet requirements of the
opposition testify to this. As is known, the authorities sanctioned
the rally on Freedom Square on 28 April, although they limited the
number of participants using administrative measures. An order was
issues to renew an investigation into the 1 March events at the same
time not allowing involvement of an international commission, contrary
to ANC demands and authorities began to release political prisoners.
News.am news website reported on 29 April quoting Erkir newspaper that
the talks mediated by U.S. ambassador to Armenia Mari Yovanovich and
the authorities were represented by G. Harutyunyan, chairman of the
Constitutional Court and the opposition by ` Levon Zurabyan, former
spokesman to the president Ter-Petrosyan. The parties agreed upon on
three requirements that the authorities were to meet by late May
(http://news.am/rus/reviews/1683.html).
Even though U.S. embassy in Armenia denied its mediation in the
meeting between the opposition and authorities
(http://news.am/rus/news/57690.html), the signs of U.S. interest in
domestic political processes in Armenia can be noticed if one looks at
Ter-Petrosyan's second comeback to politics.
Thus, young political consultants trained in various Western
organizations and funds joined Ter-Petrosyan's team during the 2008
presidential elections.
The same Levon Zurabian, a former analyst for the International Crisis
Group, became the most important and influential of them.
The team of analysts and image-makers of Ter-Petrosyan run the
election campaign using different multimedia platforms such as Youtube
And the decision to abandon the brand Armenian National Movement which
was associated with the "notorious" 1990s among the population was a
well-thought-out move. Ter-Petrosyan entered ??the political arena as
the head of a new project - ANC.
May the power in Armenia change any time soon?
The change of power in Armenia at the present stage and the victory of
relatively pro-Western politician as Ter-Petrosyan, to detriment to
strong pro-Russian forces, would lead to chaos and instability, which
contradicts interests of the West. Serzh Sargsyan fully meets
requirements of forces trying to gain a foothold in Armenia through
the resumption of the Armenian-Turkish talks. This requires
consolidating Serzh Sargsyan's grip on power even through the
irreconcilable opposition, which shares almost the same position with
authorities in foreign affairs, and weaken the geopolitical side
backed rival Robert Kocharyan. That is why Kocharyan's name is present
in an opposition-government dialogue.
Although representatives of the ruling Republican Party keep saying
that dialogue with the opposition took place, the only matter that
Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan can talk about is preventing
Kocharyan from accessing the power and completely eliminating him from
the political scene.
This is proved by Sargsyan's decision to renew investigation into the
1 March events through which he wanted to show that he is not Robert
Kocharyan's successor and intends to play an independent role in
political processes.
Given the relationship between Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharyan, the
factor of the second president could pave the way for negotiations.
The fact that the legitimacy of the 2008 elections were not discussed
at the meeting shows that issues related to Kocharyan were discussed
instead.
The West has the same attitude to legitimacy of authorities in
Armenia. Though Barack Obama met Serzh Sargsyan as a president of
Armenia at the nuclear summit in the U.S., the annual Human Rights
report compiled by the State Department have noted for already third
year that the 2008 elections were conducted with serious violations
(http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/1981699, http:
//www.1in.am/rus/a_a_4475.html). Both the opposition and West seem to
reconcile with this and focus their main efforts on the main goal -
the upcoming parliamentary elections.
What are the expectations for 2011?
Passing a new draft Election Code, which is currently in the second
reading in the Armenian parliament, shows that people have lost the
opportunity to change powers through elections and the only guarantee
that the falsifications in elections will not be tolerated will be the
publication of election lists after voting.
Member of the Heritage parliamentary faction Armen Martirosyan
believes that `Armenian authorities are trying a new game' through
formation of the election commission on professional basis. He says
there is not a single independent structure in Armenia, which is why
formation of such an independent commission could be just imitated.
For this reason, the Heritage party and Dashnaktsutun that feel the
risk of future changes, are unanimous in insisting that commission
must be 100% political and made up of party members, where opposition
and authorities will be represented on 50/50 basis.
