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ANKARA: The Caucasus: A Region in the Shadow of the Tensions of the

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  • ANKARA: The Caucasus: A Region in the Shadow of the Tensions of the

    The Caucasus: A Region in the Shadow of the Tensions of the Middle East

    Hasan Selim Ozertem

    http://www.turkishweekly.net/columnist/3710/the-caucasus-a-region-in-the-shadow-of-the-tensions-of-the-middle-east-.html
    Thursday, 3 January 2013

    The countries of the Caucasus have been critically important in
    Turkish foreign policy since 1991.

    The basic reasons why the Caucasus has to be followed closely by
    Ankara include the frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Abkhazia
    and the fact that the north Caucasus is a trouble spot for Russia
    while the region itself is a transit point onto the Caspian Basin.

    Overall, 2012 was a year in which the existing dynamics of the region
    did not change greatly. In the northern Caucasus, relative stability
    was achieved as the government of Ramzan Kadyrov worked to bring it
    under control but increased the number of attacks on security forces
    in Dagestan and Ingushetia, which is a source of anxiety for the
    coming year. In particular the attacks undermine Russian policies
    aimed at preserving the status quo in the southern Caucasus and
    suggest that a different approach will be required in the coming
    period.

    Bearing in mind that five of the 10 most backward regions in the
    Russian Federation are located here, the need for Moscow to strengthen
    its regional development and integration-based policies emerges even
    more strongly. A close study of Moscow's policies shows that the
    dispute centers on not so much the internal dynamics and problems of
    the regions in the country but rather its general political situation.
    In Russia, where Vladimir Putin has once more been elected president,
    the debate over the nature of the regime has quickened. However,
    within this process, affairs in the south Caucasus can be said to head
    the list of developments to which Moscow pays close attention. Turkey,
    which has recently been attempting to design more pipeline projects in
    the region, is thus also closely concerned with events in the
    Caucasus.

    The Nagorno-Karabakh Dispute in the south Caucasus

    Although Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a cease-fire agreement in 1994,
    no one would claim that there has yet been a final settlement in the
    region. The dispute has the effect of isolating Armenia from many
    projects, but for both sides the existing paradigm in the arms race
    seems to have changed this year. Azerbaijan plans to spend $1.9
    billion on weapons in 2013, while Armenia has increased its defense
    budget for 2013 by about 15 percent above that of the previous year to
    $450 million.

    The real problem is not increasing expenditure, but rather the $1.6
    billion agreement which Azerbaijan signed with Israel during 2012. The
    sale of unmanned drones and air defense systems agreed on between them
    has created unease, not just in Yerevan, but also in Teheran. Iran has
    complained vehemently about its suspicions that the Israeli drones,
    which have begun flights in the region, could be collecting
    intelligence along its borders. Speaking to Foreign Policy magazine an
    unnamed American official comments that the rapprochement has opened a
    new page in the story of Iranian-Israeli tension and that he has
    received news that Israel has been given an air base in Azerbaijan and
    that these reports are also mentioned by Israeli sources. No matter
    how many Azerbaijani officials have subsequently denied these reports,
    the arms race in the region is accelerating because of the lack of a
    settlement in Karabakh and one can say that new dynamics have emerged
    as far as the parameters of regional security are concerned.

    Armenia's search for a route to Russia via Abkhazia

    While Azerbaijan has been trying to change the rules of the game by
    involving Israel, Armenia hopes to be able to break the policies of
    continuing to isolate it via Abkhazia. After the Georgian presidential
    elections, Bidzina Ivanishvili took over the presidency from Mikheil
    Saakashvili, an event which returned the question of reopening the
    currently idle railway line between Abkhazia and Georgia to the
    agenda. Yerevan was also partially cut off economically from Russia
    after the Russian-Georgian war of 2008 because the Lars border
    crossing ceased to operate fully. The prospect of the reopening of the
    Abkhazia-Georgia rail connection is thus causing some excitement in
    Armenia. As the line could easily transport products from heavy
    industries, it is being closely monitored in Armenia. Yerevan aims to
    speed up the logistical time for consigning goods to and from Russia
    by using the railway lines in Georgia. It also estimates that its
    costs will fall as a result.

    Baku is rather uncomfortable about this prospect and has warned
    Tbilisi of the possibility that an unwelcome process could emerge
    regarding Azerbaijan's relations with Abkhazia. For the Armenian head
    of state, President Serzh Sarksyan, who is expected to run for
    re-election in 2013, it signals a very important development. His
    party managed to garner more votes in the 2012 general elections than
    in 2007, so the possibility of opening a corridor to Russia, which
    might make Armenian economically more comfortable, might strengthen
    Sarksyan's position further still.

    Add the fact that Azerbaijan is also due to have presidential
    elections in October 2013, and the probability increases that
    nationalist rhetoric will strengthen in the Caucasus this year and
    that there will be a hot summer in Nagorno-Karabakh. President Haydar
    Aliyev is due to complete his second term in office and whether he
    will run as a candidate for the third time is a key question for
    Azerbaijan. To date there has been no very definite pronouncement on
    this issue from Aliyev but a major surprise is not expected.

    Seen from Turkey's standpoint, the departure of former President
    Saakashvili will make it more important to maintain the current state
    of relations with Georgia during 2013. This also being the transit
    route for lines coming from Azerbaijan, it is -- in the words of the
    Caucasian Strategic Researches Centre's director, Hasan Oktay -- our
    third doorway to the east, after Iran and Armenia. The fact that it
    seem to be quite impossible to overcome the ongoing political crisis
    with Armenia limits Turkey's options in this regard. At the same time,
    2013 must also be a year in which work on the Trans Anatolian Natural
    Gas Pipeline (TANAP) project accelerates. It is due to begin with the
    construction of the Azerbaijan section.

    The agreement has been ratified by the Azerbaijani National Assembly
    and negotiations are currently under way over the foreign stakes in
    the project. Assuming that they become clear and the first
    groundbreaking takes place in 2013, TANAP is due to be completed and
    start operations in 2018. So, taking all these developments into
    account, with two important elections and a mega project coming up,
    the Caucasus is set to become one of the main focuses of Turkish
    foreign policy.




    From: A. Papazian
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