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BAKU: NK resolution requires 'political will' in Armenia, Azerbaijan

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  • BAKU: NK resolution requires 'political will' in Armenia, Azerbaijan

    Karabakh resolution requires 'political will' in Armenia, Azerbaijan.

    Mon 30 April 2012 10:33 GMT | 11:33 Local Time

    Ekaterina Romanova

    News.Az interviews Ekaterina Romanova, assistant professor at the
    School of International Service, American University.
    Do you agree with the view that the August 2008 war with Georgia
    undermined Russia's influence as a peacekeeper in the solution of
    regional conflicts?

    When it comes to assessing Russia's role as a mediator or peace broker
    in the South Caucasus, it has never been about Russia being neutral.
    The Russian government has always made it clear that it treats the
    South Caucasus as its sphere of influence and will protect its
    interests in the region. It was a question of the trust which the
    countries had in Russia's authority. Georgia had lost that trust even
    prior to the August war. Armenia and Azerbaijan still prefer to see a
    role for Russia in the conflict resolution process (Armenia more so
    than Azerbaijan, but there are other reasons than the 2008 war that
    play into that).

    How do you assess Russian peacemaking in the Karabakh conflict? Does
    it seem effective?

    The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is too stalled to evaluate its effectiveness.

    How will Russian mediation on Karabakh be influenced by Putin's
    presidency, given that the present Russian leader was very active in
    attempts to reconcile Azerbaijan and Armenia?

    To answer this question, one has to consider the extent to which the
    actions of President Medvedev were independent/or personal decisions
    or a reflection of the collaborative work of the Medvedev-Putin tandem
    and the stance of the Russian government. Since Vladimir Putin never
    left the government, his return to the presidency will not
    significantly alter Russia's position and involvement in the region
    and in the peace process. It is important for the Russian government
    to remain involved in the South Caucasus, including in the peace
    processes with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    The EU has stated its intention to begin a role in resolving the
    Karabakh conflict. What might be the result of an increased role for
    Europe?

    The EU has been more active in the conflict resolution processes in
    the Caucasus in general for some time now and it would like to
    continue this. It can put more pressure on the conflict parties to
    consider a peaceful conflict resolution process. But external
    pressures have limited effect, if there is no political will and
    public support for peacebuilding in the countries. The EU can use its
    leverage to encourage the countries' governments to change their
    rhetoric about the conflict and build up of enemy images, and to start
    implementing confidence building measures through soft power
    mechanisms and unofficial citizens' diplomacy.

    What might be the implications of the worsening situation over Iran
    (even going so far as war in Iran) for the neighbouring South
    Caucasus, which itself suffers from armed conflict?

    There is potential for an overspill effect and destabilization of the
    situation. The broader regional insecurity can have a significant
    impact on the economic aspect, but the social one - population
    displacement - should not be forgotten. No one will benefit from a
    conflict in Iran and, hopefully, that dangerous scenario will be
    avoided.

    F.H.
    News.Az




    From: A. Papazian
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