In turn, ODIHR and the Venice Commission have provided an opinion on
the draft Election Code of Armenia. They also offered to revise the
order of forming election commissions to ensure independence of their
activity and public trust. So, once the draft is passed, of which all
analysts are confident, elections will be fully controlled by the
Presidential Administration of Armenia.
This ball game will help force the Flourishing Armenia party to
abandon the decision to nominate its list to parliamentary elections
and agree to participate in the common list with partners from the
current coalition: the Republican Party and Armenia and Orinats Yerkir
(Country of Legality). The latter might even join the ranks of the
Republican Party of Armenia, thus showing an example to the
Flourishing Party of Armenia which remains the only appendix of the
ruling coalition.
Armenian National Congress may regain its role of the main opposition
power. Though it will seemingly not win the overwhelming number of
votes, its representation in the Parliament will create a picture
making the return of the second president of Armenia Rober Kocharyan
to power unreal. The latter will have no support left on the political
advance stage thanks to which he would be able to return to active
policy. Creation of a new political power may lead Kocharyan to
complete breakup.
They say in Armenia that the 1 March tragedy was not profitable for
Serzh Sargsyan though beneficiary for Robert Kocharyan who thus
obtained a leverage of influence on Sargsyan. Viktor Sogomonyan, the
press secretary of Robert Kocharyan, said in response to next remarks
on 1 March 2008 tragedy that `only a man of sense could say that 1
March was profitable only for Kocharyan', thus broadening the circle
of those who were interested in 1 March shooting and involuntarily
putting Serzh Sargsyan onto this list.
Sargsyan's urge to launch investigation into 1 March shooting may
provide an answer to the one of the main questions `who ordered the
shooting?!' All incidental facts point to then-president Robert
Kocharyan. Though Sargsyan had been fencing him off the judicial
processes, he can now give the go-ahead to holding Kocharyan
accountable.
The second no less important but still a lateral argument will become
the earlier declared decision of Levon Ter-Petrosyan to run for
presidency in 2013 provided that Robert Kocharyan nominates. Given
the fact that during the meeting of 17 March Levon Ter-Petrosyan
renounced radical ways of fighting for pre-term presidential
elections, it is clear that the authorities will last out well to the
next presidential elections and then Serzh Sargsyan will try to
persuade Kocharyan to give up the struggle for the presidential seat,
citing Ter-Petrosyan's factor as an argument.
Some say Dashnaktsutun and the Flourishing Armenia parties represent
the potential political platform for Kocharyan, but the latest events
and the statements by Flourishing Armenia's leader Gagik Tsarukyan
point that it is not exactly like this. Support to Robert Kocharyan by
the coalition party of Flourishing Armenia is unlikely, since the
leader of this political party Gagik Tsarukyan positioned himself as
an independent but balancing politician over the past years. As a
leader of the second biggest faction in the Armenian parliament,
Tsarukyan is an extremely attractive partner for the speaker of the
National Assembly and Armenia's principal entrepreneur Hovik
Abrahamyan with whom Tsarukyan has kinship.
Raffi Hovanissian (leader of the Heritage Party) was the first
`victim' of cleanup in the political area of Armenia, held by the
Armenian National Congress and Serzh Sargsyan. He realized that the
Republican Party of Armenia and the Armenian National Congress will
never tolerate powers able to obstruct their political goals, in the
parliament. Most evaluated Ter-Petrosyan's refusal to talk to
hunger-striker Hovannisian, as a sign of his unwillingness to put
Hovanissian onto the lists of the Armenian National Congress.
Additionally, ANC and Levon Ter-Petrosyan attempt to remove or
discredit political forces able to become an alternative to them on
the opposition space. By this, ANC is trying to become the only
alternative to the incumbent powers.
Meanwhile, Dashnaktsutun is keeping its strong positions despite
obvious implications of the political cleanup. Therefore, Armenian
National Congress and Republican Party of Armenia may reach an
agreement to `let' ARF Dashnaktsutun into the National Assembly to
ensure the presence of a nationalistic power in the parliament.
