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Could Iranian Sanctions Close Armenia's Third Border?

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  • Could Iranian Sanctions Close Armenia's Third Border?

    COULD IRANIAN SANCTIONS CLOSE ARMENIA'S THIRD BORDER?
    Giorgi Lomsadze

    EurasiaNet.org
    Nov 29 2011
    NY

    Landlocked Armenia's world is claustrophobic enough as it is,
    with borders closed to the left and right with neighbors Turkey and
    Azerbaijan. Now, according to ex-Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian,
    a fresh series of international sanctions against Iran threatens to
    shut Armenia's third, southern border as well, and choke off a key
    trade route -- a development that "Armenia cannot afford," he told
    Al Jazeera.

    With some $300 billion in bilateral trade turnover a year, Iran is
    Armenia's fourth largest trade partner. Tehran, eager for clout in the
    region, has been keen to take that partnership still further, but these
    plans could be jeopardized by Western efforts to starve the Iranian
    government into abandoning its nuclear ambitions, Oskanian reasoned.

    "Clearly those [new] sanctions are going to bite Armenia" and
    "will be tantamount for Armenia to a third closed border," Oskanian
    said. He noted that Yerevan will have no other choice but to respect
    its obligations to the West and enforce the sanctions. The European
    Union is the main outlet for Armenian goods and Armenia, its economy
    still trying to stagger out from under the effects of the international
    financial crisis, is a recipient of Western aid.

    If the border with Iran effectively shuts down, that would leave
    Armenia with only a northern, land-based trade gate. This route
    lies across Georgia -- not exactly a bosom buddy, historically -- to
    Armenia's biggest trade partner and ally, Russia. But Georgian-Russian
    tensions cast a pall on the reliability of this route.

    Desperate for foreign investment and trade opportunities, Armenia,
    which saw its Moody's rating downgraded recently, does not have much
    incentive simply to sit and wait for Tbilisi and the Kremlin to patch
    things up.

    Ever the chess player, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is now
    working to strengthen ties with somewhat friendly Georgia. On November
    29, he was warmly received in Tbilisi by Georgian President Mikheil
    Saakashvili, who again enthused about his idea of uniting the Caucasus
    (minus Russia) through a common economic space and potential political
    union.

    But while Georgia hopes to diminish Russia's role in the Caucasus,
    Armenia's main economic interest is make sure that Georgia functions
    well as a layover point for Russia-bound goods. That could mean more
    visits for Sargsyan in store.

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