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Is This How Our Free and Independent Armenia Should Be?

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  • Is This How Our Free and Independent Armenia Should Be?

    Is This How Our Free and Independent Armenia Should Be?

    http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/11/02/is-this-how-our-free-and-independent-armenia-should-be/
    By Michael Mensoian // November 2, 2013


    Let's begin by saying that we are proud to have a free and independent
    Armenia. That our country has been able to survive a brutal baptism,
    overcoming the devastating Spitak earthquake in 1988 during the waning days
    of the Soviet Union and the catastrophic collapse of its economy when the
    Bolshevik's socioeconomic experiment in state building self-destructed. It
    was an experiment that ignored accepted economic principles and the
    inextinguishable desire and determination of captive ethnic people to
    maintain their unique cultures. In addition to these significant obstacles,
    from its very inception Armenia was caught between its dependence on Moscow
    and its interest in strengthening its relationship with the West.

    During these 22 tumultuous years, the three administrations that have
    governed Armenia have been challenged to balance the country's independence
    with the demands of Russian interests in the South Caucasus; the genocidal
    proclivity of Turkish-Azeri leaders; and the realization that its future is
    best oriented toward Western Europe. During these years the country has had
    all of the trappings that characterize a going political entity. Progress
    has been made and if we were to compare the Armenia of today with the
    Armenia of some 20 years ago, the progress has been palpable.

    However, having noted the success in maintaining this precarious balance
    and the progress that has been made, it would be unfair to gloss over the
    adverse impact that these same administrations have had on Armenia and its
    people. Some blame for what currently plagues Armenia lies with the
    opposition parties and their respective leadership. How the blame is
    apportioned is unimportant. The fact that there is blame to share is
    important.

    A recent conference organized by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs
    and the UN Office in Armenia was held in Yerevan to explore the demographic
    challenges facing the country. For the administration to have its Labor and
    Social Affairs Ministry hold or even participate in such a conference is
    the height of cynicism: It is the unholy alliance between the ruling
    Republican Party and the oligarchs that has prolonged and intensified the
    economic malaise that plagues Armenia, and that is responsible for the
    demographic challenges the conference was to consider.

    Yet, Deputy Minister Ara Petrosyan carried out his ministerial duties by
    citing the `Spitak earthquake=85the collapse of the Soviet Union, the
    Karabagh War, and the transport blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey'
    as reasons Armenia has such a high level of poverty and unemployment.

    Another factor for the serious decline in the annual population count is
    the below replacement-level fertility rate. The low birth rate in Armenia
    is not necessarily the same reason for the low birth rate that the
    conferees cited for developed countries, where opportunity costs are a
    significant factor in delaying marriages as well as encouraging lower birth
    rates. A study introduced by one of the participants `revealed that
    emigration of young=85[Armenians] is determined by the lack of opportunities
    for professional growth and development, as well as the wish to live in a
    society with better protection of human rights, democracy, and governance.'
    An endless number of studies on countries experiencing similar problems
    already cite these same reasons.

    Another survey introduced during the conference indicated that emigration
    was encouraged by `systemic issues such as centralization of business and
    monopolies and issues in education and the judicial sector.' In addition,
    `the business sector is handled by a group of people who are also directly
    involved in public administration, supervising specific areas or sectors of
    the economy. This makes smaller competitors vulnerable, causing
    unemployment and unequal distribution of income throughout society.' Should
    any of these conclusions really come as a revelation to members of
    parliament and representatives of relevant government agencies who were in
    attendance, or to the opposition political leaders who sat on the sidelines
    while the very reasons cited were taking root.

    The same tired excuse that the closed border with Turkey and Azerbaijan has
    been a contributing factor to Armenia's problems was mentioned again. This
    excuse will never die. Armenia did not close the border and if Turkey had
    allowed it to remain open, Armenia would have been overwhelmed by a Turkish
    economy that can out-produce at a lower per unit cost practically anything
    that Armenia produces or is likely to produce. Consider that Turkey's Gross
    Domestic Product (GDP) is over 45 times greater than Armenia's GDP. The
    argument in support of an open border is that it would reduce the cost of
    goods that Armenians purchase. True, but how does Armenia pay for these
    goods? Since when is having an unfavorable balance of payment situation
    sound economics? Do proponents of an open border suggest that Turkey
    exploit workers in Armenia to produce the goods Armenians need? Who
    benefits? The Turkish businessman, or our connected politicians and
    oligarchs, or both. An open border without proper safeguards (which are
    most likely to be determined by the same unholy alliance of politicians and
    oligarchs that rule Armenia) would not benefit the Armenian worker and his
    family. In all likelihood, the Turkish lira would replace the Armenian dram
    as the currency of choice. Like Russia, Turkey would serve as a second
    magnet attracting our young people in search of employment and other
    opportunities.