It can be said for sure that the future balance of powers in Armenia
will depend on relations between Sargsyan and Kocharyan. Progress in
the political space of Armenia, aimed at forming conditions for
structuring a new political reality, is evident. Vulnerability of the
foreign political positions of Armenia also weakens pressure of powers
on opposition and creates pseudo-democratic situation in the country.
Passing the Election Code in it current variant does not promise
democratic elections in Armenia, while political steps of the
authorities are just tactical actions intended to grade the threats
posed by political oppositions and seize entire control over the
political space.
News.Az
From: A. Papazian
May 4 2011
Trends in Armenia's political scene
Wed 04 May 2011 07:20 GMT | 10:20 Local Time
by Gunduz Shabanov, the leading expert at the Strategic Research
Center of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Recent developments in political life of Armenia suggest that the
political forces, supported by various external geopolitical centers,
long before the announcement of the parliamentary elections to be held
in 2012, joined the struggle for seats in the National Assembly with a
view to win presidency in 2013.
Currently, three main fighting forces, which can be divided into the
following categories, act in the political field in Armenia.
¢ The Armenian National Congress (ANC), led by first president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan;
¢ Latent forces which support Robert Kocharyan;
¢ The current authorities led by President Serzh Sargsyan, who is
forced to keep balance between the two afore-said groups and various
external actors.
There are also other two political forces in Armenia: ARF
Dashnaksutyun and the Heritage Party, which every year lose their
effective mechanisms to influence the agenda.
What does Levon Ter-Petrosyan want?
The series of rallies which began on 1 March and continued on 17 March
and 8 April marked the line of tactics and strategies to deal with the
authorities. Though in 1 March rally the Armenian National Congress
put forward demands consisting 15 points to the authorities, in 17
March rally these demands were reduced to three: to release political
prisoners, grant freedom to hold rallies at Freedom Square, as well as
to solve tragic events of 1 March, 2008, and punish the culprits.
At 8 April rally when these demands were announced, Ter-Petrosyan
assured the people that once the authorities fail to meet them, the
rally that started on 28 April will tighten the tactics of the
opposition. However, extra-parliamentary opposition leader Levon
Ter-Petrosyan postponed the date of decision till 31 May, making a
compromise to authorities.
In a bid to explain his move, Ter-Petrosyan said he is concerned about
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and does not want the situation in
Armenia to destabilize and play into the hands of Azerbaijan.
It is noteworthy that many of his supporters asked a reasonable
question why Levon Ter-Petrosyan did not care about the threats to
Karabakh in his former radical statements and actions, and he even
announced that the Karabakh problem can not be an excuse against a
resolute struggle against the authorities.
This change significantly affected the number of ANC supporters. Thus,
though the number of protesters grew in February and reached its peak
during the 17 March rally, the rally participants realized that Levon
Ter-Petrosyan does not want to act decisively in spite of its previous
harsh statements in the 1 March rally.
What is the reason for the conciliatory stance of Levon Ter-Petrosyan?
Given the recent reports in the Armenian media, many do not doubt that
there is some agreement between the government and non-parliamentary
opposition achieved through negotiations.
Steps taken by President Serzh Sargsyan to meet requirements of the
opposition testify to this. As is known, the authorities sanctioned
the rally on Freedom Square on 28 April, although they limited the
number of participants using administrative measures. An order was
issues to renew an investigation into the 1 March events at the same
time not allowing involvement of an international commission, contrary
to ANC demands and authorities began to release political prisoners.
News.am news website reported on 29 April quoting Erkir newspaper that
the talks mediated by U.S. ambassador to Armenia Mari Yovanovich and
the authorities were represented by G. Harutyunyan, chairman of the
Constitutional Court and the opposition by ` Levon Zurabyan, former
spokesman to the president Ter-Petrosyan. The parties agreed upon on
three requirements that the authorities were to meet by late May
(http://news.am/rus/reviews/1683.html).
