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ANKARA: Armenia's Security Dilemma Brings It To Eurasian Union

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  • ANKARA: Armenia's Security Dilemma Brings It To Eurasian Union

    ARMENIA'S SECURITY DILEMMA BRINGS IT TO EURASIAN UNION

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Dec 2 2013

    by Alin Ozinian*

    2 December 2013 /

    Developments in the aftermath of bilateral talks between Armenian
    President Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 3 are
    being commented on by the media and Caucasia experts in Turkey.

    During the meeting, Armenia expressed interest in joining the Customs
    Union created by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and in the Eurasian
    Economic Union that will be created in the future. The main argument
    that experts raise, relying on a traditional point of view, is that
    Armenia had remained stuck between the European Union and Eurasian
    Union but in the end, it surrendered to Russia. However, a review
    of the current outlook and developments show that such superficial
    discourses and arguments are not coherent or adequate to explain what
    is really happening.

    In the election campaign on February 2013, Sargsyan defined
    Armenian-Russian relations as strategic whereas when it came to
    relations with the US and Europe, he referred to a good neighborhood.

    Sargsyan clearly stated that the support of Russia should be preserved
    so that they would be able to keep Nagorno-Karabakh. Right after
    the elections, international experts and the media expected that
    cooperation with Russia would be deepened and that in the new era, and
    that Armenia would be in closer cooperation with Russia particularly
    in the field of security.

    Armenia had to develop strong ties with its big brother Russia as
    a result of its one-dimensional policy where it failed to diversify
    its options in the fields of security, military, economy and politics
    since its independence. This option still offered a good perspective
    for Armenia considering the economic embargo imposed by Turkey, which
    had closed their borders, and its deteriorating relations with its
    other neighbors with the exception of Iran.

    Maybe an option for Armenia between the EU and the Eurasian Union never
    existed. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, which has been a
    heated discussion over the last two decades, was not achieved despite
    the reestablishment of diplomatic relations without prior conditions,
    the freezing of progress made through "soccer diplomacy" because of
    the interests of Turkish foreign policy and Turkey's insistence on
    not making any concessions on its position despite the fact that it is
    member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's
    (OSCE) Minsk Group seeking to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the
    recommendations by the US and the EU's efforts under Swiss mediation;
    as a result of this failure, Armenia has been "involuntarily" and
    desperately marching towards its one and only option for the last
    two decades.

    First place in Armenia's foreign trade

    Russia still holds first place in Armenia's foreign trade, some
    national strategic facilities have been transferred to Russia which --
    perhaps intentionally -- does not operate them, Russia has a military
    base in Armenia, there are nearly 2 million Armenians living in
    Russia, most of whom have become Russian citizens, Armenia is almost
    fully dependent on Russia in economic terms (gas, electricity and
    enriched uranium for its Metsamor nuclear power plant); given all
    these factors, it is only natural that Armenia wants to deepen its
    relations with Russia.

    On the other hand, the reservations of Yerevan, which has been
    disturbed by the recent attitude and discourse of Russia on the
    Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the surprise visit to Baku by Putin who
    expressed support for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the coming
    elections, its arms sales to Azerbaijan in large amounts, the Russian
    announcement that the price of gas sold to Armenia would increase
    sharply; in short, the indirect threats and warnings by Russia to
    Armenia were the main reasons and factors for the Armenian government
    making a swift decision to seek admission in the Customs Union.

    Sargsyan's statements that they are ready to take the necessary
    steps were also confirmed by Putin's remarks that they would extend
    assistance to ensure that the process of Armenia's admission would
    be accelerated. In addition, on the occasion of Sargsyan's visit, the
    state-run Russian Railways decided to make a $400-million investment
    in the Armenian railway infrastructure.

    This "carrot diplomacy" was further backed by promises made by Russia's
    former ambassador to Yerevan, who delivered a speech in a meeting on
    Nov. 8 called "Armenia and Customs Union: The social measurement of
    Eurasian integration." Vyacheslav Kovalenko, who pointed out that
    Armenia and Russia are two Christian countries, also argued that
    should Nagorno-Karabakh's independence be recognized, the Republic
    of Nagorno-Karabakh may also be admitted in the Customs Union as
    full member.

    EU acting cautiously

    At the same meeting, the EU commissioner for enlargement said the EU
    is acting cautiously so as not to publicly raise the Nagorno-Karabakh
    issue as a condition, adding that efforts to achieve a deal with
    Azerbaijan should also be increased. Eurasia expert Thomas de Waal
    noted that the Armenian authorities' decision is all about security
    and that they would not dare lose their only military ally. Yerevan's
    alignment with the Eurasian Union was a development which all parties
    would have expected.

    Even though the Armenian people favor European culture and values,
    the vast majority have full confidence in the security service Russia
    provides. But when they recall Turkey's regional and military power
    and its support for Azerbaijan, they feel disappointed. To this
    end, in addition to some of the minor protests in Yerevan and the
    overall state of disappointment, the majority seem to be supportive of
    Sargsyan. The reactions by the opposition -- "We do not want Russia"
    -- will no longer be heard if they come to power because it is all
    about Armenia's security conundrum rather than being a supporter or
    an opponent of the West or Russia.

    Armenia's relations with the EU, as noted by the EU authorities, will
    be preserved in the fields of reforms, democracy, human rights and
    cooperation with civil society. The progress made over time following
    the talks on the issue of facilitated Schengen visa procedures for
    selected delegations is raising hopes.

    While Turkey is physically Armenia's closest and oldest neighbor, this
    role has been replaced by Putin, who said, "Armenia's first trading
    partner is Russia and this trend will continue." If Georgia is taken
    out of the equation between Armenia and Turkey, in other words, when
    the Turkish-Armenian border is reopened and bilateral trade resumes, in
    fact it becomes clear who the unrivaled trading partner of Armenia is.

    After his visit to Switzerland, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
    Davutoglu said, "We are paying attention to normalization of relations
    between Turkey and Armenia." This was really important. As 2015
    approaches, everybody knows that the ball is in Turkey's court. It
    is expected that the government would take steps in the issue of
    the Armenian issue, similar to those taken in respect to the Kurdish
    and the minority issues. If Turkey admits that the protocols between
    Turkey and Armenia, signed four years ago, were frozen by itself for
    some lame excuses and restarts an impartial policy in the region,
    this will not only resolve the issues between the two countries but
    will also liberate Armenia, which has been pursuing an inward policy
    due to security concerns.

    ________________________________

    *Alin Ozinian is an independent analyst.


    From: Baghdasarian
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