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Azerbaijani Lobby And Medvedev

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  • Azerbaijani Lobby And Medvedev

    AZERBAIJANI LOBBY AND MEDVEDEV
    Igor Muradyan

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics24014.html
    Published: 12:41:00 - 01/11/2011

    In talks with Russian experts, attention is drawn to the fact that
    in addition to the task of establishing new relations with Turkey the
    Azerbaijani lobby has serious importance in relation to the Karabakh
    issue in Moscow, which is closely related to many officials and,
    above all, with President Dmitry Medvedev. The features of the personal
    relationships between Azeri lobbyists and Dmitry Medvedev became known,
    who is one way or another connected with the oil and gas projects.

    During Medvedev's visit to Baku, no final decisions were made but some
    intentions and duties were outlined. V. Putin is no less interested
    in oil and gas plans. At the same time, even such a force which is a
    complex of oil and gas interests is unable to ignore the interests
    of Armenia. Overall, it was necessary to draw the conclusion that
    the oil and gas issue is not the field where the Armenian interests
    are worth being sacrificed for the sake of someone.

    The Russian political analysts integrated with government agencies who
    held for many years the view that it is in the interests of Russia to
    "freeze" the Karabakh issue now offer the following. In their opinion,
    Armenia would categorically reject that plan, and Russia would not
    have the political resources to continue insisting on this project. At
    the same time, it is not recommended to automatically ask for support
    from the U.S. but to build a more principled position with Russia.

    We think that this is not just an isolated recommendation of
    situational character but a thoroughly worked out and meaningful
    technology. It is worth mentioning that significant confusion and lack
    of confidence can be observed among Russian analysts and political
    planners on the "Karabakh project". The greater part of the analytical
    community of Russia thinks this project is completely unrealizable.

    According to the assessments of Russian analysts, the current regime
    in Russia demanded from special services to run their opinions on the
    "Karabakh project" which brought about an inadequate situation. The
    leaders of Russian special services did not complicate the situation
    and did not give negative assessments. Analysts working in special
    services, particularly in the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia,
    think the project contains new interesting proposals and stances
    and can underlie the establishment of Russian policies in the South
    Caucasus. The FIS of Russia recommends to focus on the phase of
    agreeing proposals and positions, as well as to ensure consensus in
    Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is a hard task.

    Currently, the regime of the president of Russia is not trying to
    involve representatives of research institutes and centers in the
    development of the project. The Russian experts who visited NKR think
    that the "Karabakh project" actually is nothing but political adventure
    but they do not voice this stance.

    Proceeding from the work done, we can draw the conclusion that the
    "Karabakh project" has been initiated mainly by the Azerbaijani lobby
    in Moscow which has strong ties with Medvedev. We need to note that
    the Russian PM Putin and his people from the staff of the President,
    as well as the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have not yet expressed
    enthusiasm and favorable expectations regarding this project. All
    this produces the impression that Medvedev has been offered very
    bad and useless projects to solve the Karabakh issue. In addition,
    they made the offers in a very unfavorable situation, which brought
    about the failure of these attempts.

    I am not sure about the combination of Russia's strategic interests
    and objectives of interest groups in Moscow but both have their role
    in the promotion of "the Karabakh project". The United States, despite
    the difficult political situation, does not abandon self-confident
    action in the South Caucasus. The U.S. influence could weaken in the
    region for ensuring which a lot of political and economic resource
    had been used.

    Given the highly critical behavior of the authorities and the society
    in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic regarding Russia's plans, "signals"
    from the U.S. to support the NKR position would be very helpful.

    At the same time, some criticism of Russian projects brings enthusiasm
    and positive expectations among the Armenian society which is ready
    to review its idea of Russia's policy. Armenia has launched a public
    and political debate which needs external support because there is an
    issue of national security. In reality, the U.S. is not that inclined
    to "save" someone, especially to "save" from Russia. On the contrary,
    the Americans are eager to kindle problems between most countries
    and Russia.

    However, the U.S. clearly demonstrates to Russia, as well as to all
    the others, the impossibility to sacrifice everything in the name of
    oil and gas. These resources have their price, including the political
    price. Mistaken is the person who thinks that everything is allowed
    for the sake of oil.


    From: Baghdasarian
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