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Is Karabakh Map Again Played?

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  • Is Karabakh Map Again Played?

    IS KARABAKH MAP AGAIN PLAYED?

    The significant accumulation of Azerbaijani militants on the border
    with Armenia, according to military psychologist David Jamalyan,
    is determined by their wish to escalate the situation on the eve of
    Serzh Sargsyan's inauguration. He says since Serzh Sargsyan is a more
    pro-Armenian figure who has a more categorical view on the Karabakh
    issue, Azerbaijan needs that his positions in Armenia weaken and
    that people are afraid of sending their sons to the line of contact
    accusing Serzh Sargsyan of lack of security.

    Last week, representatives of the ministry of defense stated several
    times about the accumulation of Karabakh militants on the border and
    warned about the possible attacks. This information caused suspicion
    of many Armenian experts that on April 9 when the opposition will
    hold the parallel inauguration, the Karabakh map will be played.

    This map has been played in the Armenian political life very often:
    in the tensest moments for the power, the situation on the border was
    heating up and the opponents were immediately accused of splitting
    the national unity threatening the national security. There have even
    been diversion attacks, which killed dozens of innocent youths. As
    a result, opponents announced they didn't intend to go against the
    national security, as no one could tell for sure, whether it was an
    artificial tension, or Azerbaijan was preparing a provocation.

    It is not known whether the current tension on the border will be
    the regular platform for national unity. God willing, everything will
    end without victims and destructive provocations.

    Nevertheless, certain underwater processes are happening also in
    the Karabakh conflict. Minsk Group co-chairs who visited Armenia
    and Artsakh last week, said that they had some new ideas. Today,
    they will discuss them in Baku after which they will go to Artsakh
    and will probably issue the relevant statement there.

    It is unlikely that these ideas contain the final settlement of the
    conflict, not least because elections in Azerbaijan are due in autumn.

    But some proposals for open communication and participation in the
    common regional projects are likely. In any case, the Azerbaijani
    foreign minister hinted that Armenia can join the Baku, Ankara
    and Tbilisi project. True, if "they withdraw from the occupied
    territories." That is, this is another bluff, as Armenia will never
    agree to such a condition.

    The information reported by AzeriDefence.com that Russia and Azerbaijan
    suspended negotiations over the weapon supply is interesting. It is
    noted that Azerbaijan refused buying new rescue helicopters, T-90S
    tanks and armored vehicle BMP T, anti-aircraft missiles and else. So,
    it is not ruled out that Russia is also interested in increasing
    tension on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Naira Hayrumyan 17:56 02/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/29491

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