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Azerbaijan, Armenia Deal on Karabakh 'Unlikely'

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  • Azerbaijan, Armenia Deal on Karabakh 'Unlikely'

    The Moscow Times, Russia
    March 31 2013

    Azerbaijan, Armenia Deal on Karabakh 'Unlikely'

    31 March 2013 | Issue 5099
    Reuters


    PARIS - Azerbaijan and Armenia are unlikely to reach a deal this year
    over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and there is a risk
    of the region sliding toward a war, the enclave's prime minister said
    Thursday.

    A conflict between ethnic Azeris and Armenians erupted in 1991 over
    the area, a mountainous enclave within Azerbaijan with a majority
    Armenian population, after Armenian-backed forces seized it and seven
    surrounding Azeri districts.

    A truce was signed in 1994 after about 30,000 people had been killed.
    But there was no peace treaty, and violence still flares sporadically
    along the ceasefire line and Azerbaijan's border with Armenia.

    Foreign governments are wary of skirmishes in the South Caucasus due
    to concerns that a new conflict could erupt, threatening pipelines
    that carry natural gas and oil to Europe in an area where Russia,
    Turkey and Iran all have strategic interests.

    "If we manage to end the year peacefully then that will be
    constructive, but in terms of concrete accords to resolve the
    conflict, I'm not optimistic for this year," Nagorno-Karabakh's prime
    minister, Arayik Haroutiounian, said in Paris during a visit to meet
    Franco-Armenian investors.

    The enclave of 160,000 people runs its own affairs with heavy Armenian
    military and financial backing. Armenia has a security deal with
    Russia, while Azerbaijan has one with Turkey.

    Oil-producing Azerbaijan, host to global majors including BP, Chevron
    and ExxonMobil, often threatens to take it back by force, though it
    says it favors diplomacy.

    "Neither Karabakh nor Azerbaijan would benefit from a war because I
    don't think either country would win outright, but we can't rule it
    out," Haroutiounian said.

    While he said Nagorno-Karabakh would not strike first, his
    administration had, like Azerbaijan, steadily increased arms imports
    to ensure that it could defend itself.

    "I think that a new war would lead to a huge humanitarian crisis and
    be extremely bloody," he said. "The losses would be much greater than
    before - hundreds of thousands killed and injured - because of the
    arms race of the last few years."

    There have been several rounds of talks between the neighbors since
    1994. The foreign ministers of both countries met this month for
    informal talks mediated by Russia, France and the United States in a
    team known as the Minsk Group.

    Those talks, which do not include Nagorno-Karabakh representatives,
    have yet to yield any results, although there is hope that the
    re-election of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan will give fresh
    impetus to finding a solution.

    Sargsyan has previously accused Azerbaijan of accumulating a
    "horrendous quantity" of arms to prepare for a resumption of fighting.
    But he has also said he wants a negotiated deal.

    Haroutiounian, who fought in the 1991-94 conflict, said that for the
    moment public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia was not ready for a
    compromise, making it much harder for their leaders to accept any
    settlement.

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/azerbaijan-armenia-deal-on-karabakh-unlikely/477700.html

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