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ISTANBUL: Azerbaijan and the two EUs

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  • ISTANBUL: Azerbaijan and the two EUs

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    July 5 2014

    Azerbaijan and the two EUs

    by Amanda Paul


    Of the six countries in the European Union's Eastern Partnership
    (EaP), Azerbaijan is the only one that has not chosen to definitively
    align itself with either the EU or Russia. With the signing of
    Association Agreements with the EU on June 27, Ukraine, Moldova and
    Georgia declared their strategic choice to further integrate with the
    EU and, despite Russian opposition and aggression, stated full
    membership as their goal. Meanwhile, Belarus and Armenia have taken
    another path, choosing Russia's Eurasian Union (EaU).

    Azerbaijan has had a cautious approach, not wanting to openly confront
    Russia. Baku has tried to balance between the two unions.
    Nevertheless, when analyzing Azerbaijan's relationships with the West
    and Russia, it seems that Baku's feet are increasingly under the
    West's table. In fact, this engagement is nothing new. It began 20
    years ago when former President Heydar Aliyev signed the "Oil Contract
    of the Century" with a consortium of Western energy companies. Over
    the last two decades ties with Euro-Atlantic institutions have
    gradually deepened, but Azerbaijan has no aspirations to join either
    the EU or NATO. However, Baku wants Western "know-how" to work on
    modernizing the country and educating the population, including of
    vocational training, best practices for the energy sector and science
    and technology.

    For the EU, Azerbaijan is an important and reliable partner. While
    energy is the backbone of the relations because of Azerbaijan's key
    role in the Southern Gas Corridor, European Commission (EC) President
    Jose Manuel Barroso expressed a desire to deepen ties during a speech
    at Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy on June 12. Today, the two partners
    are moving ahead with a "Strategic Partnership for Modernization
    (SPM)" along with ongoing Association Agreement talks. Negotiations on
    the new SPM agreement have nearly concluded and the EU hopes its
    signing will take place before the current EC term ends in autumn.

    However, this relationship is not without difficulties. While on the
    one hand the EU would like to see Azerbaijan take more steps towards
    improving democracy and human rights, Baku on the other hand would
    like the EU to have a more credible and consistent approach towards
    recognizing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, as it does with other
    EaP countries that have territorial disputes -- Georgia, Moldova and
    most recently Ukraine. Unfortunately, the EU's ongoing ambiguous
    approach towards Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is a thorn in its
    relationship. In fact, all agreements negotiated between the EU and
    EaP states should underline explicit support for territorial integrity
    and put an end to the current selective approach.

    Despite the fact that Azerbaijan has not expressed a desire to join
    the EU, with Russian President Vladimir Putin fixated on "rebuilding"
    the Soviet Union, Baku has come under increasing pressure from Moscow,
    which would like to see Baku in the EaU. In recent weeks Moscow has
    significantly increased its diplomatic activity with a number of
    visits to Baku, including from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,
    who arrived the day after Barroso left.

    Azerbaijan wants good relations with Moscow, but it also wants to
    maintain full control over its foreign and economic policies. Joining
    the EaU would affect this independence. Not only would it have no
    added value for Azerbaijan economically, it would also impinge on
    Azerbaijan's sovereignty. While Russia presently continues to be
    focused on Ukraine and take steps to punish Moldova for its move
    towards the EU, as with the other EaP countries in the region, Russia
    may also try to impact Baku's foreign policy choices by pushing on its
    weak spots. Some 500,000 Azerbaijanis work in Russia; Azerbaijan is
    home to a Russian-speaking Lezgin ethnic minority that Moscow has
    tried to used as a tool to create tension; the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict with Armenia, where Russia is key to any settlement and
    frequently uses as tool; and Georgia. Georgia is important to
    Azerbaijan because it is the transit state for Azerbaijan hydrocarbons
    to European markets. Instability in Georgia could be disastrous for
    Baku.

    Fortunately, the majority of Azerbaijanis watch Turkish television
    rather than Russian, so they have not been exposed to Russia's
    extensive propaganda campaign. Furthermore, there is also broad
    dislike of Russia's leadership, something that has been exacerbated
    since the Russian occupation and annexation of Crimea. Deep resentment
    also continues to exist over the role that Russia has played in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia.

    So, while many people believe Moscow may try to make Baku a tempting
    offer, I doubt that Azerbaijan will accept it.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul_352182_azerbaijan-and-the-two-eus.html

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