    Unfortunately, one can easily be misled by the veneer of vitality observed
    in Yerevan, which successfully masks the problems that engulf our country.
    The level of economic development in the country is inflated by the
    development that is taking place in our mayrakaghak (capital
    city) - development, by the way, that follows no comprehensive master plan
    other than to meet the profit motive of entrenched politicians and
    oligarchs. This development does very little to reduce the high level of
    poverty or unemployment; or to increase the limited educational and
    professional opportunities for our young people; or to stem the flow of
    individuals and families forced to leave Armenia in search of a better life.

    Some opposition political parties have announced that they are prepared to
    address the demographic challenges that Armenia faces. Although the intent
    is sincere, it is based on an unrealistic assessment of the situation. The
    demographic challenges - stemming emigration and the below replacement-level
    fertility rate - are inextricably tied to a culture of governance where
    corruption and favoritism permeate all aspects of the economic, political,
    and judicial systems.

    Sad to say, the political parties are in no position to lead a movement for
    change. Let's consider the various groups required for any effort to
    succeed. First and most important are the opposition leaders. Who among
    them has the charisma and the influence to create a working coalition of
    the required constituencies? Consider that there is no significant working
    relationship between any major opposition party and the various groups of
    activists. This should be the first step in broadening the base of any
    political party that is genuinely concerned with seeking change. Gaining
    the support of the electorate would seem to be a priority of the first
    order. If the people who are affected by existing conditions cannot be
    mobilized, what chance is there for change to occur? As it is, a
    significant number of voters most likely have no appetite for confrontation
    or have legitimate reasons to stay above the fray. Consider that some one
    million voters did not participate in the 2013 presidential election.

    The third group essential to creating change lives is the diaspora. A firm
    relationship between opposition leaders and diasporan leaders is, at best,
    a work in progress. Two subsets of leaders can be identified: There are the
    wealthy philanthropists who work independently with government and
    religious leaders in Armenia to underwrite their personal projects. And
    there is a second group of leaders who head the various organizations that
    solicit funds and channel humanitarian, technological, and financial aid to
    Armenia and its people. The projects that are being funded and the aid that
    is being provided are important. However, in large part it is a band-aid
    approach because it responds primarily to the immediate needs of the
    people, such as medical services, meals for the elderly, making potable
    water available, environmental rehabilitation, housing, etc. These are
    among the many needs that the administration has failed to address.
    Underwriting projects and providing aid without any attempt to address the
    policies, corruption, and the oligarchic and oligopolistic systems that are
    directly responsible for the poverty, unemployment, and demographic
    situation that so desparately requires this aid does little to empower the
    people so that they can build a better Armenia and improve their quality of
    life.

    Diasporan leaders have a duty to weigh-in and lend their support to a
    legitimate opposition movement. Many of these diasporan leaders have the
    ear of the president and the Catholicos, meeting regularly when occasions
    demand or when receiving a medal in recognition of their service. Each of
    us has a moral responsibility to help our country. There can be no excuse,
    when we have the opportunity, to turn a blind eye to what we know is the
    cause for the debilitating conditions affecting our people.

    The final group that is a key to real change includes the president and the
    oligarchs who are the beneficiaries of the economic malaise they have
    created. Unfortunately it is not likely that they will acknowledge their
    avarice as being responsible for the existing conditions in Armenia and
    voluntarily change course.

    We are a people with a brilliant history that extends over millennia who
    have overcome adversity so many times in our past. But today, we seem to be
    willing to sit idly by as our country withers slowly and possibly
    irretrievably into oblivion. This is neither an over dramatization or an
    exaggeration of existing conditions in mer mayreni yergir. Our problem is
    that the opposition leaders (group 1) talk a good game, but the results
    never live up to their rhetoric. The electorate (group 2), except for
    energetic groups of activists, for the most part has no sustained appetite
    for confrontation or believes there is no credible opposition to lead them.
    Based on past experiences, they have reason to believe it would be a futile
    effort. The diasporan leaders (group 3) are hesitant, or worse, do not
    believe that they should be involved in the internal politics of Armenia.
    They are doing their duty by underwriting their personal projects or
    funneling aid to our brothers and sisters in need. The only committed,
    determined entity in all of this is the ruling party and the oligarchs
    (group 4) who form the power structure that is the root-cause of the
    problems. They will not voluntarily participate in any effort to change a
    system they oversee that would jeopardize the wealth and influence they
    enjoy.

    Until an effective movement can be formed where there is trust and
    understanding between the opposition political leaders, representative
    sectors of the electorate, and key diasporan leaders, our people will
    continue to experience these unacceptable and demoralizing conditions. Is
    this what our free and independent Armenia should be?


    From: Baghdasarian
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