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TBILISI: Russia Winner In Karabakh Conflict

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  • TBILISI: Russia Winner In Karabakh Conflict

    RUSSIA WINNER IN KARABAKH CONFLICT

    The Messenger
    Aug 4 2011
    Georgia

    All the attempts at resolving the Karabakh conflict have proved
    fruitless. Recently, Russia has been very active in this heated issue,
    however no visible results have been yielded; moreover comments have
    been made on the situation which suggests that this tense situation
    could develop into confrontation. Russian analyst Pavel Felgengauer
    in particular predicts the possibility of military action in Karabakh.

    This analyst is famous for the fact that he had predicted the Russian
    attack on Georgia in August 2008 well in advance. Some Georgian
    analysts think however that in reality Felgengauer is a "spokesman"
    for Russian plans and with his prognosis he prepares the public for
    the forthcoming developments. In his interview to radio Liberty he
    stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively getting ready for
    military confrontation. Today neither of these sides are ready to
    make serious concessions so the conflict could escalate into a serious
    regional war. According to the analyst all the mediators so far could
    only facilitate certain loosening of the tension, but nothing more.

    Both the EU and Russia take the position that everything must be done
    to prevent military action. Felgengauer thinks that Russia has been
    thinking of deploying its military forces as a peacekeeping mission
    between the conflicting sides. According to him Russia considers
    the region as a major sphere of its influence historically and this
    possible development of course will serve its interest. Felgengauer
    thinks that military confrontation will not start in 2011. He also
    considers that openly Russia will not take sides. There is a Russian
    military base located in Armenia but the Russians do not have land
    access to this base. The base is located on the border of Turkey so
    presumably it is not in place to deter Azerbaijan but rather to repel
    Turkey, thinks Felgengauer.

    Georgian public organization Experts' Club commented on Felgengauer's
    statement and labeled it as the voice of Moscow interest. According
    to this opinion, the Kremlin wants to deploy peacekeeping forces
    between the rival sides. But nobody should forget the result of Russian
    peacekeeping forces deployed in Georgia's breakaway territories. The
    Azerbaijani leadership knows about Georgia's experience and it is
    against the deployment of Russian forces as peacekeeping units.

    Besides, Russia is openly recognized as a strategic partner of
    one of the conflicting sides - Armenia. Experts' Club thinks that
    Felgengauer's position reveals Moscow's interests to confront
    militarily Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this case Russia will become
    able to further secure its dominant position in the south Caucasus.

    Moreover the Kremlin will try to involve Georgia into the conflict
    with possibly one eye on Georgia's eastern regions.

    Meanwhile Azerbaijan and Armenia are continuing to increase their
    military capacity. Armenia is sure that it will not lose the possible
    war, because it relies on Russian support. Azeris hope that Russia
    will not get involved in any possible conflict in pursuit of its
    own interests.

    So, to summarize the current situation is very comfortable for Moscow
    because there is neither peace nor war in Karabakh and both sides
    appeal to Russia to be the master of ceremonies. If war breaks out
    again, Russia will remain a key player in exercising its influence
    in the region. Therefore, no matter what happens, Russia is the winner.



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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