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ANKARA: Peace Negotiations In Paris, Border Skirmishes At Home

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  • ANKARA: Peace Negotiations In Paris, Border Skirmishes At Home

    PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN PARIS, BORDER SKIRMISHES AT HOME

    Today's Zaman
    Jan 31 2014

    ZAUR SHIRIYEV

    The past ten days have seen escalating border skirmishes between
    Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, marking one of the most prolonged
    "tit-for-tat" clashes for at least the last three years and with
    several fatalities reported on both sides.

    Along with the worrying fact that the conflicts seem to be continuing,
    the biggest threat is the emergence of biased reports and faked video
    footage. This climate of misinformation is contributing the tension
    and no one knows how or when it will end.

    In the shadow of border skirmishes, on Jan. 24, the foreign ministers
    of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
    met in Paris to follow up on their meeting in Kiev on Dec. 5, 2013.

    The objective was to prepare for a bilateral presidential meeting,
    but the only reported agreement reached was for the OSCE Minsk Group
    co-chairs to travel to the region next month.

    An analysis of the border skirmishes will enable a more detailed
    assessment of the consequences of these current tensions.

    Azerbaijani media reported on the border skirmishes on Jan. 19-20. The
    skirmishes did not raise any flags; they were portrayed as typical
    behavior by Armenian armed forces. But the situation intensified in
    the following days and on the day of the Paris meeting, Azerbaijani
    military aircraft flew over the contact line of Azerbaijani and
    Armenian troops, signaling the worsening situation. This was followed
    by the deaths of Azerbaijani soldiers and officers. The Armenian
    media accused the Azerbaijani side of provoking the Jan. 19-20 border
    skirmishes.

    Local observers from both sides, Armenian experts in particular,
    claimed that Azerbaijan provoked the clashes around the time of the
    Paris meeting in order to bring the international community's attention
    to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, there are several arguments
    against this interpretation:

    First of all, the best way to get the international community's
    attention is to make the Paris meeting a success, i.e., by setting
    the date for the presidential meeting. Given that at the moment,
    the international community is focused on the World Economic Forum
    in Davos, Switzerland, the best venue for discussion of the fragile
    status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would be Davos. Alternatively,
    the 50th Munich Security Forum that will bring together diplomats and
    politicians would be a good place to highlight the issue. Indeed, it
    seems as if the fighting is counterproductive to achieving progress on
    a resolution. As OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair and US State Department
    Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf emphasized, the recent incidents
    undermine negotiations and diminish the prospects for peace.

    Second, in terms of understanding the evolution of the situation,
    it is helpful to analyze the language of the two statements issued by
    the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the Paris meeting
    and the day after. The Azerbaijani ministry's Jan. 24 statement is
    quite diplomatic, indicating prospects for a peaceful resolution with
    references to "succinct, concrete and intense discussion." The same
    statement stressed that the basis for bilateral negotiations is the
    restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan.

    But the very next day, the ministry's second statement used much
    harsher language, declaring that "Armenia continues its provocative
    actions, making threats and purposefully worsening the situation,"
    while speaking about the confidence and peace-building measures in an
    effort to deceive and divert attention. One can argue that this is a
    diplomatic maneuver; it is not in Azerbaijan's interest to highlight
    the border skirmishes. On the other hand, if it was a deliberate
    "maneuver," then it doesn't make sense that the Jan. 24 statement
    was relatively positive. Surely the press office would have drafted
    something more along the lines of, "Due to Armenia's unconstructive
    position the meeting has not achieved any fruitful results."

    The other claim is that Azerbaijan is using these border skirmishes
    to demonstrate official Baku's military power and that Azerbaijan's
    new minister of defense (appointed in October 2013) has been seeking a
    suitable moment to show the Azerbaijani army's combat readiness under
    his command. In reply to this argument, we can say both "yes" and
    "no." "No," because border skirmishes do not provide a good venue to
    showcase military readiness, since in such cases the Azerbaijani army
    forces only serve to prevent Armenia's violations of the ceasefire
    conditions. If the idea was to demonstrate military readiness, then
    a military operation would be required, as well as greater losses by
    the Armenian army.

    On the other hand, we could say "yes" on the basis that since Jan. 25,
    Azerbaijan has been preparing for possibly more serious clashes, as
    the situation continues to intensify. High-level military commanders
    in Baku are sending the message to the public that the country is
    ready for war if diplomatic negotiations fail. Thus, on Jan. 28,
    the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense held a closed discussion on the
    army's combat readiness and the necessary preparation under the Prime
    Minister's chairmanship. Long-term observers can confirm that this
    is a fairly unusual measure and leaking the meeting to the media is
    probably intended to reassure the public.

    In this light, speculation of a worsening situation abounds. The
    major consequence of the border skirmishes could be the failure of the
    Azerbaijani and Armenian presidential meeting, which is anticipated to
    take place around the opening of the Winter Olympics in the Russian
    city of Sochi, between Feb. 7 and 23, where numerous countries'
    presidents will be in attendance. In relation to Sochi, it should also
    be pointed out that the continuation of border skirmishes is not in
    the interests of Russia, as recent terrorist attacks in the run-up
    to the Olympics have already damaged Russia's public image. Further
    indications of instability in the Caucasus region will likely deter
    foreign visitors from going to Sochi. For that reason, it is likely
    that Russia will intervene diplomatically to prevent further border
    clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/zaur-shiriyev_338154_peace-negotiations-in-paris-border-skirmishes-at-home.html

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