Even though U.S. embassy in Armenia denied its mediation in the
meeting between the opposition and authorities
(http://news.am/rus/news/57690.html), the signs of U.S. interest in
domestic political processes in Armenia can be noticed if one looks at
Ter-Petrosyan's second comeback to politics.
Thus, young political consultants trained in various Western
organizations and funds joined Ter-Petrosyan's team during the 2008
presidential elections.
The same Levon Zurabian, a former analyst for the International Crisis
Group, became the most important and influential of them.
The team of analysts and image-makers of Ter-Petrosyan run the
election campaign using different multimedia platforms such as Youtube
And the decision to abandon the brand Armenian National Movement which
was associated with the "notorious" 1990s among the population was a
well-thought-out move. Ter-Petrosyan entered ??the political arena as
the head of a new project - ANC.
May the power in Armenia change any time soon?
The change of power in Armenia at the present stage and the victory of
relatively pro-Western politician as Ter-Petrosyan, to detriment to
strong pro-Russian forces, would lead to chaos and instability, which
contradicts interests of the West. Serzh Sargsyan fully meets
requirements of forces trying to gain a foothold in Armenia through
the resumption of the Armenian-Turkish talks. This requires
consolidating Serzh Sargsyan's grip on power even through the
irreconcilable opposition, which shares almost the same position with
authorities in foreign affairs, and weaken the geopolitical side
backed rival Robert Kocharyan. That is why Kocharyan's name is present
in an opposition-government dialogue.
Although representatives of the ruling Republican Party keep saying
that dialogue with the opposition took place, the only matter that
Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan can talk about is preventing
Kocharyan from accessing the power and completely eliminating him from
the political scene.
This is proved by Sargsyan's decision to renew investigation into the
1 March events through which he wanted to show that he is not Robert
Kocharyan's successor and intends to play an independent role in
political processes.
Given the relationship between Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharyan, the
factor of the second president could pave the way for negotiations.
The fact that the legitimacy of the 2008 elections were not discussed
at the meeting shows that issues related to Kocharyan were discussed
instead.
The West has the same attitude to legitimacy of authorities in
Armenia. Though Barack Obama met Serzh Sargsyan as a president of
Armenia at the nuclear summit in the U.S., the annual Human Rights
report compiled by the State Department have noted for already third
year that the 2008 elections were conducted with serious violations
(http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/1981699, http:
//www.1in.am/rus/a_a_4475.html). Both the opposition and West seem to
reconcile with this and focus their main efforts on the main goal -
the upcoming parliamentary elections.
What are the expectations for 2011?
Passing a new draft Election Code, which is currently in the second
reading in the Armenian parliament, shows that people have lost the
opportunity to change powers through elections and the only guarantee
that the falsifications in elections will not be tolerated will be the
publication of election lists after voting.
Member of the Heritage parliamentary faction Armen Martirosyan
believes that `Armenian authorities are trying a new game' through
formation of the election commission on professional basis. He says
there is not a single independent structure in Armenia, which is why
formation of such an independent commission could be just imitated.
For this reason, the Heritage party and Dashnaktsutun that feel the
risk of future changes, are unanimous in insisting that commission
must be 100% political and made up of party members, where opposition
and authorities will be represented on 50/50 basis.
In turn, ODIHR and the Venice Commission have provided an opinion on
the draft Election Code of Armenia. They also offered to revise the
order of forming election commissions to ensure independence of their
activity and public trust. So, once the draft is passed, of which all
analysts are confident, elections will be fully controlled by the
Presidential Administration of Armenia.
This ball game will help force the Flourishing Armenia party to
abandon the decision to nominate its list to parliamentary elections
and agree to participate in the common list with partners from the
current coalition: the Republican Party and Armenia and Orinats Yerkir
(Country of Legality). The latter might even join the ranks of the
Republican Party of Armenia, thus showing an example to the
Flourishing Party of Armenia which remains the only appendix of the
ruling coalition.
