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  • New Russian-Turkish Conspiracy

    New Russian-Turkish Conspiracy

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - Saturday, 31 May 2014, 19:55


    Maidan has produced a tremendous effect on most states and not all
    countries have realized the consequences of those developments for
    their countries. In this situation, Turkey has gained considerable
    advantage, which has not been fully covered by international political
    literature, as well as Turkish mass media.

    So far the relations between Turkey and Russia on Ukrainian
    developments have not been substantial, and there is a mere exchange
    of opinions without any radical steps and attempts at escalation.
    However, the meeting of the foreign ministers of these countries in
    Moscow has apparently led to considerable changes in relations,
    including their positions on the topic of Karabakh.

    At the same time, during these developments everyone realized that
    controversies are too strong, and a lasting stage of balanced
    positions has passed while latent issues have actualized. It is
    meaningless to hide these problems, and it should be figured out how
    the Turkish-Russian relations will be developing later.

    Is it possible to return to the previous relations when problems were
    latent, and the sides pretended as if mutual interests may "set off"
    real problems or is there a necessity to set up new relations based on
    compromise and concessions and what concessions will be essential in
    the new state of affairs?

    Apparently, Russia is not prone to return the former nature of
    relations and is trying to achieve a breakthrough in its relations
    with Turkey but it is possible only in case of a principal compromise.
    Over the past 25 years Turkey has made considerable financial and
    political expenditure on creating an ethnic hotbed of Crimean Tatars
    and support to political claims, and Ankara's project is threatened
    now.

    However, Turkey does not give up, and new interests may come up,
    juxtaposed to some extent to American interests and already creating a
    powerful factor of dissatisfaction in the political "field" of Russia,
    which will form a sheer "belt" of dissatisfaction provided the
    activation of Circassia issues.

    Turkey will realize over time that while being part of Ukraine the
    Turkish-Tatar Crimea was in a state of stagnation but had a
    considerable influence on Russia. Under Ukrainian control, this region
    did not have an operational importance while now, being the center of
    a conflict, Crimea is an important tool for different undertakings,
    primarily against Russia.

    Moscow will not understand this, and now they see that Turkish
    positions in Russia are stronger, and Turks have a new strong lever of
    influence on Russia.

    Nevertheless, the key issue remains the extent to which the United
    States will prefer changing his policy on Turkey or continue the
    policy of "double containment" on Turkey and Russia.

    Not only decisions are concerned which have a temporary meaning but
    important strategic issues of security and the United States would not
    hurry to make such decisions unless it notices substantial changes in
    Turkey's policy.

    Nevertheless, it is more important to Turkey to overcome the meaning
    and concept of the "double containment" policy which makes it a
    marginal, an ordinary regional state isolated in every dimension.

    The Turkish political circles fear ending up like Iran, which will be
    reflected in the economy with unpredictable outcome. Turkey has not
    achieved a geopolitical breakthrough in any priority dimension due to
    the policy of the United States and its partners there is a "short
    circuit" of isolation in the Black Sea basic on which Turkey made a
    large bid as a European region which would bring it closer to Europe.

    Now Turkey again needs the Americans and Europeans to block Russians
    in the south because it is believed that only Turkey can fulfill this
    objective. In addition, Turkey has understood that it can have an
    approval of closer rapprochement with Azerbaijan and Georgia when the
    third player in the South Caucasus has stopped being a sovereign
    actor.

    It is not enough, considering that the United States and NATO
    conducted a policy of increasing the distance between Turkey and
    Azerbaijan for 20 years. However, Turkey will not be limited to this.
    It will need new positions not only in the regions but also NATO, as
    well as agreements with the United States.

    The attempts of Turkey and Russia to bring their positions closer
    cannot leave the United States and NATO as mere observers. The United
    States will respond to the Turkish-Russian conspiracy and will not
    allow a violation of the balance of forces in the Black Sea and the
    South Caucasus. The United States will make efforts for quite powerful
    pressure on Turkey.

    Therefore, there are hopes and prospects that the "third force" will,
    nevertheless, emerge in the region which will be responsible for
    intensifying the "mosaic" of the Black Sea-Caucasian region. Turkey
    must react to this U.S. policy and will most probably prefer the
    classical foreign policy, i.e. maintenance of the balance of forces.

    Hence, Turkey will not make a final decision unless it sees which side
    is ready to cede but both sides understand that they will cede in the
    Black Sea-Caucasian region because the United States and its partners
    will not cede anything in the Near East, even at the cost of blockade
    of Russia.

    The bid is on Turkey and Azerbaijan but there are expectations that
    this policy will not last long, and the West will return to the policy
    of "double containment" when the issues of isolation and blockade of
    Russia are resolved.

    For its part, having thwarted Eastern Partnership, Russia has an
    opportunity for a trade-off with Turkey on all the assumed issues,
    including its interests in the South Caucasus. Davutoglu's visit to
    Moscow confirms the assumption that Turkey has not become a tool for
    the United States and remains a serious problem for the Americans, as
    previously.

    Hence, the formation of a "double containment" strategy of Turkey and
    Russia remains actual for the small countries of the South Caucasus
    and soon there may be developments.

    In terms of concept, it still has to be figured out which prospect is
    more dangerous for the countries of the region, the Russian-Turkish
    conspiracy or Turkey as a partner to the United States and NATO
    policy. In this regard, the situation is not so pessimistic despite
    the disaster.

    One way or another, while Turkey and Russia are not ready to agree on
    large-scale issues, they will easily reach an agreement on Karabakh,
    of course, in favor of Azerbaijan. The situation is such that change
    of the balance of forces in favor of Azerbaijan and the international
    isolation of its rival is the key factor of implementation of the
    goals of Turkey and Russia.


    - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32522#sthash.HoLU5gdG.dpuf




    From: A. Papazian
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