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GOD FORBID A WORST THING...
Arman Galoyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview26916.html
Published: 16:22:01 - 20/07/2012
Interview with the member of the Armenian National Congress, Doctor
of Economy Zoya Tadevosyan
The authorities confirmed the rumors that they are negotiating the
gas price with Russia. What consequences can the gas price increase
bring about?
As a rule, it is a factor generating crisis. It has been that way
since the years of the "Big depression" and this trend is present up
to now. So, since the crisis is still underway, the price increase
will deepen it even more because the enterprises using gas will
increase prices to their goods, so the level of consumption will
decrease which will bring about the reduction of scales of production.
If the production is meant for export it will lead to the decline in
the export competition. Then, the gas price increase will decrease
the real income of large parts of the society.
Is there a political subtext under all this?
Sure there is. During the 20 years of the political independence,
the Republic of Armenia has been more dependent than ever. The danger
is that Russia has the 100% of gas supply, 22% of import, 30% of the
trade banks assets, 70% of insurance companies. Among the creditor
partners of Armenia, Russia is the second after the International
Development partnership. The loan support of Russia reached 20.5%.
According to approximate assessments, Russian companies have acquired
in our country assets costing 2.9 billion the 35.1% of which has been
invested in production infrastructures. This is not just statistics,
but this makes it clear that Russia has not only geoeconomic but also
geopolitical interests in Armenia.
Why do they increase the gas price on the eve of presidential
elections?
The enhancement of the gas price for Russia aims at making its treasury
richer by creating "anti-crisis funds" on account of vassal countries,
while we can connect this step with the elections in Armenia only
after we learn the name of the Russian candidate for president. Let's
wait till September, though we can guess now who the candidate is. God
forbid a worst thing.
May all this lead to a social rebellion?
The rebellion is a category alien to the social-economic and political
situation of Armenia. Protests are possible but revolts - never.
Protest actions will be held with the participation of those who
don't deal with the gas market. I don't think everyone will go out
demanding the government's resignation.
Is Congress ready to lead the social rebellion because it seems
Congress has been passive recently and there are concerns that the
ANC will limit its activities to those in the parliament?
Since I rule out the rebellion, I think all the other concerns are
improper.
Why are people leaving the Congress?
The reason for the events in the Congress is the tactics of the ANC
to make the PAP opposition. PAP became an alternative or reserve
opposition. Time will show.
There have been opinions that Congress is collapsing.
If Congress does not start the process on the president's resignation,
I'm afraid these opinions will come true.
Arman Galoyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview26916.html
Published: 16:22:01 - 20/07/2012
Interview with the member of the Armenian National Congress, Doctor
of Economy Zoya Tadevosyan
The authorities confirmed the rumors that they are negotiating the
gas price with Russia. What consequences can the gas price increase
bring about?
As a rule, it is a factor generating crisis. It has been that way
since the years of the "Big depression" and this trend is present up
to now. So, since the crisis is still underway, the price increase
will deepen it even more because the enterprises using gas will
increase prices to their goods, so the level of consumption will
decrease which will bring about the reduction of scales of production.
If the production is meant for export it will lead to the decline in
the export competition. Then, the gas price increase will decrease
the real income of large parts of the society.
Is there a political subtext under all this?
Sure there is. During the 20 years of the political independence,
the Republic of Armenia has been more dependent than ever. The danger
is that Russia has the 100% of gas supply, 22% of import, 30% of the
trade banks assets, 70% of insurance companies. Among the creditor
partners of Armenia, Russia is the second after the International
Development partnership. The loan support of Russia reached 20.5%.
According to approximate assessments, Russian companies have acquired
in our country assets costing 2.9 billion the 35.1% of which has been
invested in production infrastructures. This is not just statistics,
but this makes it clear that Russia has not only geoeconomic but also
geopolitical interests in Armenia.
Why do they increase the gas price on the eve of presidential
elections?
The enhancement of the gas price for Russia aims at making its treasury
richer by creating "anti-crisis funds" on account of vassal countries,
while we can connect this step with the elections in Armenia only
after we learn the name of the Russian candidate for president. Let's
wait till September, though we can guess now who the candidate is. God
forbid a worst thing.
May all this lead to a social rebellion?
The rebellion is a category alien to the social-economic and political
situation of Armenia. Protests are possible but revolts - never.
Protest actions will be held with the participation of those who
don't deal with the gas market. I don't think everyone will go out
demanding the government's resignation.
Is Congress ready to lead the social rebellion because it seems
Congress has been passive recently and there are concerns that the
ANC will limit its activities to those in the parliament?
Since I rule out the rebellion, I think all the other concerns are
improper.
Why are people leaving the Congress?
The reason for the events in the Congress is the tactics of the ANC
to make the PAP opposition. PAP became an alternative or reserve
opposition. Time will show.
There have been opinions that Congress is collapsing.
If Congress does not start the process on the president's resignation,
I'm afraid these opinions will come true.