Armenian National Congress may regain its role of the main opposition
power. Though it will seemingly not win the overwhelming number of
votes, its representation in the Parliament will create a picture
making the return of the second president of Armenia Rober Kocharyan
to power unreal. The latter will have no support left on the political
advance stage thanks to which he would be able to return to active
policy. Creation of a new political power may lead Kocharyan to
complete breakup.
They say in Armenia that the 1 March tragedy was not profitable for
Serzh Sargsyan though beneficiary for Robert Kocharyan who thus
obtained a leverage of influence on Sargsyan. Viktor Sogomonyan, the
press secretary of Robert Kocharyan, said in response to next remarks
on 1 March 2008 tragedy that `only a man of sense could say that 1
March was profitable only for Kocharyan', thus broadening the circle
of those who were interested in 1 March shooting and involuntarily
putting Serzh Sargsyan onto this list.
Sargsyan's urge to launch investigation into 1 March shooting may
provide an answer to the one of the main questions `who ordered the
shooting?!' All incidental facts point to then-president Robert
Kocharyan. Though Sargsyan had been fencing him off the judicial
processes, he can now give the go-ahead to holding Kocharyan
accountable.
The second no less important but still a lateral argument will become
the earlier declared decision of Levon Ter-Petrosyan to run for
presidency in 2013 provided that Robert Kocharyan nominates. Given
the fact that during the meeting of 17 March Levon Ter-Petrosyan
renounced radical ways of fighting for pre-term presidential
elections, it is clear that the authorities will last out well to the
next presidential elections and then Serzh Sargsyan will try to
persuade Kocharyan to give up the struggle for the presidential seat,
citing Ter-Petrosyan's factor as an argument.
Some say Dashnaktsutun and the Flourishing Armenia parties represent
the potential political platform for Kocharyan, but the latest events
and the statements by Flourishing Armenia's leader Gagik Tsarukyan
point that it is not exactly like this. Support to Robert Kocharyan by
the coalition party of Flourishing Armenia is unlikely, since the
leader of this political party Gagik Tsarukyan positioned himself as
an independent but balancing politician over the past years. As a
leader of the second biggest faction in the Armenian parliament,
Tsarukyan is an extremely attractive partner for the speaker of the
National Assembly and Armenia's principal entrepreneur Hovik
Abrahamyan with whom Tsarukyan has kinship.
Raffi Hovanissian (leader of the Heritage Party) was the first
`victim' of cleanup in the political area of Armenia, held by the
Armenian National Congress and Serzh Sargsyan. He realized that the
Republican Party of Armenia and the Armenian National Congress will
never tolerate powers able to obstruct their political goals, in the
parliament. Most evaluated Ter-Petrosyan's refusal to talk to
hunger-striker Hovannisian, as a sign of his unwillingness to put
Hovanissian onto the lists of the Armenian National Congress.
Additionally, ANC and Levon Ter-Petrosyan attempt to remove or
discredit political forces able to become an alternative to them on
the opposition space. By this, ANC is trying to become the only
alternative to the incumbent powers.
Meanwhile, Dashnaktsutun is keeping its strong positions despite
obvious implications of the political cleanup. Therefore, Armenian
National Congress and Republican Party of Armenia may reach an
agreement to `let' ARF Dashnaktsutun into the National Assembly to
ensure the presence of a nationalistic power in the parliament.
It can be said for sure that the future balance of powers in Armenia
will depend on relations between Sargsyan and Kocharyan. Progress in
the political space of Armenia, aimed at forming conditions for
structuring a new political reality, is evident. Vulnerability of the
foreign political positions of Armenia also weakens pressure of powers
on opposition and creates pseudo-democratic situation in the country.
Passing the Election Code in it current variant does not promise
democratic elections in Armenia, while political steps of the
authorities are just tactical actions intended to grade the threats
posed by political oppositions and seize entire control over the
political space.
News.Az
From: A. Papazian